Highlights There are a number of market signals and indicators that are denoting opening cracks in the reflation trade in general and EM risk assets in particular. EM/China narrow money (M1) growth points to relapse in their growth…

Special Report

Highlights Dusting Off The BCA Bond Model: As central bankers moving away from the hyper-easy monetary policies of the post-crisis era, reverting back to more traditional bond investing tools, like our BCA Bond Model - which focuses on…

Highlights Chart 1Is Inflation Heating Up?  In past reports we have argued that as long as inflation (and inflation expectations) are below the Fed's target, then the "reflation trade" will remain in vogue. In other…

Highlights Recommended Allocation  The sweet spot of non-inflationary accelerating growth is likely to continue. European politics will fade as a risk, and Trump should still be able to get tax cuts through. We continue to be…

GAA DM Equity Country Allocation Model Update The GAA DM Equity Country Allocation model is updated as of March 31, 2017. The model has not made significant changes compared to previous month as shown in Table 1. As shown in Table 2…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy A window has opened up for utilities outperformance. Upgrade to overweight on a short-term (1-3 month) view. Leading indicators of beverage sales have improved, heralding an upgrading in depressed…

Highlights The locomotive of the U.S. economy, the consumer, remains supported by powerful tailwinds. The Fed will be able to tighten monetary policy relative to other central banks by a higher degree than the market appreciates. The…

Highlights Economic Outlook: The global economy is in a reflationary window that will stay open until mid-2018. Growth will then slow, culminating in a recession in 2019. While the recession is likely to be mild, the policy response…

Highlights Animal spirits have soared, according to soft data from surveys. But 6-month credit impulses have slumped in the euro area, U.S. and China, according to hard data from the ECB, Federal Reserve and PBOC. The negative 6-…

Highlights Renewed deflationary pressures indicate that the Hong Kong dollar may have once again become expensive. The currency peg will stay and domestic prices will adjust as a release valve. Developing deflationary pressures and…