The Making of the World Cup Forecast

Since 2018, we’ve published what we call “The Most Important of All Unimportant Forecasts” – applying the same macro framework we use for markets and the global economy to predict the World Cup. Now, what started as a one-off idea has become a tradition.

We hosted a webcast to walk through the making of the report – how the model has evolved, how we combine quantitative analysis with macro and narrative insights, and why football turns out to be a surprisingly good lens for top-down thinking.

We also shared our final tournament prediction – and attendees will hear it first.

What we covered:
•How the report started – and how it’s improved each cycle
•The blend of data, narrative, and macro behind the model
•Why football lends itself to a top-down framework
•Our final 2026 World Cup call (revealed live)