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A User's Guide To GeoMacro
GeoMacro’s monthly Beta Report will typically perform deep dives into the most pressing macro topics of the moment. For its debut, however, it turns the microscope on its own process, explaining the team’s framework and how investors can best incorporate its…
Daily Insights
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Implications Of Shrinking Dollar Liquidity

US dollar liquidity has been shrinking, which has important ramifications for global asset prices, including currencies. In this report, we delve into the process of dollar liquidity creation and the outlook for currencies over the next six-to-twelve months.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
When Will Bad News Be Bad News?
After having peaked in mid-April, Citigroup’s global economic surprise index has been in negative territory for the past few weeks. The sub-zero reading indicates that economic data have been surprising to the downside and signals deteriorating economic…
Daily Insights
What Does The Macro Environment Look Like Ahead Of A Recession?
An investor looking at the low unemployment rate and elevated job vacancy rate could reasonably conclude that the US expansion will continue. However history suggests that recessions often start seemingly out of the blue. Solid growth in the fourth quarter…
Daily Insights
Copper Bulls Have Gotten Ahead Of Themselves
Copper has experienced a roller-coaster ride so far this year, with front-month futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange gaining nearly 40% from early February to late May, tumbling nearly 15% in just over five weeks, and bouncing around 7% over the last…
Daily Insights
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The Outlook For Inflation
Special Report

We consider the outlook for CPI inflation over the next 12 months. Our baseline forecast calls for core CPI to hit 2.40% during this timeframe and for headline CPI to fall between 1.74% and 2.49%.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Global PMIs Reveal International Trade Flows Deteriorated In June
The stabilization in global growth continued in June. The JPM Global Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.9, nearly in line with May’s 22-month high. However, international trade flows deteriorated notably. The new export orders component started contracting in…
Daily Insights
Introducing GeoMacro Strategy: The Search For Geopolitical Beta
BCA Research’s newly launched GeoMacro Strategy service presents the User’s Manual in its inaugural report navigating the differences between Geopolitical alpha and beta. What is the difference between geopolitical alpha and beta?…
Daily Insights
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US Unemployment: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly

We explain how to distinguish between ‘good’, ‘bad’ and ‘ugly’ unemployment, why bad unemployment is a much better gauge of the jobs market than headline unemployment, and what this means for the tactical positioning in bonds and stocks. Plus: base metals (XBM) have already sold off sharply, so take profits in the short position and open a tactical overweight in global materials (MXI).

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
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Copper And The Energy Transition: A Premature Bet
Special Report

The green energy transition will drive a surge in copper demand over a long-term horizon. However, a better entry point to get long will emerge after the next economic downturn begins.

Commodity & Energy Strategy, China Investment Strategy by Roukaya Ibrahim, Qingyun Xu, Ashwin Shyam

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