Euro Area
Highlights Despite a tough week, the dollar bull market is intact. The U.S. economy's resilience to a strong dollar is growing. But, if Trump wins, the dollar could temporarily sell off against EUR, CHF, and JPY. Favor these currencies against EM and commodity currencies. Thanks to the High Court's Brexit ruling, the outlook for the pound is brightening. Wait for the appeal procedure to be over before implementing directional bets. Feature Despite this week's violent correction in the dollar, we remain dollar bulls. However, the recent reaction of the greenback to the rising probability of a Trump victory raises the need to hedge such an outcome. Still Bullish On The Dollar... The U.S. is unlikely to fall from its perch at the top of the distribution of G10 interest rates, a historically dollar-bullish environment (Chart I-1). Chart I-1Dollar Tailwinds The hidden slack in the U.S. labor market has dissipated. The amount of workers outside of the labor force who do want a job is at 6.2%, a level in line with the readings recorded between 2000 and 2007, when hidden slack was low (Chart I-2). Moreover, wages and salary continue to grow in the national income. Skewing the income distribution away from profits and rents is akin to a redistribution of income away from the top 1% of households, who derive nearly 50% of their income from profits. Importantly, middle-class households have a much higher marginal propensity to consume than rich ones. So great is the difference that since 1981, the 10% increase in the share of national income accruing to the top 1% of households has helped depress consumption by 3%. As a result, income redistribution will depress the U.S. savings rates going forward (Chart I-3). Since 70% of household consumption is geared toward the service sector, a component of the economy where productivity growth is hard to come by, increasing consumption is likely to directly result in job creation. Chart I-2U.S. Wages Can Rise Chart I-3The U.S. Savings Rate Has Downside With the unemployment gap being closed, consumption growth will cause wage growth to accelerate, further supporting consumption. Hence, the Fed can increase rates more aggressively than the 70 basis points priced into the OIS curve until the end of 2019. These kinds of dynamics have historically been very dollar bullish (Chart I-4). Moreover, the feedback loop linking the dollar and financial conditions to the economy is weakening. Not only is the economy increasingly driven by household expenditures, but the weight of commodity and manufacturing capex in the economy has collapsed in response to the dollar's strength (Chart I-5). Even if the sensitivity of these sectors to the dollar and financial conditions is unchanged, their impact on the broad economy has diminished. Chart I-4A Virtuous Circle##br## For The Dollar Chart I-5Lower Impact Of Manufacturing ##br##And Commodities Outside of the U.S. some key factors will prevent a normalization of policy rates in the major economies. Euro area rates will stay depressed for much longer. Conditions to generate inflation are absent. The output gap remains wide and negative, unemployment is significantly above NAIRU, and fiscal austerity, while diminished, is still de rigueur (Chart I-6). While the IMF pegs the output gap at 1.2% of GDP, the ECB estimates it to stand at 6% of GDP. Additionally, the European credit impulse is likely to roll-over. European bank stock prices have led European credit growth. They now point to slowing loan growth (Chart I-7). Even if loan growth were only to stabilize, this would imply a fall in the impulse. Chart I-6Inflationary Pressures##br## In Europe Chart I-7Downside Risk To The##br## Euro Area Credit Impulse These forces will weigh on the euro. The SNB floor under EUR/CHF remains credible and exercised. Therefore, USD/CHF will mostly stay a function of EUR/USD. For Japan, as we highlighted in the September 23 and October 28 reports, conditions are falling into place to see rising wages and inflation expectations. Rates being pegged at 0% until inflation greatly overshoots 2% will lower Japanese real rates along with the yen. Bottom Line: The 12-18 months outlook for the dollar remains bright. The resilience of U.S households will lead to stronger wage growth and an economy powered by consumption. The Fed will surprise markets with more rate hikes than anticipated. Meanwhile, European and Japanese real rates are unlikely to rise much if at all. ...But The Short-Term Outlook Is Bifurcated Yet, the short-term outlook is murky. BCA believes that a Trump presidency is likely to supercharge any dollar rally. Not only would his presidency imply huge infrastructure projects, his trade tactics should put upward pressure on wages and inflation, prompting an even more hawkish Fed than we anticipate. However, if recent dynamics are any clue, a Trump victory next week could also cause an immediate but temporary knee-jerk sell-off in the dollar. Since the FBI announced a re-examination of the Clinton emails affair, Trump's probability of winning has skyrocketed. While USD/MXN has rallied, so has EUR/USD, driven by a favorable move in interest rate differentials (Chart I-8). This raises the specter of a bifurcated move in the dollar over the next month or so. On the one hand, the dollar could rise against EM currencies and commodity producers, but suffer against EUR, CHF, and JPY. Why would the dollar rise against EM and commodity currencies? Cyclically and tactically, the stars are lining up against this set of currencies. The economic situation in EM and China is as good as it gets right now. The Keqiang index is near cyclical highs, suggesting that the upswing in Chinese industrial activity is unlikely to strengthen further, especially as loan demand remains tepid (Chart I-9). Chart I-8A Trump Indigestion Chart I-9China: As Good As It Gets Worryingly, Chinese fiscal stimulus is dissipating, which will act as a drag on the nation's investment and industrial activity. Chinese authorities panicked in 2015 as the Chinese economy was moving toward a hard landing. The government direct fiscal spending impulse surged (Chart I-10). Also, private-public partnerships originally expected to invest $1.2 trillion in infrastructure over three years were deployed in six months. As these tactics caused the economy to deviate from Beijing's stated goal to rebalance China away from investment, they are now being rolled back. Additionally, Chinese deflationary pressures are likely to resurface. Our bullish stance on the dollar implies a negative view on commodity prices. PPI will suffer if the dollar rallies given that Chinese producer prices are highly correlated with commodity prices (Chart I-11). This increases the likelihood that industrial activity in China will slow again. Chart I-10Vanishing Fiscal##br## Support Chart I-11Chinese PPI And Commodity Prices:##br## Brothers In Arms These risks are not priced in by EM assets and related plays. Risk reversals on EM currencies are priced in for perfection. Slowing Chinese growth would represent a negative surprise for EM debt, EM currencies, and commodity currencies (Chart I-12). An additional worry for EM currencies is momentum. A paper by the BIS shows that momentum continuation strategies are very profitable in EM FX.1 Hence, if EM currencies begin to fall, this fall will prompt further weaknesses. Finally, a Trump presidency is another headwind for EM and commodity currencies. In an earlier Special Report, we argued that a key factor that boosted the profitability of FX carry strategies was the rise of globalization (Chart I-13).2 This growing global trade mostly benefited small open economies, EM economies, and commodity producers, the so-called "carry-currencies". Trump's rhetoric promises a roll-back of this trend, a move that will disproportionally hurt such currencies. Compounding this risk, this cycle, the performance of FX carry trades has been inversely correlated to global bond yields (Chart I-14). BCA's underweight duration represents another problem for EM and commodity currencies. Chart I-12EM Plays Are Priced For Perfection Chart I-13Carry Trades Love Globalization Chart I-14Rising Yields Hurt Carry Currencies However, what could temporarily lift the euro, the Swiss franc, and the yen despite a negative cyclical outlook? Risk aversion and a global equity market correction prompted by a Trump victory. In short, a flight to safety amid uncertain times. These currencies are underpinned by current account surpluses ranging from 3% of GDP for the euro area to 10% for Switzerland. They therefore export investments abroad. This capital usually displays a strong home bias when global risks spike, and EUR, CHF, and JPY strengthen when global equities weaken. Finally, our current negative predisposition toward carry trades would also support funding currencies, currencies with deeply negative rates like EUR, CHF, or JPY. Bottom Line: In the direct aftermath of a Trump victory, the dollar could suffer from some temporary downward pressure against the EUR, CHF, and JPY. However, it will strengthen against EM and commodity currencies. On a cyclical basis, the USD will be stronger against these latter currencies than against European currencies. Key Investment Recommendations We are opening long EUR/AUD and short CAD/JPY positions. The EUR is less sensitive to EM downside than the AUD. Deteriorating EM currencies' risk reversals often coincide with a stronger EUR/AUD (Chart I-15). Also, the euro is cheaper than the Aussie, trading at a 5% discount to PPP. Additionally, EUR/USD could appreciate in the event of a Trump presidency, but its negative impact on EM economies and global trade will drag down AUD. The CAD/JPY position is primarily a Trump hedge. CAD will sell off if Trump wins as investors ponder the future of NAFTA. Meanwhile, the yen will benefit from safe-haven flows and from the eradication of any probability of MoF interventions (Chart I-16). Japan already meets two of the three criteria to be labeled a currency manipulator by the U.S. Treasury. Under a Trump presidency, such a label will have very real consequences. Chart I-15A Fall In EM Assets Would##br## Support EUR/AUD Chart I-16If Trump Wins, The MoF ##br##Will Not Intervene Moreover, CAD/JPY is also negatively affected by a deterioration of EM risk reversals. However, we are more worried for the JPY's long-term outlook than the EUR's. This is because of the more aggressive policy stance taken by the BoJ. Thus, this trade is more tactical than the EUR/AUD bet. Finally, investors wanting to play a Trump victory using European currencies should consider going long CHF/SEK. Sweden, a small open economy with deep trade links with EM, has been a key beneficiary of globalization. It will be a big loser if global trade shrinks. Meanwhile, CHF is likely to rally. Critically, this trade is for very nimble traders. At EUR/CHF 1.06, the SNB will intervene with all its might. The U.K.'s Über Thursday Yesterday, not only did the Bank of England announce its monetary policy decision and economic forecasts, but also, the High Court ruled that the Article 50 process preceding Brexit requires a vote from Parliament. While we expect Parliament to follow the popular vote and engage in Brexit, a parliamentary vote is much more likely to result in negotiating a "soft Brexit" rather than a "hard Brexit". In a "soft Brexit", the U.K. would retain access to the common market, and passporting of financial services would be allowed. However, freedom of movement would have to be maintained and the U.K. would have to contribute to the EU's purse. Unsurprisingly, the government is appealing the decision. Practically, this means it is still too early to aggressively bid up the pound. If the government wins its appeal, GBP/USD will move toward 1.10. If the government loses its appeal, FDI flows in the U.K. could regain some composure and help finance the large British current account deficit. This would lift GBP/USD toward 1.30 - 1.40. Probabilities are skewed toward the government losing its appeal. Economics, too, warrants caution. While the household sector's resilience has been a surprise to the Bank of England, it is unlikely to continue for long. First, the U.K. household credit impulse has rolled over and is now contracting at a GBP 1 billion pace, pointing to slowing growth. Second, in line with falling capex intentions, employers are paring their hiring intentions (Chart I-17). A slowdown in household nominal income growth should ensue. British households' real income will soon be squeezed, especially as the BoE increased it inflation forecast to 2.7% for 2018 due to the pass-through from the 15% fall in the trade-weighted GBP (Chart I-18). Additionally, the RICS survey points to further weakness in house prices. Chart I-17Deteriorating U.K. Labor Market Outlook Chart I-18Mechanics Of A Real Income Squeeze Hence, the BoE is on hold for a longer time than was anticipated in August. Moreover, Chancellor Hammond has made it clear that while the fall budget will loosen the fiscal austerity penciled in under the Osborne budgets, it is too early for investors to expect a large fiscal easing from the government. This suggests that risks remain tilted toward further easing by the "Old Lady." Bottom Line: Until we get clarity on the results of the government's appeal of yesterday's High Court Brexit ruling, we are inclined to fade strength in the pound. Any move above GBP/USD 1.25 would create a tactical shorting opportunity. A strangle with strikes at 1.27 and 1.15 and a January maturity makes sense for investors wanting to play the volatility around the ultimate ruling on the government's appeal. Mathieu Savary, Vice President Foreign Exchange Strategy mathieu@bcaresearch.com 1 Lukas Menkhoff, Lucio Sarno, Maik Schmeling and Andreas Schrimpf, "Currency Momentum Strategies", BIS Working Papers (2011). 2 Please see Foreign Exchange Strategy Special Report, "Carry Trades: More than Pennies And Steamrollers", dated May 6, 2016, available at fes.bcaresearch.com Currencies U.S. Dollar Chart II-1USD Technicals 1 Chart II-2USD Technicals 2 Policy Commentary: "The Committee judges that the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has continued to strengthen but decided, for the time being, to wait for some further evidence of continued progress toward its objectives" - FOMC Statement (November 2, 2016) Report Links: USD, JPY, AUD: Where Do We Stand - October 28, 2016 Relative Pressures And Monetary Divergences - October 21, 2016 The Pound Falls To The Conquering Dollar - October 14, 2016 The Euro Chart II-3EUR Technicals 1 Chart II-4EUR Technicals 2 Policy Commentary: "[On ECB Stimulus]...the initial date set to end the buying program is March, but the most advisable action is that it be a process that's as slow as possible" - ECB Governing Council Member Luis Maria Linde (October 28, 2016) Report Links: Relative Pressures And Monetary Divergences - October 21, 2016 The Pound Falls To The Conquering Dollar - October 14, 2016 The Dollar: The Great Redistributor - October 7, 2016 The Yen Chart II-5JPY Technicals 1 Chart II-6JPY Technicals 2 Policy Commentary: "[On wether the BOJ would buy regional domestic bonds]..Regional domestic bonds are issued by the various local governments, and are traded separately. There are various factors that would make it difficult to consider them for monetary policy, but we will give the suggestion due consideration" - BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda (November 2, 2016) Report Links: USD, JPY, AUD: Where Do We Stand - October 28, 2016 The Pound Falls To The Conquering Dollar - October 14, 2016 The Dollar: The Great Redistributor - October 7, 2016 British Pound Chart II-7GBP Technicals 1 Chart II-8GBP Technicals 2 Policy Commentary: "...indicators of activity and business sentiment have recovered from their lows immediately following the referendum and the preliminary estimate of GDP growth in Q3 was above expectations. These data suggest that the near-term outlook for activity is stronger than expected three months ago" - BOE Monetary Policy Report (November 3, 2016) Report Links: The Pound Falls To The Conquering Dollar - October 14, 2016 The Dollar: The Great Redistributor - October 7, 2016 Long-Term FX Valuation Models: Updates And New Coverages - September 30, 2016 Australian Dollar Chart II-9AUD Technicals 1 Chart II-10AUD Technicals 2 Policy Commentary: "In Australia, the economy is growing at a moderate rate. The large decline in mining investment is being offset by growth in other areas, including residential construction, public demand and exports. Household consumption has been growing at a reasonable pace, but appears to have slowed a little recently" - RBA Statement (November 1, 2016) Report Links: USD, JPY, AUD: Where Do We Stand - October 28, 2016 The Pound Falls To The Conquering Dollar - October 14, 2016 Long-Term FX Valuation Models: Updates And New Coverages - September 30, 2016 New Zealand Dollar Chart II-11NZD Technicals 1 Chart II-12NZD Technicals 2 Policy Commentary: "There are several reasons for low inflation - both here and abroad. In New Zealand, tradable inflation, which accounts for almost half of the CPI regimen, has been negative for the past four years. Much of the weakness in inflation can be attributed to global developments that have been reflected in the high New Zealand dollar and low inflation in our import prices" - RBNZ Assistant Governor John McDermott (October 11, 2016) Report Links: Long-Term FX Valuation Models: Updates And New Coverages - September 30, 2016 Global Perspective On Currencies: A PCA Approach For The FX Market - September 16, 2016 The Fed is Trapped Under Ice - September 9, 2016 Canadian Dollar Chart II-13CAD Technicals 1 Chart II-14CAD Technicals 2 Policy Commentary: "There are unconventional monetary policies that give us more room to maneuver than previously believed...These include pushing interest rates below zero or buying longer-term bonds to compress long-term yields" - BoC Governor Stephen Poloz (November 1, 2016) Report Links: Relative Pressures And Monetary Divergences - October 21, 2016 The Pound Falls To The Conquering Dollar - October 14, 2016 The Dollar: The Great Redistributor - October 7, 2016 Swiss Franc Chart II-15CHF Technicals 1 Chart II-16CHF Technicals 2 Policy Commentary: "In Switzerland the negative interest rate is currently indispensable, owing to the overvaluation of the Swiss franc and the globally low level of interest rates" - SNB President Thomas Jordan (October 24, 2016) Report Links: Long-Term FX Valuation Models: Updates And New Coverages - September 30, 2016 Global Perspective On Currencies: A PCA Approach For The FX Market - September 16, 2016 Clashing Forces - July 29, 2016 Norwegian Krone Chart II-17NOK Technicals 1 Chart II-18NOK Technicals 2 Policy Commentary: "A period of low interest rates can engender financial imbalances. The risk that growth in property prices and debt will become unsustainably high over time is increasing. With high debt ratios, households are more vulnerable to cyclical downturns" - Norges Bank Governor Oystein Olsen (October 11, 2016) Report Links: The Pound Falls To The Conquering Dollar - October 14, 2016 The Dollar: The Great Redistributor - October 7, 2016 Long-Term FX Valuation Models: Updates And New Coverages - September 30, 2016 Swedish Krona Chart II-19SEK Technicals 1 Chart II-20SEK Technicals 2 Policy Commentary: "[On Sweden's financial stability]...it remains an issue because we are mismanaging out housing market. Our housing market isn't under control in my view" - Riksbank Governor Stefan Ingves (October 17, 2016) Report Links: The Pound Falls To The Conquering Dollar - October 14, 2016 Long-Term FX Valuation Models: Updates And New Coverages - September 30, 2016 Dazed And Confused - July 1, 2016 Trades & Forecasts Forecast Summary Core Portfolio Tactical Trades Closed Trades
Dear Client, In addition to this week's regular Weekly Report, you should have also received a Client Note written by my colleague Marko Papic discussing the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Marko argues that the election is now too close to call. Donald Trump's resilience in the polls continues to baffle most observers. Not us. Back in September of 2015, when most pundits were laughing off Trump's chances, we wrote a report arguing that Trump's rhetoric would resonate with voters much more than most people thought possible. That report, entitled "Trumponomics: What Investors Need To Know," is as relevant today as it was back then. Best regards, Peter Berezin Highlights Spare capacity has narrowed substantially within the developed world. Most of the decline in spare capacity is attributable to lackluster supply, rather than stronger demand. Potential GDP growth is likely to remain weak over the coming years. Narrowing output gaps will put upward pressure on inflation. We are long Japanese and German inflation protection. As spare capacity continues to dwindle, forward guidance will become a more effective tool for central banks. At least in this respect, central bankers may find themselves with a few more bullets in their arsenals. Stay long the dollar and position for gradually higher government bond yields. Global equities are highly vulnerable to a near-term correction, owing to a more hawkish Fed and growing U.S. election uncertainty. Once the dust has settled, European and Japanese stocks will outperform their U.S. peers. Feature Spare Capacity Is Dwindling A persistent shortfall of aggregate demand has been the defining feature of the global economic landscape ever since the financial crisis erupted. This chronic lack of spending has kept inflation below target in most developed economies, forcing central banks to adopt ever more radical easing policies. That is starting to change. Spare capacity continues to decline, allowing once dormant supply-side constraints to reimpose themselves. In this week's report, we take stock of where we are in this process. Mind The (Output) Gap The simplest measure of spare capacity is the so-called output gap, which estimates the difference between what economies are actually producing and what they are capable of producing without putting undue upward pressure on inflation. According to the IMF, the output gap for advanced economies has narrowed from a high of 3.8% of GDP in 2009 to 0.8% at present. The OECD's measure shows a similar decline (Chart 1). Chart 1AOutput Gaps Have Narrowed Chart 1BOutput Gaps Have Narrowed The IMF reckons that the output gap has nearly closed in the U.S. and the U.K. The Fund estimates that Japan's output gap currently stands at 1.5% of GDP. The OECD also sees the U.K. output gap as being fully closed. However, it calculates a smaller output gap for Japan but a larger output gap for the U.S. than the IMF does. Both institutions peg the euro area's output gap at around 1%-to- 1.5%. Not surprisingly, there is a fair bit of variation within continental Europe. The output gap in Germany has fully disappeared, but still stands at 2%-to-3% of GDP in Italy and Spain. Naturally, one should take these numbers with a grain of salt. Output gaps are notoriously difficult to calculate and are subject to large revisions. The OECD, for example, tends to rely on statistical approaches to estimate output gaps.1 These typically involve employing tools such as the so-called "Hodrick-Prescott filter" to smooth out historical GDP data and then treating the resulting trendline as an estimate for potential GDP. Such methods have their uses, but they can go badly awry in situations where GDP is slow to return to its "true" underlying trend. This is a particular worry in the current environment, considering that recoveries following burst asset bubbles tend to be lethargic even in the best of times. The fact that fiscal policy has been fairly tight and monetary policy has been constrained by the zero lower bound has further dampened the recovery. With that in mind, rather than relying on purely statistical techniques, it is useful to measure spare capacity directly. We do this by gauging the extent to which the existing factors of production - labor and capital - are being effectively deployed across the major developed economies. As we argue below, this approach suggests that slack may be modestly higher in Japan than what the IMF and the OECD calculate, and more meaningfully understated in peripheral Europe. The Message From Headline Unemployment Rates Unemployment has been falling in almost all major developed economies (Chart 2). In the U.S. and the U.K., the jobless rate is back to pre-crisis levels. In Germany and Japan, it is below where it was before the Great Recession. As such, it is unlikely that unemployment can decline much in these economies. Chart 2AUnemployment Rates Have Declined Chart 2BUnemployment Rates Have Declined In contrast, while unemployment rates in peripheral Europe have been trending lower over the past three years, they are still quite high by historical standards. There is some debate over whether they can fall much further. The OECD, for example, contends that Spain is already close to full employment, even though the country's unemployment rate still stands at nearly 20%. We find this implausible. The OECD essentially takes a moving average to calculate structural unemployment rates in various economies. As noted above, this can be highly misleading in circumstances where the forces pushing an economy towards full employment are impaired. In general, this suggests that both the IMF and the OECD estimates of labor market slack in the euro area are too low. This is consistent with a recent ECB research paper, which calculated that the euro area's output gap was 6% of GDP in 2015, a far cry from the European Commission's estimate of 1.1%.2 Disguised Unemployment The unemployment rate is probably the single best measure of labor market slack. However, it can understate the true amount of spare capacity during periods when many people have stopped looking for work, or when those who are employed are not working as much or as intensively as they would like. The nature of this additional labor market slack differs from region to region. In the U.S., it has mainly manifested itself in lower labor force participation rates; whereas in Europe - perhaps in keeping with the more egalitarian nature of European society - it has mainly taken the form of fewer hours worked and a higher incidence of involuntary part-time employment. Chart 3 shows that labor force participation rates among prime-age workers (those between the ages of 25-and-54) in Europe are generally higher now than they were before the financial crisis. In contrast, the share of workers who have part-time jobs but desire full-time employment remains elevated across most of continental Europe (Chart 4). The average annual number of hours worked per employee has also declined in most European economies (Chart 5). Chart 3ALabor Force Participation Rate ##br##Has Risen In Europe, But Fallen In The U.S. Chart 3BLabor Force Participation Rate ##br##Has Risen In Europe, But Fallen In The U.S. Chart 4AEurope: Higher Incidence Of ##br##Involuntary Part-Time Employment Chart 4BEurope: Higher Incidence ##br##Of Involuntary Part-Time Employment In the U.S., the prime-age labor force participation rate is still 1.9 points lower than it was in 2007. Part of this is cyclical. As long as the labor market continues to improve, participation rates among prime-age workers should continue to recover. That's the good news. The bad news is that ongoing structural forces are likely to prevent the participation rate from returning back to its pre-crisis levels. Chart 6 shows that labor force participation rates among U.S. prime-aged males has been trending lower since the 1960s. The decline has been particularly acute among less-educated workers. Why this has happened remains a source of intense debate. Conservative commentators have argued that cultural shifts have reduced the social pressure on men to maintain gainful employment. Liberal commentators have contended that falling real wages at the lower end of the skill distribution have reduced the incentive to work. Whatever the reason, it will be difficult to boost labor participation substantially from current levels. At present, 11% of U.S. prime-aged nonparticipants report wanting a job, only modestly higher than before the recession (Chart 7). It is possible that some fraction of those who do not want to work will change their minds - indeed, this year has seen a modest inflow of "disabled" people back into the labor force. Realistically, however, this is unlikely to boost labor participation by more than one percentage point. Chart 5Hours Worked ##br##In Europe Have Declined Chart 6U.S.: The Less Educated ##br##Are Shunning The Labor Force Chart 7U.S.: Fewer Potential Workers ##br##On The Sidelines Chart 8Japan's Underutilized Labor Force The incidence of involuntary part-time employment in Japan has returned to where it was prior to the Great Recession. However, in absolute terms, it remains quite high - in fact, nearly as high as in Europe. Japanese full-time employees may also not be as productively engaged as they could be. As evidence, note that output-per-hour in Japan is 37% lower than in the U.S. and 33% lower than in Germany (Chart 8). From this we conclude that there is somewhat more labor market slack in Japan than the headline unemployment rate suggests. Industrial Capacity Utilization Goods-producing sectors typically account for less than a third of GDP in most advanced economies. Nevertheless, because the demand for goods tends to be more volatile than the demand for services, fluctuations in industrial production often account for the bulk of the changes in output gaps. As Chart 9 shows, after a brisk recovery following the financial crisis, the U.S. industrial capacity utilization rate has been trending lower for the past two years. It currently stands at 75.4%, 5.6 percentage points lower than at its pre-recession peak. The Institute for Supply Management's semi-annual capacity utilization survey also suggests that many U.S. manufacturing businesses are operating substantially below potential (Chart 10). Much of the deterioration in U.S. industrial utilization reflects the effects of the energy bust and a stronger dollar. Business capex has decelerated sharply as a consequence of these forces, falling by over two-thirds in the case of energy capex. This should cut into excess capacity. Chart 9U.S.: Industrial Capacity ##br##Utilization Remains Low Chart 10U.S.: Less Slack In Services ##br##Than Manufacturing The dearth of new investment elsewhere in the world should also help prop up utilization rates (Chart 11). Industrial utilization is close to its historic average in Europe. Unlike in the case of labor markets, there is not a lot of regional variation in capacity utilization rates across the euro area. If anything, Italian spare capacity is actually closer to its pre-recession level than Germany's. Chart 11AEurope: Idle Industrial Capacity Is Shrinking Chart 11BEurope: Idle Industrial Capacity Is Shrinking Chart 12Excess Capacity Has Declined In Japan Capacity utilization has also returned to its long-term trend in Japan. Encouragingly, the Tankan Factor Utilization Index has risen to its highest level since the early 1990s (Chart 12). Nevertheless, the strong yen is starting to put pressure on Japan's industrial sector. This suggests that further monetary easing from the BoJ will be necessary. Economic And Investment Implications Our analysis suggests that spare capacity has narrowed substantially within the developed world, although for some countries not quite as much as output gap estimates from the IMF and the OECD indicate (particularly in the case of peripheral Europe). Unfortunately, most of the decline in spare capacity is attributable to lackluster supply, rather than faster demand growth (Chart 13). Interestingly, a cyclically-induced withdrawal of workers from the labor market has only played a modest role in explaining the slowdown in potential GDP growth and the resulting decline in output gaps. Instead, most of the deceleration in potential GDP growth stems from lower productivity gains. Chart 13AWeak Supply Growth Has Narrowed Output Gaps Chart 13BWeak Supply Growth Has Narrowed Output Gaps Some of the decline in productivity growth reflects cyclical factors, especially weak business investment. However, as we have discussed in past reports, much of it reflects structural forces such as declining educational achievement and a shift in focus of internet innovation away from business productivity applications towards consumer services such as social media.3 Looking out, narrowing output gaps will put upward pressure on inflation. We are long Japanese and German inflation protection via the CPI swap market. Governor Kuroda has made it clear that he wants Japanese inflation to rise above 2% to make up for the fact that inflation has perpetually undershot the BoJ's target. The Bundesbank may not want higher inflation, but the ECB's need to reflate Southern Europe all but guarantees such an outcome. As spare capacity continues to dwindle, forward guidance will become a more effective tool for central banks. The essence of forward guidance is the commitment to keeping monetary policy ultra loose even when the economy begins to overheat. If people believe that the central bank will keep the punch bowl filled, this could cause long-term inflation expectations to rise, leading to lower real yields and increased spending today. Such a commitment is likely to be regarded as more credible if people expect it to be carried out over the next few years, rather than at some distant point in the future. The Bank of Japan has already moved in that direction with its pledge to engineer an inflation overshoot by keeping the 10-year JGB yield anchored at zero. Chart 14China: On The Mend, Cyclically The U.S. has the smallest output gap, but the highest neutral interest rate, among the major developed economies. This week's FOMC statement strongly hinted at a December rate hike. As we discussed two weeks ago, in addition to one hike this year, we expect the FOMC to hike rates twice next year.4 This should cause the real broad trade-weighted dollar to appreciate by 10% over the next 12 months. A stronger dollar will mitigate some of the upward pressure on U.S. bond yields. Nevertheless, as slack continues to erode and inflation shifts higher, Treasury yields, along with bond yields elsewhere, should continue trending higher. Global equities are currently highly vulnerable to a near-term correction, owing to a more hawkish Fed and growing U.S. election uncertainty. We are currently short the NASDAQ 100 futures as a hedge, a trade that has gained 3.1% since we initiated it. Once the dust has settled, European and Japanese stocks will outperform their U.S. peers. This is partly because U.S. stocks are relatively expensive, but it is also because an ascending dollar will hurt U.S. multinationals. Investors should overweight Japanese and European stocks on a currency-hedged basis within the developed market universe. The outlook for emerging markets is mixed. On the one hand, the recent uptick in Chinese growth - as evidenced by this week's better-than-expected PMI data (Chart 14) - should provide some support to commodity prices and EM assets. On the other hand, a stronger dollar will weigh on commodities, while making it more onerous for some emerging market companies to refinance their dollar-denominated loans. Higher U.S. rates could also reduce the global pool of dollar liquidity, making it difficult for some emerging markets to finance their current account deficits. On balance, a modestly underweight stance towards EM assets is warranted. Peter Berezin, Senior Vice President Global Investment Strategy peterb@bcaresearch.com 1 The IMF uses a more ad hoc approach. Desk economists have significant leeway in how they estimate output gaps for their respective economies. Most economists rely on statistical models and production function calculations, intermixed with educated guesswork. 2 Marek Jarocinski, and Michele Lenza, "How Large Is The Output Gap In The Euro Area," ECB Research Bulletin 2016, July 1, 2016. 3 Please see Global Investment Strategy Special Report, "Slower Potential Growth: Causes And Consequences," dated May 29, 2015; and Special Report, "Weak Productivity Growth: Don't Blame The Statisticians," dated March 25, 2016, available at gis.bcaresearch.com. 4 Please see Global Investment Strategy Weekly Report, "Better U.S. Economic Data Will Cause The Dollar To Strengthen," dated October 14, 2016, available at gis.bcaresearch.com. Strategy & Market Trends* Tactical Trades Strategic Recommendations Closed Trades
Highlights U.S. Corporates: U.S. corporate debt, both Investment Grade and High-Yield, is fully priced for an improvement in economic growth and profits. Tight valuations offer no yield cushion before the expected December Fed rate hike. Maintain a defensive up-in-quality stance on U.S. corporates, favoring Investment Grade over junk. Euro Area Corporates: Euro Area corporate bonds are not as expensive as U.S. equivalents, but are by no means cheap. The likely extension of the ECB QE program until at least the latter half of 2017 will help keep valuations at rich levels, especially for Investment Grade issuers where the ECB is directly buying bonds. Stay defensive in Euro Area corporates, favoring Investment Grade over High-Yield. Feature Better Global Growth Not Necessarily Better For Corporate Bonds Back in July of this year, BCA put its flag in the ground and called an end to the 35-year global bond bull market after government bond yields hit historic lows following the shocking U.K. Brexit vote.1 Yields have steadily crept up since we made that declaration, due to a combination of changing cyclical factors (improving global growth, modest increases in inflation), some signs of diminished political concerns (no immediate global spillovers from a more drawn-out Brexit process, the fall in the odds of victory of the "anti-status-quo" candidate in the U.S. presidential election, Donald Trump) and structural factors (worries about less accommodative monetary policies, a political shift towards greater deficit-financed government spending). While government bond yields have been rising from depressed levels, corporate bond returns on either side of the Atlantic Ocean have at the same time lost considerable momentum, both in absolute terms and relative to sovereign debt (Chart of the Week). This is a bit of a surprise given the recent improvement in global growth data that is now appearing in a broadening number of countries (Chart 2), which would suggest a potential brighter outlook for corporate earnings. However, credit valuations and the liquidity backdrop matter, and a potential cyclical improvement in profits may not benefit corporate bond performance at a time of tight spreads and greater uncertainty about future central bank policies. Chart of the WeekIs The Party Ending For Corporate Bonds? Chart 2A Broadening Pickup In Global Growth With credit spreads currently priced for a near-perfect backdrop of low volatility and highly accommodative central banks, we continue to recommend an overall defensive posture in "Trans-Atlantic" corporate bonds, favoring Investment Grade (IG) over High-Yield (HY) in both the U.S. and Euro Area. Chart 3U.S. Corps Are Now ONLY A 'Tina' Trade U.S. Corporates: Stretched Valuations, Especially For Junk Bonds U.S. corporate bonds have been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the so-called "TINA" (There Is No Alternative) trade, where investors have been forced into riskier assets out of low-yielding government bonds. The return performance for both investment grade (IG) and high-yield (HY) debt has been outstanding, with the former up 8.2% year-to-date and the latter up +15.9%. The fundamental backdrop for corporate debt, however, has shown few signs of any improvement that would justify such strong returns, according to our U.S. Corporate Bond Checklist (Chart 3): 1.Corporate balance sheets are deteriorating: Our U.S. Corporate Health Monitor (CHM), an amalgamation of various bottom-up credit metrics applied to top-down corporate profit data, continues to signal that balance sheets are worsening. This trend has been ongoing for more than two years and shows no signs of slowing, with companies continuing to ramp up leverage to record highs at a time of increasing downward pressure on profit margins. 2.Bank lending standards are slowly tightening: The U.S. Federal Reserve's Senior Bank Loan Officer Survey has begun to flash that a greater number of U.S. banks are tightening lending standards on commercial & industrial loans. The net number is still low within the history of this series, and is largely the result of tightening standards on domestic energy companies suffering from the lower oil prices of the past two years. Nonetheless, the highly cyclical nature of lending standards suggests that a move back to easier standards may not happen at this advanced stage of the multi-year credit cycle. 3.Monetary conditions are tighter, but remain stimulative: Our U.S. Monetary Conditions Index (MCI), which is a weighted combination of short-term interest rates and the U.S. dollar, remains at an accommodative level, even after the 18% rise in the trade-weighted dollar since the trough in 2014 and the Fed's lone rate hike last year.2 Interest rates are far more important in our MCI calculation than the dollar (by a 10/1 ratio), however, so it would take an exceptionally large move in the dollar to push the MCI to restrictive territory after just a single 25bp rate hike. Yet with the Fed clearly in a slow hiking cycle that could deliver at least another 75bps of rate hikes by the end of 2017, the MCI will continue in a tightening direction that has historically been correlated with wider corporate bond spreads. With only an easy money backdrop supportive of narrower credit spreads, there is a growing risk that U.S. corporates could respond poorly to a December Fed rate hike that we expect - especially if that also coincides with renewed strength in the U.S. dollar. Already, the Fed's trade-weighted dollar index has risen by 3.2% during the recent Treasury market selloff, as the market-determined probability of a December hike has risen to 66%. This remains below the peaks seen in the run-up to the rate hike at the end of 2015, which coincided with a big widening of corporate credit spreads (Chart 4). One major difference from a year ago is that the Fed is not signaling the same degree of monetary tightening after the next hike. The FOMC median interest rate projections (the "dots") were indicating another 100bps of hikes following the December 2015 rate increase, and are now only signaling another 50bps of hikes after the Fed's expected next move in December. This is keeping both the 2-year Treasury yield and the dollar well below the peaks seen at the end of last year, helping prevent a breakout in market volatility and credit spreads. So if there is a fresh spike in volatility and/or the dollar, it would be striking the corporate credit markets at a time when valuations look stretched. We can see that in a number of indicators. U.S. corporate bond excess returns have far exceeded the levels suggested by domestic capacity utilization, which are relevant for corporates given their long-standing correlation to profit margins (Chart 5). Our colleagues at our sister publication, U.S. Bond Strategy, have calculated that a 0.4% improvement in capacity utilization has historically coincided with a 100bps tightening in HY bond spreads over a 1-year period; thus, utilization would have to rise to 77.2% by next February (a level last seen in March 2015 when the annual growth rate of Industrial Production was 2.5 percentage points faster than the current pace) to justify HY spreads at current levels.3 In other words, junk bonds are already priced for a significant recovery in U.S. economic growth and corporate profits. Chart 4U.S. Corps Not Responding To A Rising USD...Yet Chart 5Ignoring The Signal From Capacity Utilization U.S. corporate bond excess returns over duration-matched Treasuries during the past twelve months have been strongly positive: +316bps for IG and +844bps for HY. Our past work analyzing U.S. credit cycles has shown that such a positive return performance usually occurs during the deleveraging stage of the corporate credit cycle, typically during recessions when profits are falling and growth in company debt stalls or even contracts (Charts 6 & 7). Chart 6Investment Grade Corporate Annual Excess Return* Chart 7High-Yield Annual Excess Return* Chart 8Spreads Ignoring The Usual Credit Cycle The current environment is one of declining corporate profits but with debt growth still expanding, similar to the credit spread widening backdrop around the 2000 and 2008 U.S. recessions (Chart 8). This sends a similar message to the relationship of credit returns with capacity utilization, with corporate bonds now priced for a strong rebound in profit growth that may be difficult to achieve over the next year. A similar situation exists in the equity market, where the consensus bottom-up expectation is for overall profit growth to surge to +13% in 2017 and +11% in 2018.4 That would represent a sharp rebound from the profit declines witnessed in 2015 and the first half of 2016. Chart 9A Stretched Rally In U.S. Junk Some may argue that such a significant rebound in overall corporate earnings could happen just from the impact of better outlook for profits in the Energy sector given the recent recovery in oil prices. However, it appears that U.S. corporate bond valuations already more than fully discount a higher crude price. The 2016 rally in U.S. junk bonds has been led by the massive tightening of spreads of oil-related names, with the benchmark Bloomberg Barclays High-Yield Energy index returning 33% year-to-date as spreads have collapsed. However, the current Energy index OAS is at 550bps - levels last seen during the 2015 counter-trend rally in oil prices after the 2014 plunge (Chart 9, middle panel) That rally took the Brent crude price of oil up to $67/bbl, well above the current price hovering around $50/bbl. Our Commodity strategists continue to see $60/bbl as being the ceiling for the oil price range over the next year, as prices above that would begin to draw supply back into the market from U.S. shale companies and other global oil producers with higher break-even prices. Thus, U.S. HY energy debt already discounts an oil price that is unlikely to be achieved in the medium-term. A similar situation exists when looking at non-Energy junk spreads, which are highly correlated with macro volatility measures like the VIX index and which already fully reflect the current low volatility backdrop (Chart 9, bottom panel). We are concerned about a pick-up in volatility in the near-term from either a political surprise like a Trump victory on November 8 or, more likely, market jitters when the Fed delivers on a rate hike in December. With our fundamental VIX model, which is based off the lagged impact of rising corporate leverage and tightening monetary conditions, continuing to signal that the fair value level of the VIX is around 20, credit markets are not prepared for a potential rise in volatility in the next few months. Challenging Valuations At All Levels When we look at our various valuation gauges for U.S. corporate debt, it is difficult to find many areas where credit looks cheap. With regards to IG debt, our preferred measure of valuation is the 6-month breakeven spread, which shows how much spreads would need to widen to full offset the carry advantage of owning IG debt over duration-matched U.S. Treasuries, assuming spread volatility is maintained at recent levels. That breakeven spread now sits at a mere 9bps (Chart 10, top panel), well below the long-run mean. In other words, IG excess returns can easily turn negative with only a modest widening of spreads. For HY debt, our preferred valuation metric is the default-adjusted spread, where we subtract expected default losses estimated by our default rate and recovery rate models from the current junk spread. That adjusted spread is now only 69bps - a level more than one standard deviation below the long-run mean that we consider to be overvalued (bottom panel). With spreads at such depressed levels relative to expected default losses, the historical probability of junk delivering positive excess returns over the next year is extremely low. We see a similar stretched valuation backdrop when looking at credit spreads among sectors and ratings cohorts. Within the IG universe, the OAS for Financials, Industrials and Utilities have fully converged (Chart 11, top panel), while credit spread curves are near the tranquil 2005-2007 period of historically low volatility that we do not expect to be repeated (bottom panel). Within sectors, our U.S. IG relative value model only sees attractive spreads in the debt of Banks, Energy, Metals & Mining, Building Materials, Technology and Airlines. Chart 10Expensive Valuations, Especially For Junk Chart 11Not Much Difference To Choose From Here Bottom Line: U.S. corporate debt, both Investment Grade and High-Yield, is fully priced for an improvement in economic growth and corporate profits. Tight valuations offer no yield cushion before the expected December Fed rate hike. Maintain a defensive up-in-quality stance on U.S. corporates, favoring Investment Grade over junk. Euro Area Corporates: ECB Buying Keeping IG Rich While Junk Fundamentals Worsen Turning towards Europe, a similar story of expensive corporate credit valuations exists, although not to the same magnitude as in the U.S. Of course, valuations may not matter for Euro Area IG with the European Central Bank (ECB) buying corporate debt as part of their quantitative easing (QE) asset purchase program. That surge in QE buying (both real and anticipated by investors) helped drive both yields and spreads for Euro Area IG sharply lower between March and June of this year. Since then, however, both yields and spreads have gone up moderately (Chart 12), reflecting both the rising global yield backdrop and the worsening situation for Euro Area banks whose debt dominates the IG market. Chart 12Euro Area Corporate Bond Rally Has Stalled Chart 13Euro Area Valuations Are Not That Cheap The rise in Euro Area corporate credit spreads comes at a time when investors have grown increasingly concerned about a potential tapering of the ECB's QE when the current program expires in March of next year. As we discussed in our previous Weekly Report, we expect the ECB to announce in December an extension of the government bond QE to at least September 2017, likely with some additional changes to the rules of the QE program to avoid hitting any self-imposed purchase limits.5 This could help keep spreads anchored near current levels, all else equal. Of course, all else is never equal, and the liquidity story can be trumped by expensive valuations, as we currently see in U.S. junk bonds. Using the same metrics for U.S. IG and HY credit spreads that we presented earlier shows that both the breakeven spread for Euro Area IG, and the default-adjusted spread for Euro Area HY, are below the long-run mean (Chart 13). Euro Area junk valuations are not as stretched as U.S. junk valuations on this basis, but they are hardly cheap. A similar story exists when looking at Euro Area IG corporates grouped by credit rating, with spread curves looking as flat as the U.S. curves shown earlier (Chart 14). Our Euro Area IG sector relative value model (Table 1 on Page 11) is also showing a handful of sectors with comparatively cheap spreads, ranging from commodity-focused industries (Energy, Metals & Mining) to financial groups (Insurers, Banks). However, the "cheapness" in the latter likely represents some degree of risk premium on Euro Area banks, whose poor profitability and capital adequacy issues are now well known to investors. Euro Area bank spreads may stay cheaper for longer until those problems begin to be addressed. Chart 14Euro Area Credit Spread Curves Are Flat Table 1Euro Area Investment Grade Corporate Sector Spread Valuations One final note on the relative value between Euro Area and U.S. corporates: the bottom-up Corporate Health Monitors for both regions that we introduced earlier this year continue to show gaps favoring Euro Area IG over U.S. equivalents (Chart 15), and U.S. HY over Euro Area equivalents (Chart 16). The relative balance sheet trends are showing up in the relative investment performance across the Atlantic, with Euro Area IG starting to outperform U.S. IG, and Euro Area HY lagging the returns in U.S. HY. We continue to recommend allocations based on these relative valuation trends, keeping the lightest weighting on Euro Area junk bonds that score poorly on all relative balance sheet metrics. Chart 15Favor Euro Area IG Over U.S. IG Chart 16Euro Area Junk Is Unattractive Vs. The U.S. Bottom Line: Euro Area corporate bonds are not as expensive as U.S. equivalents, but are by no means cheap. The likely extension of the ECB QE program until at least the latter half of 2017 will help keep valuations at rich levels, especially for Investment Grade issuers where the ECB is directly buying bonds. Stay up in quality in Euro Area corporates, favoring Investment Grade over High-Yield. Robert Robis, Senior Vice President Global Fixed Income Strategy rrobis@bcaresearch.com 1 Please see BCA Global Fixed Income Strategy/U.S. Bond Strategy Weekly Report, "A Note On The Long-Term Outlook For Global Bonds", dated July 27, 2016, available at gfis.bcaresearch.com and usbs.bcaresearch.com 2 A neutral reading of the MCI is the zero line is consistent with a U.S. economy without any output gap, growing at its potential rate, and with unemployment at full employment levels. 3 Please see BCA U.S. Bond Strategy Special Report, "Don't Chase The Rally In Junk", dated Nov 1, 2016, available at usbs.bcaresearch.com 4 Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S 5 Please see BCA Global Fixed Income Strategy Weekly Report, "The ECB's Next Move: Extend & Pretend", dated Oct 25, 2016, available at gfis.bcaresearch.com The GFIS Recommended Portfolio Vs. The Custom Benchmark Index Recommendations Duration Regional Allocation Spread Product Tactical Trades Yields & Returns Global Bond Yields Historical Returns
Recommended Allocation Central Banks Still In The Driving Seat Markets continue to obsess about every move from the three major DM central banks. With two of them (the Fed and the ECB) likely to withdraw accommodation cautiously over the coming 12 months, the upside for risk assets is limited. The Fed is signaling that it will probably hike in December and the futures market is pricing in a 70% probability of that happening (roughly the probability one month before the rate rise in December last year). Inflation expectations have picked up recently (Chart 1) and core PCE inflation ticked up to 1.7% in August, within "hailing distance", as Fed vice-chair Stanley Fischer put it, of the Fed's 2% target. There is a political angle, too: having forecast four rate rises for the year, the Fed would endanger its credibility (and risk an audit from Congress) if it failed to deliver even one. At the same time, with growth in the Eurozone running a little above trend, the ECB is likely to announce in December an extension to its asset purchase program beyond March 2017 but eventually at a slower pace (a "tapering"). Reflecting these factors, government bond yields have moved up in recent months (Chart 2), and the trade-weighted dollar has strengthened by 4% since mid-August. None of these moves are good for risk assets, which have consequently moved sideways since August. But neither do they presage a big selloff since central banks will err on the side of caution. Inflation in the U.S. is unlikely to jump: wage growth will be kept under control by a gradual rise in the participation rate, which will prevent unemployment falling much further (Chart 3). The Fed's leaders continue to sound dovish. Janet Yellen even raised the question in a recent speech of "whether it might be possible to reverse these adverse supply-side effects [from the 2007-9 Global Financial Crisis] by temporarily running a 'high-pressure economy'", though she emphasized this was a suggestion for further economic research not her view. More practically, the FOMC will have a more dovish tilt in 2017, as the three regional Fed presidents who voted for a hike in September rotate out. Chart 1Have Inflation Expectations Bottomed? Chart 2Bond Yields Moving Higher Chart 3Core Workers Reentering The Labor Force Meanwhile, economic data remain somewhat sluggish. The U.S. manufacturing and non-manufacturing ISMs both rebounded sharply in September, suggesting that the very weak August prints were, as we suggested, an anomaly. Q3 U.S. real GDP growth come in at 2.9%, but the New York Fed's NowCast points to a slowdown to 1.4% in Q4. The Citi Economic Surprise Index (Chart 4) has also turned down again recently, with notable weakness in consumer spending and housebuilding. We expect this sluggish pace to continue through 2017: consumption should hold up as wage rises come through, but it is hard to forecast a strong recovery in capex, given the low capacity utilization rate (Chart 5), even if investment in the mining and energy sectors bottoms out next year. Eurozone growth could stutter too. It is driven substantially by credit growth, but historically European banks have tended to curtail lending after their share prices have fallen, as has been the case recently (Chart 6). Chinese growth has stabilized (at least in the GDP data, which seems to come in regularly at 6.7%, bang in the middle of the government's target range), thanks to the government's reflation policy from earlier this year. While the Chinese authorities have now reined back a little on stimulus, given their worries about the run-up in house prices,1 they offer an option since they would undoubtedly reflate again should growth slow. Chart 4Data Surprising Negatively Again Chart 5Hard To See More CAPEX Indeed Chart 6Share Prices Influence Lending All this suggests that returns from investment assets will be low, but positive, over the coming 12 months. With economic growth anemic but stable, bond yields prone to drift up, and equities expensive (but not as expensive as bonds), we expect risk-adjusted returns from the major asset classes to be broadly similar. We continue to recommend therefore a neutral weighting between bonds and equities, and suggest that investors look to pick up extra return through tilts to investment-grade corporate credit, inflation-linked over nominal bonds, and alternative assets such as real estate and private equity. Equities: Our preference remains for U.S. equities over European ones in USD terms. The dollar is likely to strengthen further, and the worst is not over for Eurozone banks - the time to buy into them will be at the point of maximum pain, which may come if German or Italian banks have to be bailed out by their governments. We continue to recommend a small (currency-hedged) overweight on Japan. The Bank of Japan's new policy to cap 10-year government bond yields at 0% has worked so far: the yen has weakened to JPY 104 to the dollar and equities have risen moderately. We expect further fiscal or wage-control measures from the government to give inflation an extra push. We remain wary of EM equities: earnings growth is negative, loan growth has started to slow (with the credit impulse having a high correlation with earnings and economic growth), and there is still little sign of structural reform. Some sectors in EM - notably IT and Healthcare - are attractive, however. Fixed Income: U.S. Treasury bond yields are likely to rise further - our model suggests fair value is a little below 2% (Chart 7) - and so we remain underweight duration. A moderate pickup in inflation suggests that TIPs will outperform nominal bonds (as described in detail in our recent Special Report).2 We lowered our recommendation in high-yield corporate debt to neutral last month because, at 65 BPs, the default-adjusted spread no longer offers sufficient return to justify the risk. At the start of the year it was 400 BPs (Chart 8). We continue to like investment-grade debt, where the spread over government bonds is 120 BPs in the U.S. and 100 BPs in the Eurozone, higher than at any point in 2005-2006 during the last expansion. Chart 7Treasury Yields Could Rise Further Chart 8Junk No Longer Offers Enough Return Currencies: We expect the U.S. dollar to continue to appreciate given the differential in growth and monetary conditions between the U.S. and other developed economies. The dollar looks expensive, but is nowhere near the over-bought levels it got to at the peak of previous rallies in 1985 and 2002 (Chart 9). China seems likely to allow a further weakness of the RMB against the dollar, repegging it to a trade-weighted currency basket. This could push down other emerging market currencies too particularly if, like Brazil recently, they try to cut rates to boost growth. Chart 9USD Not As Overvalued As In The Past Commodities: Oil has probably overshot in the short-term on expectations that Saudi Arabia and Russia will cap, or even cut, production. We think this talk has been overhyped and that the OPEC meeting in November could prove a disappointment. Nonetheless, we still see the equilibrium level for crude over the next two years at USD 50 a barrel, the marginal cost for U.S. shale producers. Industrial commodities are likely to fall further (they peaked in June) if we are right that the dollar appreciates. We continue to like gold as an inflation hedge, but short-term are nervous because it, too, is negatively correlated with the dollar. Garry Evans, Senior Vice President Global Asset Allocation garry@bcaresearch.com 1 Please see China Investment Strategy "Housing Tightening: Now And 2010" dated October 13, 2016, available at cis.bcaresearch.com 2 Please see Global Asset Allocation Special Report "TIPS For Inflation-Linked Bonds," dated October 28, 2016, available at gaa.bcaresearch.com Recommended Asset Allocation Model Portfolio (USD Terms)
The Tactical Asset Allocation model can provide investment recommendations which diverge from those outlined in our regular weekly publications. The model has a much shorter investment horizon - namely, one month - and thus attempts to capture very tactical opportunities. Meanwhile, our regular recommendations have a longer expected life, anywhere from 3-months to a year (or longer). This difference explains why the recommendations between the two publications can deviate from each other from time to time. Highlights Chart 1Model Weights In October, the model outperformed global equities in USD and local-currency terms; it also outperformed the S&P 500 in local-currency terms, while performing in line with the S&P in USD terms. For November, the model trimmed its allocation to cash and stocks and boosted its weighting in bonds (Chart 1). The model increased its weighting in French, Dutch, and Swedish stocks at the expense of the U.S., Japan, Germany, Switzerland, New Zealand, and Emerging Asia. Within the bond portfolio, allocation to New Zealand and the U.K. was increased, while the allocation to U.S., Australian and Spanish paper was reduced. The risk index for stocks deteriorated in October, while the bond risk index improved noticeably. Feature Performance In October, the recommended balanced portfolio gained 0.6% in local-currency terms, and was down 1% in U.S. dollar terms (Chart 2). This compares with a loss of 1.4% for the global equity benchmark, and a 1% loss for the S&P 500 index. Given that the underlying model is structured in local-currency terms, we generally recommend that investors hedge their positions, though we do provide recommendations from time to time. The higher allocation to EM stocks in October was timely, but the boost to bonds was a drag on the model's performance. Weights The model cut its allocation to stocks from 67% to 66% and increased its bond weighting from 21% to 26%. The allocation to cash was decreased from 12% to 8%, while commodities remain excluded from the portfolio (Table 1). The model reduced its allocation to New Zealand equities by 3 points, Emerging Asia by 2 points and U.S., Japan, Germany and Switzerland by 1 point each. Meanwhile, it increased allocation to Dutch, French and Swedish stocks by 4 points, 3 points and 1 point, respectively. In the fixed-income space, the allocation to U.K. and New Zealand paper was increased by 6 points and 5 points respectively, while allocation to Australia, Spain and the U.S. was cut by 3 points, 2 points and 1 point, respectively. Chart 2Portfolio Total Returns Table 1Model Weights (As Of October 27, 2016) Currency Allocation Local currency-based indicators drive the construction of our model. As such, the performance of the model's portfolio should be compared with the local-currency global equity benchmark. The decision to hedge currency exposure should be made at the client's discretion, though from time to time, we do provide our recommendations. The dollar appreciated in October and investors should position for additional dollar strength. Our Dollar Capitulation Index seems to be breaking out to the upside following a pattern of lower highs. Since 2008, such breakouts have been followed by a significant rally in the broad trade-weighted dollar (Chart 3). Chart 3U.S. Trade-Weighted Dollar* And Capitulation Capital Market Indicators Our model continues to exclude commodities from the portfolio. The risk index for this asset class remains at the highest level in over two years (Chart 4). For the first time since June 2014, the risk index for global equities is above the neutral line (Chart 5). The higher overall risk reflects deteriorating liquidity and momentum readings. Our model cut its weighting in equities for the third month in a row. Chart 4Commodity Index And Risk Chart 5Global Stock Market And Risk The value component of the risk index for U.S. stocks improved in October, but this was overshadowed by worsening liquidity and momentum readings. The model slightly trimmed its allocation to U.S. equities (Chart 6). Even after the latest small uptick in the risk index for Dutch equities, it remains one of the lowest among the model's universe. The allocation to this bourse was increased. (Chart 7). Chart 6U.S. Stock Market And Risk Chart 7Netherlands Stock Market And Risk The risk index for U.K. stocks declined slightly in October, but remains firmly in high-risk territory both compared to its own history and its global peers. This asset class remains excluded from the portfolio (Chart 8). The model slightly upgraded Swedish equities, despite a worsening risk index. The continued favorable liquidity backdrop remains a boon for Swedish stocks (Chart 9). Chart 8U.K. Stock Market And Risk Chart 9Swedish Stock Market And Risk After declining for four consecutive months, the overall risk index for bonds is not at extreme high-risk levels anymore. The increase in yields has helped completely unwind overbought conditions, as per our momentum indicator. The model used the latest selloff to increase its allocation to bonds (Chart 10). The risk index for U.S. Treasurys declined markedly in October, but a few other markets also feature improved risk readings. As a result, the model downgraded U.S. Treasurys (Chart 11). Chart 10Global Bond Yields And Risk Chart 11U.S. Bond Yields And Risk The selloff in New Zealand bonds has pushed the momentum indicator into oversold territory, boosting the allocation to this asset class (Chart 12). The risk index for euro area bonds remains firmly in the high-risk zone even after a notable decline. However, there are select bond markets in the common-currency area that have relatively more favorable risk readings (Chart 13). Chart 12New Zealand Bond Yields And Risk Chart 13Euro Area Bond Yields And Risk Within the euro area, Italian bonds feature a risk reading that has fallen below the neutral line. While the cyclical indicator continues to move into more bond-negative territory, it is currently being offset by the oversold reading on the momentum indicator (Chart 14). U.K. gilt yields moved up as the post-Brexit inflation backdrop became gilt-unfriendly and growth surprised on the upside. Now, with momentum moving from overbought to oversold over just a couple of months, any negative economic surprises could potentially weigh on gilt yields. The model has added this asset class to the portfolio (Chart 15). Chart 14Italian Bond Yields and Risk Chart 15U.K. Bond Yields And Risk A more hawkish Fed could push the dollar higher. The 13-week momentum measure for the USD remains above, but close to the neutral line. The recovery of the 40-week rate of change from mildly negative levels which have represented a floor since 2012 would suggest that a new leg in the dollar bull market is in the offing (Chart 16). Both the 13-week and 40-week momentum measures for the euro are below the neutral line (Chart 17). Growing monetary divergences could continue weighing on EUR/USD before the technical indicators are pushed into more oversold territory. Fears of hard Brexit knocked down the pound. The 13-week rate of change is now close to its post-Brexit lows, while the 40-week rate of change measure is at the most oversold level since 2000 (excluding the great recession). At these technical levels the pound seems overdue to find a temporary bottom (Chart 18). Chart 16U.S. Trade-Weighted Dollar* Chart 17Euro Chart 18Sterling Miroslav Aradski, Senior Analyst miroslava@bcaresearch.com
Highlights The appearance of two virtuous circles will cause the real broad trade-weighted dollar to strengthen by 10% over the next 12 months. The Fed's efforts to run a "high pressure" economy will create a self-reinforcing cycle where accelerating wage growth boosts household spending, leading to faster wage growth and even more spending. Stronger growth will prompt the market to price in more rate hikes over the coming years, propelling the dollar higher. A rising dollar will boost activity in the euro area and Japan. An improved economic outlook will push up inflation expectations in these economies, causing real rates to fall. This, in turn, will usher in a second virtuous circle in which lower real rates put further downward pressure on the euro and the yen, leading to even faster growth. Global equities are likely to struggle in the near term, as investors discount a more aggressive path for Fed tightening. Once the dust has settled, however, higher beta markets such as Europe and Japan should outperform in local-currency terms. We are closing our long Treasurys/short German bunds trade for a gain of 18%. Feature The Dollar Is Heading Higher Chart 1Most Forecasters Expect Household ##br## Spending Growth To Slow The appearance of two virtuous circles will cause the real broad trade-weighted dollar to strengthen by 10% over the next 12 months. The first virtuous circle will push up real yields in the U.S., while the second will push down real yields in key economies such as Europe and Japan. Taken together, this will cause real yield differentials to widen sharply in favor of the U.S., sending the greenback higher. Virtuous Circle #1: Accelerating wage growth boosts U.S. consumption, leading to even faster wage growth and more spending. This forces the Fed to hike rates more than what the market is currently discounting. Real personal consumption has grown by 3% since mid-2013, even as the rest of the economy has expanded by a middling 0.7%. Most analysts expect consumption growth to decelerate next year to around 2.4%, based on Bloomberg estimates (Chart 1). There is no shortage of reasons for why consumer spending may slow. The drop in energy prices since mid-2014 has saved households an annualized $120 billion at the pump, and an additional $30 billion in the form of lower utility bills - equivalent to around 1% of disposable income. This has given households scope to increase spending on other items. Now that oil prices appear to have bottomed, this windfall will cease to grow. Rising asset prices have also stoked consumption. The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City home price index has risen by 37% since early 2012, while the Wilshire 5000 index has gained 54% (Chart 2). Largely due to these developments, household net worth has increased from 538% of disposable income to 637% over this period, according to the Fed's Flow of Funds accounts. Looking out, we expect U.S. equities to deliver only 2%-to-3% real total returns over the coming decade. Home price appreciation should also flatten out, now that real home prices have moved back above their pre-bubble levels (Chart 3). Chart 2Rising Asset Prices Have Inflated Household Net Worth Chart 3U.S. House Prices Are Not Cheap Anymore Meanwhile, banks are starting to tighten lending standards in some consumer credit categories (Chart 4). Most notably, auto loan standards have tightened markedly, following a number of years of sharp easing. This could pose a headwind to vehicle sales in the coming year. Growth in aggregate hours worked has also decelerated over the past five quarters (Chart 5), a trend that should persist. We expect payroll growth to slow to around 100,000 a month in the next few years, as remaining labor market slack is absorbed. However, therein lies the upside for consumer spending. As the labor market begins to overheat, wage growth is likely to accelerate further (Chart 6). A one percent increase in wage growth boosts aggregate household income by as much as 120,000 additional jobs per month. Chart 4Consumer Lending ##br##Standards Are Starting To Tighten Chart 5Deceleration In ##br##Aggregate Hours Worked Chart 6Diminished Labor Market Slack ##br##Should Boost Wages Our sense is that the U.S. labor market is now approaching full employment. Granted, the employment-to-population ratio for prime-aged workers is still 2.3% below its pre-recession levels. However, as Chart 7 illustrates, this particular metric was trending lower even before the Great Recession began, suggesting that much of its decline is structural in nature. The data seems to bear this is out. Among the 23 million Americans between the ages of 25-to-54 who are currently out of the labor force, only 10.6% report wanting a job. This number is not much higher than before the crisis (Chart 8). The vast majority of nonparticipants are either homemakers, taking care of dependents, in school, claim they are ill or disabled, or have taken early retirement (Chart 9). Chart 7A Structural Downtrend In Labor ##br##Market Engagement Chart 8Not Many Potential ##br##Workers On The Sidelines Chart 9Most Who Do Not Work ##br##Choose Not To Work If the late 1990s is any guide, an overheated labor market is likely to push up labor's share of national income, allowing household earnings to grow more quickly than GDP. Back then, growth in aggregate wages and salaries among private-sector workers reached nearly 10% (Chart 10). Such blockbuster gains are improbable this time around owing to both lower structural productivity and slower labor force growth. Nevertheless, nominal wage growth could still rise to 5%-6% from the current lackluster pace of 3.7%, helping to bolster consumer spending. In addition, the experience of the 1990s suggests that a tight labor market will particularly benefit less-skilled workers (Chart 11).1 This is simply because less-educated workers are typically the first to be fired, and the last to be hired. Since poorer households tend to spend a larger share of their incomes, this will have a disproportionately large impact on consumption. Chart 10Lesson From The 1990s Chart 11The Real Beneficiaries Of A Tight Labor Market Would higher wage growth cause firms to reduce investment spending? The evidence says otherwise. Business investment has grown sluggishly in this economic recovery, even though profit margins have risen sharply. Thus, high corporate profitability is not a precondition for greater investment spending. If anything, business capex tends to increase during periods when the labor share of income is rising (Chart 12). This reflects the fact that business investment represents what economists call "derived demand." Firms typically expand capacity only when they feel that final demand for their goods or services will increase. Put differently, if consumers spend more, firms will invest more. Chart 12Firms Invest More When Workers Earn More The end result could be the emergence of a virtuous circle in which rising wages push up consumer spending, causing firms to hire more workers and invest in new capacity leading, in turn, to even faster wage growth. In fact, it is possible that the Fed's decision to let the economy run hot for a while pushes it towards an equilibrium where both aggregate demand and the neutral rate of interest - r* - are permanently higher. Chart 13 shows how such multiple equilibria can arise. Chart 13Double-Crossed: Multiple Equilibria In A Keynesian Demand Model Of course, at some point, the Fed would need to step in to cool things down by hiking rates more quickly than inflation is rising. This would translate into an increase in real interest rates, the consequence of which would be a stronger dollar. This is not just a theoretical possibility: The dollar has, in fact, tended to strengthen meaningfully whenever the labor share of income is rising and the jobless rate has fallen below its full employment level (Chart 14). Virtuous Circle #2: A stronger dollar boosts activity in the euro area and Japan. This pushes up inflation expectations in those economies, causing real rates to fall. Lower real rates put downward pressure on the euro and the yen, leading to even faster growth. How can stronger growth lead to higher real rates in the U.S. but lower real rates in Europe? The answer stems from the economics of liquidity traps. As discussed above, the U.S. economy is nearing full employment. As such, the Fed is no longer constrained by the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. In contrast, inflation is well below target in both the euro area and Japan (Chart 15). This means that neither the ECB nor the BoJ will raise rates, even if growth picks up. What stronger growth will do in both economies is eat away at deflationary pressures. The upshot will be higher inflation expectations, lower real rates, and a weaker euro and yen. Chart 14Virtuous Dollar Circle #1 In Action Chart 15ECB And BoJ: In No Position To Tighten Admittedly, high levels of unemployment in Southern Europe will limit the extent to which stronger demand in those economies translates into higher inflation. Nevertheless, the region will still benefit from a weaker euro - and the boost to external competitiveness that this brings. Moreover, with the German unemployment rate at a 25-year low, a cheaper currency will generate more meaningful inflation in Europe's largest economy. This would help erode Germany's gigantic 8% of GDP current account surplus, which has been a key force in propping up the euro. It would also facilitate the "internal devaluation" that Southern Europe has to undertake without the need for grinding deflation in that region. We doubt that either the BoJ or the ECB would do anything to abort this virtuous circle. For his part, Governor Kuroda has stated that he wants inflation to rise above 2% in order to make up for the fact that inflation has consistently run short of the BoJ's target. To back up this pledge, the BoJ is giving the Ministry of Finance a blank check by promising to undertake unlimited bond purchases while keeping the 10-year yield pegged at zero. Thus, not only does the Japanese government need not worry about paying any interest on its debt, it also does not have to worry about repaying the principal, since the BoJ is buying more bonds than the government is issuing. Mario Draghi is also likely to lean into any inflationary tailwind. We expect the ECB to extend its asset purchase program at its December meeting for another six months, which is currently set to end in March 2017. The Governing Council may also signal that it will consider expanding the eligibility rules for bond purchases and modifying the existing capital key allocation. Investment Conclusions Two weeks ago, we argued that in the absence of Fed tightening, U.S. growth could reach 2.8% next year on the back of a turn in the inventory cycle, a pickup in business investment, and increased fiscal spending at the federal, state, and local levels.2 Consistent with Chair Yellen's desire to run a "high pressure" economy, the Fed would welcome faster growth, even if this pushes core inflation temporarily above 2%. However, memories of the 1970s have not fully gone away. Many of Yellen's FOMC colleagues, including former doves such as John Williams and Eric Rosengren, are already clamoring for higher rates. This means that if growth does pick up, the Fed will continue emptying the punch bowl. We expect the FOMC to raise rates twice next year, in addition to the 25 basis-point hike we are penciling in for December. This pales in comparison to the mere 54 basis points in hikes the market is pricing in through to end-2018 (Chart 16). Chart 16Market Rate Expectations Further Out Remain Muted Chart 17 shows that rate differentials between the U.S. and its trading partners have widened over the past four months, even as the dollar has traded sideways. Thus, even if rate differentials remain broadly constant, a case can be made for a stronger dollar over the coming months. The analysis above, however, suggests that rate differentials are likely to widen further. This should turbocharge any dollar rally. A 10% appreciation in the real broad trade-weighted dollar index may sound like a lot, but keep in mind that the dollar has weakened by 2% since January. Thus, we are only talking about a rise of 8% from where it was earlier this year. As Chart 18 shows, this would still leave the greenback 3% and 15% below its 2002 and 1985 peaks, respectively. Chart 17U.S. Rate Hikes Will Push Up The Dollar Chart 18Still Far From Past Peaks Chart 19Japanese And European Stocks Tend To Outperform In A Rising Yield Environment The current high sensitivity of the dollar to changes in interest rate differentials means that most of the tightening in financial conditions that the Fed will need to achieve over the next few years is likely to come through a stronger currency rather than higher bond yields. Nevertheless, yields are likely to drift higher. Consistent with the views of our Global Fixed Income Strategy service,3 at this point, we see more upside for Treasury yields than for yields in most other developed markets. With that in mind, we are closing our long Treasurys/short German bunds trade for a gain of 18%. Turning to equities, the need for the market to price in a more aggressive path for Fed tightening poses near-term downside risks to global stocks. We remain tactically cautious. Once the dust has settled, however, higher beta equity markets are likely to outperform. As my colleague Anastasios Avgeriou has highlighted, European and Japanese stocks generally do well in a rising yield environment (Chart 19). Moreover, as Chart 20 illustrates, such an environment could benefit global banks shares, which remain among the most despised sectors of the market.4 Chart 20AHigher Yields Would Benefit Banks... Chart 20B... As Would Steeper Yield Curves Our bullishness does not fully extend to emerging markets. An appreciating dollar could hurt EMs in three ways. First, a stronger dollar could weigh on commodity prices. Second, it could punish EM borrowers with significant dollar liabilities. Third, Fed rate hikes are liable to reduce global dollar liquidity, making it difficult for a number of emerging economies to attract enough foreign capital to finance their current account deficits. Some emerging markets rank higher on this list of vulnerabilities than others. China, for instance, ranks relatively low, given its current account surplus, moderate levels of external debt, and its status as a net commodity importer. As such, while we expect the RMB to weaken against the dollar, it is likely to strengthen on a trade-weighted basis. Peter Berezin, Senior Vice President Global Investment Strategy peterb@bcaresearch.com 1 For example, see Harry J. Holzer, Steven Raphael, and Michael A. Stoll, "Employers In The Boom: How Did The Hiring Of Less-Skilled Workers Change During The 1990s?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 88:2 (2006), pp. 283-299. 2 Please see Global Investment Strategy Weekly Report, "Better U.S. Economic Data Will Cause The Dollar To Strengthen," dated October 14, 2016, available at gis.bcaresearch.com. 3 Please see Global Fixed Income Strategy Weekly Report, "Return Of The Bond Vigilantes," dated October 18, 2016, available at gfis.bcaresearch.com. 4 Please see Global Alpha Sector Strategy , "The Great (Debt) Wall Of China," dated May 27, 2016, available at gss.bcaresearch.com. Strategy & Market Trends* Tactical Trades Strategic Recommendations Closed Trades
Highlights The perceived shape of Brexit is the single most important driver of the pound and most U.K. assets. The U.K. Courts are due to deliver landmark legal rulings, which have huge implications for the perceived shape of Brexit. Expect an eventual soft Brexit if the Courts decide against the U.K. government and deem that triggering Article 50 requires parliamentary approval. Expect a much harder Brexit if the Courts decide in favour of the U.K. government. Tactical investors should consider owning some very short-term call options on pound/dollar or a combination of call and put options. Feature Within the next two weeks, the U.K. High Court will deliver a landmark legal ruling which will have huge implications for the future of the U.K. and Europe. Chart of the WeekDifferent Levels Of Brexit Mean Different Levels Of The Pound The U.K. High Court will rule whether Prime Minister Theresa May can start the legal process to exit the EU using the so-called 'royal prerogative' - the power granted to governments to make decisions without a vote from parliament. If May cannot use the royal prerogative, she will require an Act of Parliament to trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. The High Court judgement hinges on a fundamental issue. Triggering Article 50 necessarily means that the current government will overturn previous parliamentary decisions - the European Communities Act (1972) and European Union Act (2011). Does the constitution permit a government to overturn parliamentary decisions, take away treaties, and remove the population's legal rights without obtaining parliamentary approval? Although we are not legal experts, the court could regard that as overstretching government authority. If the High Court's judgement does go against the U.K. government, expect pound/dollar to rally immediately by about 4-5 cents. Conversely, a judgement in favour of the government could see the pound sell off by about 1-2 cents. Given the possibility of this gapping, tactical investors should consider owning some very short-term call options on pound/dollar, or a combination of call and put options. Nevertheless, the story will not end with the High Court. Whichever side loses will appeal the decision and take the case to the Supreme Court, which is expected to respond by the end of the year. This ultimate pronouncement of law will have a landmark bearing on the shape of Brexit and, thereby, the future of the U.K. and the other EU 27. Where Is The Pound Headed Longer-Term? For investors, the spectrum of Brexit possibilities - no Brexit, 'soft' Brexit, 'hard' Brexit, or 'very hard' Brexit - will be the single-most important driver of the pound, and by extension, other U.K. assets. Of course, U.K. asset prices ultimately depend on economic and financial fundamentals. But Chart I-2, Chart I-3, Chart I-4, Chart I-5, Chart I-6, Chart I-7 illustrate that by far the most important fundamental for all U.K. assets right now is the perceived hardness of Brexit, as captured in the pound's value. Chart I-2Harder Brexit Means The Eurostoxx600 ##br##Underperforms The FTSE100... Chart I-3...And The FTSE250 ##br##Underperforms The FTSE100 Chart I-4Harder Brexit Means U.K. ##br##Goods Exporters Outperform... Chart I-5Harder Brexit Means ##br##Retailers Underperform... Chart I-6...Travel And Leisure Underperforms... Chart I-7...And Real Estate Underperforms Pound/dollar has (so far) traded at three distinct levels, based on three distinct levels of perceived Brexit severity: near 1.50 before the Brexit vote; near 1.30 after the Brexit vote but perceiving a soft Brexit; and near 1.20 after Theresa May announced that she would trigger Article 50 by next March and was contemplating a hard Brexit (Chart of the Week). Hence the (post-appeal) outcome of the legal case against the government carries great significance. If the government loses, and requires a parliamentary vote to trigger Article 50, several consequences follow. Theresa May's end-March deadline for firing the Brexit starting gun would become very difficult to meet, severely delaying the whole process. Would the government even win a parliamentary majority? If in doubt, would the government call a snap General Election to try and beef up its majority? The current batch of parliamentarians has a strong bias for staying in the EU, but it would be difficult to fly in the face of the referendum result. On the other hand, the checks and balances of parliament are there precisely to stop the country walking over the cliff-edge that a very hard Brexit would be. All the while, with investment slowing and higher inflation from the weaker pound squeezing household real incomes, the economic headwinds from the U.K.s limbo status would be becoming more apparent. Given the high stakes and likely irreversibility of the formal legal process, parliamentarians would rightfully want to examine and approve the U.K.'s negotiating hand. It seems that Parliament would almost certainly water down or delay Brexit before voting it through. Hence, if the government loses its legal case after appeal, Brexit will likely end up in a soft form. And pound/dollar will ultimately elevate to 1.35. Conversely, if the government wins its legal case after appeal, Theresa May will be on course to trigger Article 50 early next year, as promised. At which point, the EU 27's optimal game-theoretical first play is to be very aggressive - effectively opening with a very hard Brexit offer as described in the next section. Whereupon, pound/dollar would find its fourth, even lower, new level: near 1.10. Two Myths About Brexit It is important to debunk a couple of common myths about Brexit. First, that the U.K.'s current position as the EU 28's second largest economy will force the remaining EU 27 to give the U.K. a special status - allowing access to the three freedoms of goods, services, and capital but with controls on the fourth freedom of movement: people. This belief is misplaced. The biggest worry for the EU 27 is that a special status for Britain could catalyse other countries, under populist pressure, to ask for equivalent deals. The EU 27 does not want to give Marine Le Pen the opportunity to say "let's follow the Brits, they've negotiated a great deal." Hence, the U.K. will not get special treatment. Quite the contrary, it must be seen to be paying a substantial price for Brexit. Even for Anglophile Angela Merkel, protecting the indivisibility of the four freedoms and the integrity of the EU is the overriding priority. If the U.K. restricts free movement of people, it almost certainly means a hard Brexit: substantially restricted access to the single market. The U.K. would then have to negotiate a free trade agreement (FTA) with the EU. Given the current difficulty that Canada is experiencing in negotiating a FTA, this might not be a straightforward process for the U.K either. Furthermore, as a FTA does not usually cover services, it would handicap the services-heavy U.K. economy, while perfectly suiting the goods-heavy German economy. A second common belief is that the pound will act as an automatic economic stabilizer. That irrespective of a very tough deal from the EU 27, a weaker sterling will soothe the pain of a very hard Brexit by making British exports more competitive. Granted, the weaker pound will boost the demand for the U.K.'s goods exports. But total U.K exports are much less sensitive to devaluations compared to when the pound tumbled out of the Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992. Then, just a quarter of the U.K's exports were services; today that proportion is approaching a half (Chart I-8) With the exception of tourism, these services tend to be high value-added financial and business services. Cutting their price will not significantly boost the demand for them. Chart I-8Almost Half Of U.K. Exports Are Services Meanwhile, U.K. consumers will feel distinctly poorer as the sterling prices of food and energy rise (Chart I-9), squeezing real household incomes and spending. In turn, this will leave the Bank of England with a major headache. How best to support real spending: defend the plunging pound to keep a lid on food and energy prices, or cut interest rates? Chart I-9Higher Sterling Prices For Food And Energy Will Squeeze Real Incomes Investment Reductionism For U.K. Assets The charts throughout this report show that the strategy for many U.K. investments reduces to an overriding question. Will the U.K largely retain access to the single market, defining a soft Brexit? Or will the U.K. largely lose access to the single market, defining a hard Brexit? In a soft Brexit: Sterling would rally 10%, taking pound/dollar to 1.35. The Eurostoxx600 and S&P500 would outperform the FTSE100. Within U.K. equities, sterling earners would outperform dollar earners, favouring small and mid-cap over large cap. The FTSE250 would outperform the FTSE100. The heavily domestic-focused retailers, travel and leisure, and real estate sectors would outperform the market. Goods exporters, such as the apparel sector would become less competitive and underperform the market. In a hard Brexit, expect the exact opposite of the above. Pound/dollar would slump 10% to 1.10, and so on. To determine which strategy to follow, await the post-appeal Supreme Court judgement on how Article 50 must be triggered, due at the end of the year. If Article 50 requires parliamentary approval, expect a soft Brexit. If it doesn't require parliamentary approval, expect the Brexit game theory to become hard and aggressive. Right now this is a coin toss, but forced to choose, we expect events may eventually prevent a damaging hard Brexit. Dhaval Joshi, Senior Vice President European Investment Strategy dhaval@bcaresearch.com Fractal Trading Model* This week's trade is another commodity pair trade: long copper / short tin. For any investment, excessive trend following and groupthink can reach a natural point of instability, at which point the established trend is highly likely to break down with or without an external catalyst. An early warning sign is the investment's fractal dimension approaching its natural lower bound. Encouragingly, this trigger has consistently identified countertrend moves of various magnitudes across all asset classes. Chart 10 * For more details please see the European Investment Strategy Special Report "Fractals, Liquidity & A Trading Model," dated December 11, 2014, available at eis.bcaresearch.com The post-June 9, 2016 fractal trading model rules are: When the fractal dimension approaches the lower limit after an investment has been in an established trend it is a potential trigger for a liquidity-triggered trend reversal. Therefore, open a countertrend position. The profit target is a one-third reversal of the preceding 13-week move. Apply a symmetrical stop-loss. Close the position at the profit target or stop-loss. Otherwise close the position after 13 weeks. Use the position size multiple to control risk. The position size will be smaller for more risky positions. Fractal Trading Model Recommendations Equities Bond & Interest Rates Currency & Other Positions Closed Fractal Trades Trades Closed Trades Asset Performance Currency & Bond Equity Sector Country Equity Indicators Bond Yields Chart II-1Indicators To Watch - Bond Yields Chart II-2Indicators To Watch - Bond Yields Chart II-3Indicators To Watch - Bond Yields Chart II-4Indicators To Watch - Bond Yields Interest Rate Chart II-5Indicators To Watch##br## - Interest Rate Expectations Chart II-6Indicators To Watch##br## - Interest Rate Expectations Chart II-7Indicators To Watch##br## - Interest Rate Expectations Chart II-8Indicators To Watch##br## - Interest Rate Expectations
Highlights ECB Monetary Policy: Euro Area inflation will likely remain below the European Central Bank (ECB) 2% target for the next few years due to persistent excess capacity in Europe. The ECB will signal this at the December monetary policy meeting, providing the justification to extend their quantitative easing (QE) asset purchase program beyond the current March 2017 expiration date. ECB QE Changes: The constraints imposed on the ECB's bond purchases are self-imposed, and can be easily altered in the event of potential "shortages" of available debt for the QE program. Fears of a potential taper of ECB buying because of those constraints, which have bearish implications for Euro Area bond yields, are overstated. Country Allocation: Move to an above-benchmark stance on core European government debt, which are a low-beta safe haven in the current environment of a cyclical rise in global bond yields. Feature After spending the past couple of months fretting over the next move by the U.S. Federal Reserve or the Bank of Japan, investors' attention shifted to Europe last week. With the current European Central Bank (ECB) government bond quantitative easing (QE) program set to expire in March of next year, the markets were seeking any sort of guidance on whether the ECB will end the program as scheduled, or extend the program beyond March - perhaps with a reduction ("taper") in the size of the bond buying. ECB President Mario Draghi provided no new information at the post-meeting press conference last Thursday, leaving bond investors in limbo until the December meeting when the results of the ECB's assessment of their QE program will be published. Some alterations of the program will likely be announced, but it is too soon for the ECB to consider ending their QE program. With regards to the title of this Weekly Report - the most likely outcome is that the ECB will extend the QE program past March 2017, but will tinker with the rules of QE in an effort to pretend that the central bank is still following a prudent logic for its purchases. Fears of an early taper are overstated, and this makes core European government debt a potential oasis of safety while global bond yields remain in a bear phase. Plenty Of Reasons For The ECB Not To Taper This talk of a tapering of ECB asset purchases following the scheduled end of the current QE program seems premature. After all, neither the ECB's own economic forecasts, nor those of its Survey of Professional Forecasters, are calling for inflation to get close to the 2% target until at least 2018 (Chart of the Week). The ECB staff will prepare a new set of forecasts for the December policy meeting that will include projections for 2019 - perhaps these new estimates will have inflation finally reaching the 2% goal. But in the absence of a credible forecast of inflation returning to target, the ECB will be hard pressed to signal any move to a less-accommodative monetary policy. Headline Euro Area inflation is currently only 0.4%, despite a recent increase in the oil price denominated in Euros, which has been a reliable directional indicator for Euro Area inflation (Chart 2). Chart of the WeekNo Need For An ECB Taper Chart 2European Inflation Is Stubbornly Low The steady decline in the Euro Area unemployment rate over the past three years has coincided with a move higher in overall labor compensation, but this has been purely a "volume" effect resulting from steadily increasing employment growth. With the entire region not yet at full employment, there has been minimal upward pressure on wages or inflation in domestically focused sectors like services (bottom panel). In other words, the lack of Euro Area inflation is a direct function of the excess capacity in Euro Area product and labor markets. According to the IMF, the Euro Area output gap will not close until 2020, which will limit any rise in inflation over the rest of the decade (Chart 3). It will take a more prolonged period of above-trend economic growth to close the output gap, reducing the Euro Area unemployment rate below the full employment NAIRU level, before any recovery in wages or core inflation can take place (bottom panel). This lack of realized inflation is weighing on Euro Area inflation expectations and creating some potential credibility problems for the ECB. As we have discussed in earlier Weekly Reports, inflation expectations in much of the developed economies seem to follow an "adaptive" process, where expectations are formed in lagged response to actual inflation.1 If central banks are fully credible in their ability to use monetary policy to fight inflation (and demand) shortfalls, then those forward-looking expectations should eventually gravitate towards the central bank inflation target. However, if there is a large and persistent shock to realized inflation, then inflation expectations can deviate from the central bank target for an extended period. Using a 5-year moving average of realized headline CPI inflation as a proxy for inflation expectations is a reasonably good (albeit simple) approximation of this adaptive process (Chart 4). The current 60-month moving average for Euro Area headline inflation is 0.6%, not far from the 5-year Euro Area CPI swap rate of 0.9%. However, if the ECB's inflation forecasts for the next two years come to fruition (1.2% in 2017, 1.6% in 2018), then the 5-year moving average will continue to decline, as those higher inflation figures would not offset the sharp fall in inflation witnessed over the past few years. Chart 3Excess Capacity Holding Inflation Down Chart 4Inflation Expectations Will Stay Low Simply put, the ECB's current projections are not consistent with inflation expectations hitting the 2% target by 2018, and likely even beyond that. The ECB will be presenting new projections in December, but it would take a significant upgrade of their growth and inflation forecasts to "move the needle" on longer-term inflation expectations. Perhaps a move away from fiscal austerity across the Euro Area could trigger an upgrade on growth expectations, as that would imply a faster pace of growth and a more rapidly narrowing output gap. However, while the topic of greater fiscal spending has been heating up in the halls of governments in Washington, London and Tokyo, there has been little sign that Euro Area governments are about to open the fiscal spigots anytime soon (and certainly not before elections in Germany and France in 2017). Chart 5European Banks Getting More Cautious? ECB Still Needs To Support Loan Growth The state of Euro Area banks, and what it means for future lending activity, is another factor for the ECB to consider before contemplating any move to a less-accommodative monetary policy. The current growth rates of money and credit are showing no signs of significant deceleration (Chart 5). The latest ECB Euro Area bank lending survey, released last week, did show a modest decline in the net number of banks reporting easier lending standards to businesses, as well as a reduction in the number of banks reporting increasing loan demand from firms. The ongoing hit to European bank profitability from the current negative interest rate environment could be playing a role in the banks moving to a less easy environment for lending. As can be seen in the bottom panel of Chart 5, there is a reliable leading relationship between Euro Area bank equity prices and the growth in bank lending to businesses. The downturn in Euro Area bank stocks in 2016, which has been driven by declining profit expectations, could pose a risk to credit growth in the months ahead. According to a special question asked within the ECB's bank lending survey, a net 82% of respondents reported that the ECB's negative deposit rate has damaged banks' net interest income over the past six months.2 In that same survey, a net 12% of banks reported a boost to loan demand from the ECB's negative interest rate policy, and a net 15% of banks reported that the additional liquidity provided by the ECB bond purchases went towards extending loans to businesses. So while negative interest rates may be hurting bank profit margins, the impact of the ECB's QE is helping offset that to some degree by providing banks with capital gains on their bond portfolios that can be used to finance lending. So without any sign that inflation will soon approach the ECB's target, thus requiring a potential tapering of QE or even a move away from negative interest rates, the prudent course for the ECB to take to support Euro Area credit demand, and economic growth, is to continue with the QE program beyond the March 2017 expiration date. That will require some changes to the ECB's rules of the program, but, in the end, these are only self-imposed constraints. Bottom Line: Euro Area inflation will likely remain below the ECB 2% target over the next few years due to persistent excess capacity in Europe. The ECB will signal this at the December monetary policy meeting, providing the justification to extend their quantitative easing asset purchase program beyond the current March 2017 expiration date. The ECB Has Some Policy Options To Avoid A Taper Tantrum Core European bond yields have been depressed by the ECB's QE program, which have acted to push down both the future expected path of interest rates and the term premium (Chart 6). This has helped anchor real bond yields in negative territory, even with inflation expectations at such low levels. But any signs of potential slowing of the pace of QE buying could quickly unwind this effect, which makes the ECB's next steps so critical for the path of global bond yields. In Chart 7, we show the level and growth rate for the ECB's monetary base, along with five potential future scenarios: The ECB ends their QE program in March 2017, as currently planned; The ECB extends QE for six months to September 2017, at the current pace of €80bn in bond buying per month; The ECB extends QE program for twelve months to March 2018, at a pace of €80bn per month; The ECB extends QE to September 2017, but reduces the pace of purchases to €60bn per month; The ECB extends QE to March 2018, but cuts to €60bn per month. Chart 6ECB QE Still Holding Down Yields Chart 7ECB Needs To Keep The Monetary Base Growing As can be seen in the bottom panel of Chart 7, the growth rate of the ECB's monetary base (and the asset side of their balance sheet) will decelerate sharply in 2017 & 2018 if the ECB does end the QE program as scheduled next March. Extending the program, however, does push out the rapid deceleration phase for monetary base into 2018. This is of critical importance for the Euro Area bond market, as both the outright level and term premium component of German Bund yields have been broadly correlated with the growth rate of the monetary base (Chart 8). In other words, extending the ECB QE program into the future is most important to prevent a "taper tantrum" in European bonds, by signalling to the markets that the ECB wishes to maintain low interest rates for longer. The ECB could even announce a reduction in the pace of purchases, along with an extension, and bond yields should remain well-behaved. This will also help prevent an unwanted appreciation of the Euro, the value of which currently reflects the far easier monetary stance in Europe (Chart 9). Chart 8An ECB Taper Would Be Bad For Bunds Chart 9An Easy-For-Longer ECB Will Weigh On The Euro Given the persistent debates within the ECB (and between the ECB and some Euro Area governments) about the long-run merits of QE, the combination of both an extension and reduction in QE purchases could be the compromise option that satisfies all parties. Alternatively, the ECB could choose to maintain the pace of bond purchases but alter the selection rules governing the program. Given the recent concerns in bond markets that the ECB is "running out of bonds to buy", changing the rules of the QE program is a sensible way for the central bank to free itself from the self-imposed shackles on its bond purchases. There are three options that the ECB can consider: Moving away from strictly allocating the bond purchases according to the ECB "capital key", which essentially weights the bond purchases by the size of each economy; Raising the issuer limits on QE, which limits the ECB to holding no more than 33% of any single issuer or individual bond issue; Reducing the current yield floor on QE, which prevents the ECB from buying any bonds with yields below the ECB deposit rate, which is currently -0.4%; We think option 1 is the least likely to occur, as this would imply buying a greater share of countries with more problematic debt profiles, like Italy or Portugal. There is little chance of such a strategy being well received by the governments in Berlin and Brussels, and the ECB would likely wish to avoid a major political confrontation by allowing larger deviations from the capital key Option 2 is an easier solution to implement. The 33% issuer constraint was always an arbitrary level that was aimed more at bonds with so-called "collective action clauses", where a majority of bondholders can force a decision on all bondholders in the event of a debt restructuring. It is understandable why the ECB would not want to become to decision-making counterparty in the event of a future messy bond restructuring in Europe. However, the ECB's ownership percentages within each Euro Area country are nowhere near the 33% limit at the moment (Chart 10) and, at the current pace and composition of buying, that 33% limit will not even be reached for Germany anytime soon.3 There is room for the ECB to raise the issuer limits, as it has already done for some other parts of its asset purchase programs, like bonds issued by European Union supranationals.4 Chart 10ECB Holdings Are Far From The 33% Issuer Limit Chart 11Lowering The Yield Floor For QE Makes Sense Option 3 is the most binding constraint of all on the ECB purchases, as very large shares of the European government bond market are now trading below the ECB's -0.4% deposit rate (Chart 11). In the case of Germany, nearly 70% of all QE-eligible debt is trading below the ECB's yield floor, which has raised investor concerns that the ECB will soon be unable to buy enough German debt at the current pace of purchases. However, that yield floor constraint is completely arbitrary - there is nothing stopping the ECB from buying bonds trading at a yield below the deposit rate, other than (we suspect) a desire to impose some sort of price discipline on the QE buying to make the ECB appear more credible with its purchases. Chart 12The QE Yield Floor Can Be Changed If the ECB decided to lower the yield floor below the current -0.4% deposit rate, this would open up a greater share of the core European bond markets to QE buying (Chart 12). This would also change the current market narrative that the ECB will soon run out of German bonds to buy. In the end, the most likely path the ECB will take following its December re-assessment of its QE program is a combination of lowering the yield floor on QE bond purchases below -0.4% and raising the issuer limits above 33%. There appears to be plenty of leeway for the ECB to alter their purchases, but without necessarily reducing the monthly pace of buying. Combined with an extension of the end-date of the QE program beyond March, this should alleviate any concerns that the ECB will soon hit a wall with its asset purchases. Bottom Line: The constraints imposed on the ECB's bond purchases are self-imposed, and can be easily altered in the event of potential "shortages" of available debt for the QE program. Fears of a potential taper of ECB buying because of those constraints are overstated. Investment Implications: Move To An Above-Benchmark Stance On Core European Bonds With the ECB having no need to end its QE program early, the case for moving to an overweight stance on core Europe is a strong one. As we noted in our last Weekly Report, favoring bond markets of countries with the lowest inflation rates is a logical investment strategy in the current environment of a modest cyclical upturn in global growth and inflation.5 That justifies our current below-benchmark recommendation on U.S. and U.K. government debt, as both realized inflation and expected inflation are rising in both countries. That leaves the Euro Area and Japan as possible candidates to move to above-benchmark weightings, given their defensive properties as low-beta bond markets. Although with the Bank of Japan now pegging the Japanese government bond (JGB) yield curve with a 10-year yield at 0%, we do not see a compelling investment case for overweighting JGBs as a defensive trade. If an investor wants safety at a 0% yield - with no chance of a capital gain from a decline in yields - than owning T-bills, or even gold, is just as viable as owning JGBs. We recently upgraded Japan to neutral in our recommended portfolio allocation, and we see no reason to move from that. Thus, core European bonds stand out as the candidate to upgrade as a defensive trade during the current bond bear phase, which we expect will continue until at least December when the Fed is expected to deliver another rate hike in the U.S. We see a case for moving to above-benchmark for both Germany and France, but especially so in the latter. The beta of bond returns between France and both the U.S. (Chart 13) & U.S.(Chart 14) is very low, making French bonds a good market to favor at the expense of U.S. Treasuries and U.K. Gilts in currency-hedged bond portfolios. Chart 13French Bonds Are Low Beta To USTs... Chart 14...And To U.K. Gilts Bottom Line: Move to an above-benchmark stance on core European government debt, which are a low-beta safe haven in the current environment of a cyclical rise in global bond yields. Robert Robis, Senior Vice President Global Fixed Income Strategy rrobis@bcaresearch.com 1 Please see BCA Global Fixed Income Strategy Weekly Report, "Why Are Global Inflation Expectations Still So Low", dated March 1, 2016, available at gfis.bcaresearch.com. 2 The Q4 2016 ECB Euro Area Bank Lending Survey can be found at https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/pdf/blssurvey_201610.pdf. 3 Please note that the denominator in the percentages shown in Chart 10 include only bonds with maturities that are eligible for ECB QE purchases, omitting bonds that will mature in less than 2 year and more than 30 years. 4 For more details on that change to the supranational issuer limits, please see https://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/implement/omt/html/pspp-qa.en.html. 5 Please see BCA Global Fixed Income Strategy Weekly Report, "Return Of The Bond Vigilantes", dated October 18, 2016, available at gfis.bcaresearch.com. The GFIS Recommended Portfolio Vs. The Custom Benchmark Index Recommendations Duration Regional Allocation Spread Product Tactical Trades Yields & Returns Global Bond Yields Historical Returns
Highlights The U.S. is not yet a "high-pressure" economy, but slack is dissipating. U.S. growth, while not torrid, will remain high enough to push interest rates higher. The euro area continues to exhibit tepid domestic demand growth, and slack there remains higher than in the U.S. Monetary divergences will grow, weighing on EUR/USD. The Canadian economy displays underlying weaknesses which will prevent the BoC from hiking for an extended period of time. Stay long USD/CAD, but favor the CAD to the AUD and the NZD on a USD rally. Feature Following Janet Yellen's Boston speech last week, a new phrase has entered the lexicon of investors: "high-pressure economy". The speech was originally interpreted as a clarion call to let the economy overheat in order to absorb the slack created by the shock of 2008. However, Yellen still sees some slack in the economy. In her eyes, an easy monetary stance, at this point, will not cause an overheating, it will only bring back to the marketplace workers that had left the labor force. Chart I-1Drying Global Liquidity We have sympathy toward this view, especially when put in an international context where global capacity utilization remains depressed. Also, countries like China, Saudi Arabia, and Mexico have been intervening in the FX markets to preempt or limit downside to their currencies, tightening global liquidity conditions (Chart I-1). Nonetheless, the Fed Chair also highlighted that the FOMC did not want the U.S. economy to overheat as the domestic slack gets absorbed. Doing so would raise the risk that the Fed will have to then overcompensate by tightening rates very aggressively. This would prompt another recession. U.S.: Not High Pressure Yet, But... No indicator suggests that there is a burning need to quickly ratchet U.S. rates higher. However, domestic economic conditions are falling into place to justify a slow move toward higher rates. Our aggregate U.S. capacity utilization gauge is showing a dissipation of U.S. economic slack (Chart I-2, top panel). This is a side-effect of the tepid growth in the capital stock of U.S. businesses this cycle, which limits the expansion of the supply-side of the economy (Chart I-2, bottom panel). Meanwhile, household consumption should remain robust. Not only did 2015 register the strongest growth in the median household's real income since 1967, consumption is unlikely to slow much. In fact, vehicle-miles traveled and the Federal income tax receipts are both pointing toward healthy consumption (Chart I-3). Despite punky construction starts, housing activity shows signs of improvement. Housing inventories are near record lows and construction has underperformed household formation. Moreover, building permits are hooking upward, while housing affordability remains generous (Chart I-4). Additionally, the NAHB survey also points toward a rising share of residential activity in the economy (Chart I-4, bottom panel). Finally, capex intentions are slowly recovering. Moreover, the BCA House view is that the U.S. profit contraction is past its nadir. Going forward, capex and inventories are unlikely to subtract as much from growth as they did in 2015 and 2016. They may even become accretive to GDP growth. Chart I-2Vanishing U.S. Slack Chart I-3Positive Signs For The U.S. Consumer Chart I-4Residential Investment Will Improve Limited slack and a continued economic expansion imply a high likelihood of a Fed hike this year, and maybe two more next year if no shocks to financial conditions emerge. With markets currently pricing in 65 basis points of rate hikes by the end of 2019, this should lift rates across the curve. Higher interest rates on U.S. assets should drive private inflows into the country, pushing the U.S. dollar higher (Chart I-5). From a technical perspective, the U.S. capitulation index is breaking out to the upside following a pattern of lower highs. Since 2008, such breakouts have been followed by a significant rally in the broad trade-weighted dollar (Chart I-6). Thus, we continue to position ourselves for additional dollar strength this cycle. Chart I-5Flows Into The U.S. ##br##Are Set To Grow Chart I-6Favorable Technical ##br##Backdrop For The Greenback Bottom Line: The household sector remains healthy, and U.S. economic slack is dissipating. Hence, the Fed will try, rightfully or wrongly, to push rates higher this year and next, lifting the dollar in the process. Euro Area: Less Pressure A dollar rally could be painful for the euro. Yet, the euro is cheap and supported by a current account surplus of 3.3% of GDP (Chart I-7). What to do with this conflicting picture? For a currency to embark on a durable bull market, productivity growth needs to be stronger than that of its trading partners. A strong currency makes the tradeable-goods sector less competitive, hampering growth. A positive terms-of-trade shock, like that undergone by commodity producers during the previous decade can also do the trick. Neither of these statements currently describe the euro area. Another avenue for a country to withstand a strong currency is for growth to be domestically driven. If household consumption is the main locomotive, exporters' loss of market share do not hurt activity as much. This is true until the domestic economy enters a recession, an event usually driven by higher policy rates. This is why when the share of salaries in the U.S. economy expands, the dollar undergoes cyclical bull markets (Chart I-8). More salaries in the national income means more consumption. Chart I-7Euro ##br##Supports Chart I-8Domestically-Driven Growth##br## Is Good For A Currency In the euro area, GDP growth is above trend, but, in recent quarters, final private domestic demand has been weak (Chart I-9). In fact, last quarter, net exports were the main contributor to growth. This could explain why, since 2015, stronger European business surveys vis-à-vis the U.S. were unable to boost EUR/USD (Chart I-10). Chart I-9European Consumption##br## Isn't Strong Chart I-10If EUR/USD Could Not ##br##Rally Then, When Will It? We do expect eurozone final domestic demand to remain tepid. Yes, the credit impulse has improved, but this amelioration will prove temporary. The previous rebound in credit flows reflected the movement from a large contraction to a small expansion. Today, the dismal performance of euro area bank stocks - which have been a good leading indicator of European loan growth - points to slowing credit growth (Chart I-11). Fiscal policy is also moving from a small positive to a small negative. Work by the ECB staff shows that the cyclically adjusted budget balance in Europe fell by 0.3%, from -1.7% to -2.0% of GDP in 2016. Aggregate cyclically-adjusted budget balances are forecasted to improve to -1.8% and -1.6% of GDP in 2017 and 2018, respectively, representing a 0.2% fiscal drag each year. While a small number, we have to keep in mind that euro area trend growth is between 0.5% and 1%. This suggests that the European economy remains ill-equipped to handle a stronger euro. Moreover, the European economy exhibits much more slack than the U.S. economy. While total hours worked in the U.S. are 14% above Q1 2010 levels, in Europe, they are only 1.5% above such levels (Chart I-12), a gap much greater than demographics alone would have suggested. This means that monetary divergence will continue between Europe and the U.S. Chart I-11Euro Area Credit Impulse Will Weaken Chart I-12Less Capacity Pressures In Europe In fact, this week, the ECB did little to dispel this notion. Beyond trying to squash ideas of a sudden end to the QE program or any imminent tapering, president Draghi communicated that December will be the month when the real action occurs. Based on current trends, we expect the ECB to extend its QE program beyond March, but to hint at a tapering of purchases later in 2017. The ECB will also make it very clear that rates will remain as low as they currently are for an extremely long time. Thus, while the ECB might be slowly moving away from its hyper-stimulative stance, it will not do so as fast as the Fed. Therefore, policy divergences should continue to weigh on EUR/USD. Technicals are also pointing toward a lower euro. Not only has EUR/USD broken down its 1-year old series of higher lows, the euro's capitulation index, the intermediate-term momentum indicator, and the euro's A/D line are forming negative divergences with EUR/USD (Chart I-13). An interesting way to play the euro's weakness is to go short EUR/CZK, a position championed by our Emerging Market Strategy service.1 A floor at 27 has been set under EUR/CZK since November 2013. Yet, this floor looks increasingly untenable. Speculators are beginning to pile in. This week, 2-year Czech yields temporarily dipped below those of Swiss 2-year bonds, the current holder of the world's lowest yield. To fight appreciation pressures, the Czech National Bank (CNB) is accumulating a lot of reserves by buying euros, which is fueling a surge in the money supply (Chart I-14, top panel). Chart I-13Worrying Euro ##br##Technicals Chart I-14CZK: Reserves Expansion##br## Leading To Inflation This accumulation of reserves, in turn, is fanning inflationary forces in the Czech economy. The output gap is closing and core inflation already is increasing at a rate of 1.8% p.a. Easy financial conditions and expanding credit growth are likely to boost already-accelerating unit labor costs and wages (Chart I-14, bottom panel). This means that the 2% inflation target is likely to be hit as early as Q2 2017 according to the CNB. We expect this goal to be handily surpassed if the floor stays in place. Thus, we expect the CNB to abandon the floor within the next twelve months and we are shorting EUR/CZK. Finally, while we are bearish EUR/USD, we do believe that the euro will outperform the pound and commodity currencies. Moreover, despite poorer fundamentals, the euro could also temporarily outperform the SEK and the NOK if the dollar strengthens. The latter two are more sensitive to the USD than the euro is. Bottom Line: EUR/USD is at risk from the broad dollar rally. It is also likely to suffer from the tepid state of the euro area's final domestic demand, fueling monetary-policy divergences with the U.S. A speculative opportunity to short EUR/CZK is emerging, as the CNB's peg is outliving its usefulness. Canada: Falling Pressure USD/CAD has become more correlated with movements in rate differentials than with the vagaries of oil prices (Chart I-15). This puts the actions of the Bank of Canada in sharper focus. As expected, this week, the BoC left policy rates unchanged at 0.5%. More interesting was the quarterly monetary report. The economy has rebounded from the slump induced by the Q2 Alberta wildfires, and many key gauges of the Canadian economy have improved (Chart I-16). Yet, the BoC is looking the other way. Chart I-15CAD: Now More Rates Than Oil Chart I-16The BoC Is Looking The Other Way... The BoC is now forecasting the Canadian output gap to close in mid-2018; in July, this was expected to happen in the second half of 2017. This is because the BoC cut the expected Canadian growth rate by a cumulative 0.5% over the next two years. There have been some worrying developments warranting a more cautious forecast. While the Trudeau government's new childcare benefits are currently being rolled out and new infrastructure spending is to be implemented in 2017, the Canadian private sector's finances are increasingly shaky. The aggregate debt-servicing costs of the non-financial private sector is at record highs, with generous contributions from both households and the corporate sector (Chart I-17). The aggregate credit impulse has responded to this handicap, contracting by 7% of potential GDP, a move driven by the corporate sector (Chart I-18). While not as dramatic, the pace of debt accumulation by the household sector has also weakened. Recent administrative measures to cool the housing market - put in place by various provincial entities as well as the federal government - could accentuate this trend. Chart I-17...Rightfully So Chart I-18Collapsing Canadian Credit Impulse Another problem for Canada has been its loss of competitiveness. Non-oil Canadian exports have not responded as expected to the fall in the CAD. This is because many Canadian manufacturers have set up factories in Mexico and other EMs, or are competing with firms operating out of these nations. With these countries' currencies witnessing devaluations as deep as, or deeper than the loonie's, it is no wonder that Canada has lost market shares in the U.S. (Chart I-19). This means that Canadian rates will remain low for longer, making Canada another contributor to global monetary divergences vis-a-vis the U.S. The BoC is right to be worried that the Canadian economy will take longer than anticipated to close its output gap. With the pass-through to inflation of a lower CAD dissipating, the BoC expects Canadian core inflation to remain well contained for the next two years. We see little cause to disagree. This means that despite trading at a premium to PPP, USD/CAD has upside. Moreover, the Canadian dollar's A/D line is rolling over, another factor pointing to upside for USD/CAD (Chart I-20). At this point, the biggest risk to our view is oil. If WTI can breakout above $52 - perhaps in response to an as-yet negotiated OPEC/Russia oil-production cut or freeze - this could mitigate the downside for the CAD. Thus, while we like USD/CAD, we think the CAD has upside against the AUD and the NZD, especially as the loonie is less sensitive to the USD and EM spreads than the two antipodean currencies. Chart I-19Canada Is Losing Competitiveness Chart I-20Falling CAD A/D Line Bottom Line: The Canadian economy is showing surprising signs of underlying weakness. With the CAD having recently been more correlated to rate differentials than to oil, USD/CAD could rally on monetary divergences. That being said, on the back of a strong USD, CAD is likely to outperform the AUD and NZD. Mathieu Savary, Vice President Foreign Exchange Strategy mathieu@bcaresearch.com 1 Please see Emerging Markets Strategy Weekly Report, "Central European Strategy: Two Currency Trades", dated September 28, 2016, available at ems.bcaresearch.com Currencies U.S. Dollar Chart II-1USD Technicals 1 Chart II-2USD Technicals 2 Policy Commentary: "The risks have changed in terms of overshooting what I think is full employment with implications for potential imbalances...Those imbalances might result in a reaction by the Fed that we end up having to tighten more quickly than I would like" - FOMC Voting Member Eric Rosengren (October 17, 2016) Report Links: The Pound Falls To The Conquering Dollar - October 14, 2016 The Dollar: The Great Redistributor - October 7, 2016 Long-Term FX Valuation Models: Updates And New Coverages - September 30, 2016 The Euro Chart II-3EUR Technicals 1 Chart II-4EUR Technicals 2 Policy Commentary: "An abrupt ending to bond purchases, I think, is unlikely...We remain committed to preserving a very substantial degree of monetary accommodation" - ECB President Mario Draghi (October 20, 2016) Report Links: The Pound Falls To The Conquering Dollar - October 14, 2016 The Dollar: The Great Redistributor - October 7, 2016 Long-Term FX Valuation Models: Updates And New Coverages - September 30, 2016 The Yen Chart II-5JPY Technicals 1 Chart II-6JPY Technicals 2 Policy Commentary: "Since the employment situation has continued to improve, no further easing of monetary policy may be necessary... at any rate, I would like to discuss this thoroughly with other board members at our monetary policy meeting" - BoJ Board Member Yutaka Harada (October 12, 2016) Report Links: The Pound Falls To The Conquering Dollar - October 14, 2016 The Dollar: The Great Redistributor - October 7, 2016 Long-Term FX Valuation Models: Updates And New Coverages - September 30, 2016 British Pound Chart II-7GBP Technicals 1 Chart II-8GBP Technicals 2 Policy Commentary: "Our judgment in the summer was that we could have seen another 400,000-500,000 people unemployed over the course of the next few years...So we're willing to tolerate a bit of overshoot in inflation over the course of the next few years in order to avoid that situation, to cushion the blow" - BOE Governor Mark Carney (October 14, 2016) Report Links: The Pound Falls To The Conquering Dollar - October 14, 2016 The Dollar: The Great Redistributor - October 7, 2016 Long-Term FX Valuation Models: Updates And New Coverages - September 30, 2016 Australian Dollar Chart II-9AUD Technicals 1 Chart II-10AUD Technicals 2 Policy Commentary: "We have never thought of our job as keeping the year-ended rate of inflation between 2 and 3 percent at all times...Given the uncertainties in the world, something more prescriptive and mechanical is neither possible nor desirable" - RBA Governor Philip Lowe (October 17, 2016) Report Links: The Pound Falls To The Conquering Dollar - October 14, 2016 Long-Term FX Valuation Models: Updates And New Coverages - September 30, 2016 Global Perspective On Currencies: A PCA Approach For The FX Market - September 16, 2016 New Zealand Dollar Chart II-11NZD Technicals 1 Chart II-12NZD Technicals 2 Policy Commentary: "There are several reasons for low inflation - both here and abroad. In New Zealand, tradable inflation, which accounts for almost half of the CPI regimen, has been negative for the past four years. Much of the weakness in inflation can be attributed to global developments that have been reflected in the high New Zealand dollar and low inflation in our import prices" - RBNZ Assistant Governor John McDermott (October 11, 2016) Report Links: Long-Term FX Valuation Models: Updates And New Coverages - September 30, 2016 Global Perspective On Currencies: A PCA Approach For The FX Market - September 16, 2016 The Fed is Trapped Under Ice - September 9, 2016 Canadian Dollar Chart II-13CAD Technicals 1 Chart II-14CAD Technicals 2 Policy Commentary: "Given the downgrade to our outlook, Governing Council actively discussed the possibility of adding more monetary stimulus at this time, in order to speed up the return of the economy to full capacity" - BoC Governor Stephen Poloz (October 19, 2016) Report Links: The Pound Falls To The Conquering Dollar - October 14, 2016 The Dollar: The Great Redistributor - October 7, 2016 Long-Term FX Valuation Models: Updates And New Coverages - September 30, 2016 Swiss Franc Chart II-15CHF Technicals 1 Chart II-16CHF Technicals 2 Policy Commentary: "[On the effects of low interest rates on the housing market]...If you look at the recent past, the dynamics have been a bit more reassuring...[still]let's not forget, this disequilibrium that we have achieved remains very high" - SNB Vice-President Fritz Zurbruegg (October 12, 2016) Report Links: Long-Term FX Valuation Models: Updates And New Coverages - September 30, 2016 Global Perspective On Currencies: A PCA Approach For The FX Market - September 16, 2016 Clashing Forces - July 29, 2016 Norwegian Krone Chart II-17NOK Technicals 1 Chart II-18NOK Technicals 2 Policy Commentary: "A period of low interest rates can engender financial imbalances. The risk that growth in property prices and debt will become unsustainably high over time is increasing. With high debt ratios, households are more vulnerable to cyclical downturns" - Norges Bank Governor Oystein Olsen (October 11, 2016) Report Links: The Pound Falls To The Conquering Dollar - October 14, 2016 The Dollar: The Great Redistributor - October 7, 2016 Long-Term FX Valuation Models: Updates And New Coverages - September 30, 2016 Swedish Krona Chart II-19SEK Technicals 1 Chart II-20SEK Technicals 2 Policy Commentary: "[On Sweden's financial stability]...it remains an issue because we are mismanaging out housing market. Our housing market isn't under control in my view" - Riksbank Governor Stefan Ingves (October 27, 2016) Report Links: The Pound Falls To The Conquering Dollar - October 14, 2016 Long-Term FX Valuation Models: Updates And New Coverages - September 30, 2016 Dazed And Confused - July 1, 2016 Trades & Forecasts Forecast Summary Core Portfolio Tactical Trades Closed Trades