Economy
China’s aggregate financing in August tripled to a larger-than-expected CNY 2.43 tr, following a CNY 0.76 tr in July and beating expectations of CNY 2.08 tr. New bank loans doubled, reaching CNY 1.25 tr from CNY 0.68 tr, albeit below expectations. Seasonal…
On Friday, markets got a dismal Labor Market report for Canada. The market consensus expected 15 thousand jobs to be added in August, however 39.7 thousand jobs were lost. This marks the third consecutive monthly decline, bringing the total loss since May to…
Last Thursday, the ECB raised the deposit rate by 75bps to 0.75% – in line with market expectations. The revised economic projections include an increase to the inflation forecasts with an average inflation rate of 8.1% this year (up from 6.8% in the June…
The final estimate of Japan’s second quarter GDP growth indicated that the economy grew at an annualized 3.5% q/q, from 2.2% in Q1 and largely surpassing prior estimates of 2.9%. A 2% q/q growth in business spending was the main driver of the upward revision.…
The softening housing market in the US is unlikely to tip the overall economy into a recession, or to worsen it significantly. We’ve highlighted that the scarcity of homes in the US will put a floor under the decline in home prices and will continue to…
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, although a drop in home prices would have adverse effects on aggregate consumer spending, the impact this time around will be far smaller than during the Great Recession. As occurred with…
The demand normalization away from goods – which have been subject to intense price pressures – to services, is one of the factors that will contribute to lower overall inflation. However, a case can be made that services spending may…
Data from the Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey highlight that the share of households using credit cards, borrowings and other forms of deferring payments has steadily increased since mid-2021. This data corroborates soaring credit card balances over…
Chinese imports and exports significantly missed expectations in August. Exports grew by 7.1% y/y in US dollar terms, down from 18.0% y/y and largely below the 13.0% y/y anticipated. Imports rose 0.3% y/y in August, down from 2.3% y/y in July and below…
BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service concludes that the conditions do not seem to be met for a drastic change in Beijing’s dynamic zero-Covid strategy. China’s transition from zero tolerance to an orderly, managed approach to life with an evolving…