Financial Markets

Investors are still cautious and have significant cash that needs to be put to work. Trickle-down of it into the US equity market may extend the rally. Overly bearish futures positioning is also a strong contrarian indicator. Disinflation is good for real earnings growth, and imminent earnings rebound may add support for equities.

As the S&P 500 nears our 4,500 target, we review the rationale behind the call to assess its merit.

We are overweight Private Credit. Improvements in yield, negotiating leverage, and structuring upside are major tailwinds over the coming years. The business cycle provides an attractive backdrop for all Private Credit sub-asset classes. In this Special Report we examine Private Credit as a whole, but with more emphasis on the income-focused sub-categories of Senior and Mezzanine Debt.

As the major central banks once again mull their policy options, they face a daunting task. They must phase-transition inflation back to imperceptible, without phase-transitioning unemployment to perceptible. This report explains why this will prove impossible, and what central banks will likely prioritise. Plus: the collapsed complexity of the recent stock market rally signals excessive trend-following. Until the complexity normalises, we are reluctant to chase the rally.

Policymakers will likely continue to stimulate domestic demand via targeted measures and piecemeal stimulus. Yet, the economy will disappoint unless Beijing provides “irrigation-style” stimulus. The latter is not our base case scenario.

Policymakers will likely continue to stimulate domestic demand via targeted measures and piecemeal stimulus. Yet, the economy will disappoint unless Beijing provides “irrigation-style” stimulus. The latter is not our base case scenario.

Policymakers will likely continue to stimulate domestic demand via targeted measures and piecemeal stimulus. Yet, the economy will disappoint unless Beijing provides “irrigation-style” stimulus. The latter is not our base case scenario.