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Fixed Income

The Fed And Tariffs
Trade tensions muddy the outlook for global central banks. The 2010s were an era of low growth and low inflation that called for easy monetary policy. The post-COVID era has been marked by overheating and high inflation calling for tight policy. The second…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Argentina: Is The Hype Real?
Special Report

Argentina is entering a regime shift from the traditional short boom-bust cycles of the past 50 years. Profound structural reforms will result in a productivity boom, leading to a more durable economic expansion while keeping with the disinflation trend. Authorities will likely lift capital and currency controls in the second quarter of this year. All in all, odds are that Argentinian assets have entered a multi-year bull market.

Emerging Markets Strategy, GeoMacro Strategy by Juan Egana
Do Growth Stocks Even Care About Macro?
Our Chart Of The Week comes from Arthur Budaghyan, Chief Strategist of our Emerging Markets and China Investment Strategy services. Arthur highlights an important dichotomy in the US stock-bond yield correlation. In the past 12 months, US growth stocks…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
US Economic Roundup

Core PCE inflation came in soft this morning and is tracking well below the Fed’s 2025 forecast. We highlight three upside risks to inflation and preview next week’s employment report.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
2025 Global Inflation Outlook: Opportunities In Inflation-Linked Bonds
Our Global Fixed Income strategists assessed the risk of a second wave of inflation, and discussed the opportunities within the inflation-linked bond (ILB) market. Global disinflation remains on track, though energy prices and tariffs pose upside risks.…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
The Fed Enters Wait-And-See Mode
The Federal Reserve kept rates on hold in its 4.25%-to-4.5% range, as expected. The main change in the statement was the removal of the reference to progress towards the Fed’s 2% target, leaving instead a simple mention that inflation “remains somewhat…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Bank of Canada: Stuck The Landing, Now Weighing Impacts Of Trade War
The Bank of Canada cut by 25 bps to 3% as expected, and announced the end of quantitative tightening. This sixth consecutive cut brings the policy rate further into neutral territory, estimated to be in the 2.25%-to-3.25% range.  The BoC assessed…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Don’t Put The Monetary Cart Before The Fiscal Horse

Jay Powell didn’t say much at this afternoon’s FOMC press conference, and monetary policy will continue to take a back seat to fiscal for the next few months.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Anatomy Of A One-Day Selloff
Monday’s selloff was orderly and concentrated in the tech sector. The price action was a classic risk-off response, where both stock prices and bond yields decreased. While the VIX increased, the equity spot-vol beta, volatility’s sensitivity to spot price…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
US Consumer Confidence Cools Along With Labor Market
The January Conference Board Consumer Confidence index missed estimates, decreasing to 104.1 from an upwardly-revised 109.5 in December. The decrease was driven by both the present situation and expectations subcomponents. The labor differential, the…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier

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