Asset Allocation
Global financial markets relapsed in August. After a relatively strong performance in June and July, most of the major financial assets we track generated below average returns last month as investors shifted their focus to the risk of a “no landing” scenario…
Stocks should continue to rally in the near term, but investors should prepare to turn more defensive towards the end of the year in advance of a recession in 2024.
In a recent report, BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service updated its long-term return assumptions for a wide range of public and private assets. While still lower than the historical returns, the team’s projected returns are slightly higher than…
A global portfolio is likely to return only 5.3% a year over the next decade, compared to 6.7% in the past. Investors either need to lower their return expectations, or take more risk. Our total return methodology remains consistent with previous editions, with changes limited to the Alternatives section.
Nvidia’s stock price hit a fresh all-time high on Thursday after its blockbuster Q2 earnings call. The company reported it generated $13.51 billion in revenue last month (above expectations of $11.2 billion) and forecasted an increase to $16 billion in Q3…
In part 2 of this series, we discuss mainstream EM equity valuations and present the results of our cross-country analysis. The goal is to identify overweights and underweights within an EM equity portfolio.
Yesterday we highlighted that the August update of the Philly Fed’s Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook survey sent a negative signal, with the New Orders, Sales, and Employment components all deteriorating. On Wednesday, the flash estimate of the US services…
The above chart illustrates the BCA Market-Based China Growth Indicator, which is made up of 17 series grouped into four asset class subcomponents: currencies, commodities, equities, and rates/fixed-income. The purpose of the indicator is to act as a broad…
The rise in bond yields over the past few weeks has made some investors wonder whether US Treasurys and other government bonds really are a good hedge against recession. Could there be an environment in which the economy goes into recession but bond yields…
During the last economic expansion, a structurally overweight allocation to stocks was at least partially warranted by the idea that “There Is No Alternative” – or “T.I.N.A.” During the last expansion, very accommodative monetary policy significantly reduced…