Economy

We prefer to fade the recent fall in yields by moving to neutral on U.K. Gilts and underweight Australia, while maintaining a benchmark overall stance on portfolio duration.

The sinking global credit impulse warns that reflation has not overwhelmed deflationary forces. Financials will continue to suffer, while utilities and retail drug stores will benefit.

The Fed has reason to delay the next rate hike until at least September, even if volatility subsides after the June 23 Brexit vote.

The "reflation trade" is breaking down. Brexit risk is partly at fault; the bigger issue is the lack of a global "spender of last resort." Globally, savings must equal investment. The problem is that desired savings are rising and desired investment is falling. Policy is increasingly reflecting this reality: Fiscal austerity is yielding to stimulus, the obsession with fighting inflation replaced with talk of helicopter money/other radical solutions. Bond yields are likely to stay depressed for the next two years, but could then begin to rise much more than current market expectations. We are closing our short EUR/JPY trade.

Increasing uncertainty over the Brexit vote will keep the Fed from raising its overnight policy rate at this week's FOMC meeting, but it may not keep the USD from rallying in the event of a decisive win for Brexit advocates on June 23.

The exponential rise in banks' non-standard credit assets has occurred in spite of the government's efforts to contain and regulate it. The government does not have full control over shadow banking and non-large banks. These have become a large part of the credit system. Hence, the assumption that the central government in Beijing can sustain any rate of credit growth it desires is overly simplistic. Short small bank stocks in China.

At current levels, Treasury yields are consistent with our assessment of fair value. Further, the Fed's Labor Market Conditions Index does not suggest an imminent recession. Expect payrolls to stabilize above levels consistent with further progress on wage growth and inflation, allowing the Fed to hike rates later this year.

Risk assets will take their cues more from the dollar than the Fed if the euro rises above its 16-month range against the dollar. Retain exposure to energy equities and gold.