Chinese PMIs from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) disappointed in May. The manufacturing PMI contracted in May (49.5), breaking a two-month expansion streak and disappointing expectations of continued growth. Meanwhile…
As in many other countries, China’s cyclical consumption growth is primarily driven by labor market conditions, income, and borrowing. BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service maintains the view that these…
In Section I, we argue that global investors have been lulled into a false sense of security concerning the resiliency of the US economy. Tight monetary policy means that something must change for a recession to be avoided, and…
The large buildup in Chinese households’ savings deposits is unlikely to fuel consumption. Poor outlooks on labor market conditions, income, and households’ unwillingness to borrow will hinder consumption through the rest of 2024.
Chinese industrial profits rose by 4.0% y/y in April, from a 3.5% y/y contraction in March. They grew by 4.3% in the first four months of the year, compared to the same period in 2023. In March, the central government pledged…
The RMB 500 billion program is small, as it is equivalent to only 4% of property developers' total funding from the past 12 months. This will preclude a recovery in property construction this year. Corporate profits will determine…
Industrial metals have outperformed the broad commodity complex this year and raced above the broad commodity complex even more meaningfully since the beginning of April. Our Commodity and Energy strategists have highlighted…
Several economic releases out of China disappointed in April. Retail sales decelerated from 3.1% y/y to 2.3% y/y and fixed asset investment growth slowed from 4.5% YTD y/y to 4.2% YTD y/y. Both were expected to accelerate.…
ASEAN stocks and currencies will weaken further as these economies face multiple headwinds. Raising policy rates did not stop a sliding currency in the past, it is unlikely to do so now.