According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, it is an overstatement to assert that China’s subsidies are the main driver of its green energy industries’ competitiveness. It is commonly…
The redeployment of pandemic-era excess savings has been a significant driver of US consumption growth and helped the economy avoid a recession last year. Although pandemic-era fiscal support was less generous in China,…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, Modi’s loss of a majority government reduces the odds for more reforms, but does not change the structural outlook. Modi comes out of the election with…
China’s exports in USD terms surged 7.6% y/y in May, from 1.5% in April, surpassing expectations of a 5.7% gain. However, base effects largely overstate the strength of Chinese exports given that they contracted by 8% y/…
Prime Minister Narendra Modi won a third term and will become the third longest-serving prime minister of India. While investors responded negatively to the BJP’s loss of an outright majority, Modi and the NDA will continue to…
The Caixin Chinese manufacturing PMI reached a two-year high in May, expanding at a larger-than-expected rate from 51.4 to 51.7. The Caixin figure thus contrasts with the alternative NBS manufacturing PMI, which unexpectedly…
The US economy is in the “Overheating” phase, so stronger growth brings higher inflation. Tight monetary policy means recession is still likely over the next 12 months. Stay defensive.
In this report, we gauge the outlook for the dollar given client visits in Africa.