Highlights Chart 1European Policy Uncertainty Down Macron remains on target to win the French election, but Italy looms as a risk ahead; Fade any relief rally after South Korean elections; Russia is not a major source of…
Highlights ECB: The ECB is still on track to move to a less accommodative policy stance over the next year. Hints of this will be given at the June policy meeting, while a 2018 asset purchase taper announcement will be made at the…
Highlights Chart 1Rate Hikes Lagging Wage Growth Last Friday's GDP report showed that the U.S. economy grew a meagre 0.7% (annualized) in the first quarter of 2017, well below levels necessary to sustain an uptrend in…
GAA DM Equity Country Allocation Model Update The GAA DM Equity Country Allocation model is updated as of April 30, 2017. The model has increased its allocation to Spain at the expenses of Germany largely driven by changes in the value…
Feature Table 1Recommended Allocation Don't Worry About The Tepid Data Risk assets are likely to continue to grind higher. Two of the catalysts we cited for this in our most recent Quarterly1 have half happened: European…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Upgrade the financials sector to overweight. This year's consolidation phase is drawing to a close as inflation expectations stabilize. Lift the S&P banks index to overweight. Leading indicators…
Dear Client, In addition to this abbreviated Weekly Report, I sent you a Special Report earlier today written by my colleague Mark McClellan of our monthly Bank Credit Analyst publication. Following up on many of the themes discussed in…
Highlights Financial markets have returned to 'risk on' in late April, after becoming overly gloomy on the growth, political and policy outlooks in recent months. There are also some worrying signs in our global forward-…
Highlights China/EM growth will decouple (to the downside) from the business cycle in developed markets (DM). Continued demand strength in DM will not prevent a relapse in EM/China growth. EM is much more leveraged to China than to…
Highlights Overall Duration: The factors that have driven global bond yields lower over the past month are not sustainable. Maintain a below-benchmark duration exposure, with current yield levels looking attractive to add to…