Fixed Income
UK inflation surprised to the downside in December. Headline inflation retreated below estimates to 2.5% y/y from an eight-month high of 2.6% in November. Core inflation also decreased below estimates, printing 3.2% vs. 3.5% in November. Services inflation,…
The December US CPI came in better than expected. While headline CPI met estimates of 0.4% m/m (2.9% y/y), core surprised to the downside at 0.2% m/m, decelerating to 3.2% y/y from 3.3%. Moderation in core annual inflation was driven by both goods, which are…
Today, we publish our Quarterly Model Bond Portfolio report. We review the performance of the portfolio in 2024 and discuss how to best position a global fixed income portfolio following the sharp rise in yields during the last months.
The December NFIB Small Business Optimism Index beat expectations, jumping to 105.1 from 101.7 in November. Most index subcomponents increased, led by measure of expectations, notably for the state of the economy and real sales. After jumping 39 percentage…
China’s monetary and credit data was relatively strong. New yuan loans increased more than expected, as did aggregate financing. M2 met estimates at 7.3% y/y. As was the case for trade in December, seasonality plays a big role in China around the…
China’s December trade data was positive, with exports in USD terms rebounding to 10.7% y/y from 6.7% in November, and imports rebounding to 1.0% from -3.9%. Taken at face value, the numbers are positive for both the Chinese and global economies. However, our…
The preliminary January University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index missed estimates on Friday, driven by a cooling of consumer expectations. Worryingly, both the 1-year and 5-to-10 year inflation expectations ticked up to 3.3% from 2.8% and 3.0%,…
Our European Investment strategists looked at the developed markets bond selloff from a European perspective, focusing on Euro area and UK government bonds and currencies. The recent selloff in European bonds is driven primarily by surging US yields,…
UK and German bonds are victims of the global bond market riots. Will European yields continue to move higher and will the euro and the pound find a floor anytime soon?
Thoughts on the increase in bond yields and this morning’s employment data.