Economy
Canadian, UK, and Euro Area CPI prints for July were released on Tuesday. The UK’s core CPI grew 1.8% y/y and Canada’s three core measures average 2.5% y/y. Meanwhile, the Euro Area faces relatively mute core inflation at 0.7% y/y. This reflects the broader…
European political risk has been falling. As our geopolitical strategists recently highlighted, the probability of an EU break-up dropped to near historic lows and immigration flows have declined. The risk now is that European political uncertainty is…
The labor market is the single most important factor for the Fed’s policy normalization timeline. Results from the New York Fed’s supplemental survey in the August Business Leaders and Empire Manufacturing surveys are instructive. Of the roughly 80% of…
The US Federal Reserve is gearing up for tapering. This is clear from both the minutes of the July FOMC meeting, released yesterday, and the slew of Fed speakers that have lined up behind the idea in recent weeks. Specifically, the July FOMC minutes stated…
Headline Advance Retail Sales for July, released before Tuesday’s open, contracted by 1.1% from June, falling well short of the consensus expectation of a 0.3% decline. The release contributed to a risk-off day in financial markets in which the S&P 500…
US data releases sent a mixed signal on Tuesday. While retail sales disappointed (see The Numbers), factory output surprised to the upside, rising by the most in four months. Notably, capacity utilization climbed 0.7 percentage points to 76.1%, just shy of…
Singapore is a small open economy that is extremely sensitive to fluctuations in the Asian and global manufacturing cycles. The country’s exports have historically been a good leading indicator of global economic activity. This is especially true for its…
Chinese retail sales, industrial production, and fixed assets investment data for July disappointed. Retail sales slowed to 8.5% y/y in July from 12.1%, versus expectations of 10.9%. Similarly, industrial production decelerated to 6.4% y/y from 8.3% while…
Our Global Investment strategists recently highlighted that the possibility of a “goods recession” is among the key risks they are monitoring for signs to reduce equity exposure. The New York Fed’s Empire Manufacturing Survey sent a slight warning on Monday.…