US Dollar

Disinflation coupled with sticky wage growth is likely to result in either a second wave of inflation or layoffs and a recession. In the meantime, market expectations for sales, growth, and margins are overly optimistic and are inconsistent with macroeconomic headwinds. We recommend gradually realigning the portfolio to a more defensive stance.

This report examines if investors should worry about a balance of payments crisis in the next 3-to-6 months.

The SEC has just approved bitcoin spot ETFs, but does bitcoin have any ‘intrinsic’ value? In this Special Report we explain why the answer is yes, how bitcoin compares with gold, and why the bitcoin price could ultimately head well north of $100,000.

In light of the hotter-than-expected US CPI report, we look at what interest rate currency investors should focus on. Our conclusion largely keeps our existing trades in place, as published in our outlook, a few weeks ago.

The market’s pricing of a soft landing means that geopolitical risks are becoming more, not less, relevant in 2024. US domestic divisions will invite challenges as foreign powers rightly fear that US policy will turn more hawkish after the election.

The market is excited by the idea that the Fed will cut rates early this year, even without a recession. But is that likely, with inflation still set to be around 2.8% mid-year?

A post-mortem of our trades for the year, and also comments on future yen and sterling moves from the recent BoJ meeting, and the UK inflation report.

In this week’s report, we present our dollar view for 2024 and beyond, with a few trade ideas.