Global semiconductor stocks have returned 50% YTD in USD terms, and a whopping 200% since their September 2022 lows. However, they may have peaked back in July. Our Emerging Market strategists highlight a significant…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for September 2024.
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy Service, China has been accumulating high-value memory semiconductors in anticipation of further US restrictions. Since October 2022, the US has been tightening rules…
Both leading PMI measures painted a sluggish picture of China’s economic conditions in August. The NBS composite PMI suggested that overall activity barely expanded (50.1) and that the manufacturing sector’s…
According to BCA Research’s GeoMacro Strategy service, there are two main pressure points that the US can utilize against China. First, the US consumer market is the largest in the world. Despite having diversified away…
The ongoing rally in ASEAN currencies will fizzle sooner rather than later as they are not supported by fundamentals. The ringgit and the baht, however, will fare better than the peso and the rupiah during the coming global risk-off…
Even after the Fed cuts rates, policy will remain restrictive for some time. Moreover, in history, stocks have tended to fall around the first rate cut. We remain cautious on the outlook for the economy and risk assets.
Chinese onshore and offshore bank stocks have outperformed their respective broad markets by 26% and 24% since October. Despite deteriorating return on assets, return on equity and net interest margins, investors have sought out…
China has notably diversified its export markets over the past two decades, reducing its dependence on the US and other DM economies and strengthening trade ties with EM nations. Since 2000, shipments to the US have halved (…
The Asian currency index (ADXY index) rose nearly 3% from its late-July lows. While CNY/USD accounted for a large share of these gains, an equal-weighted basket of non-CNY Asian currencies surged by an even larger margin (5%)…