Highlights Most currency pairs continue to trade toward the apex of tight wedge formations. History suggests major breakouts could be imminent. While the trade-weighted dollar has historically tended to be the best performing…
Highlights Chart 1What’s The Downside? How low can it go? This is the question most investors are asking these days about the 10-year Treasury yield. Our answer is that it can’t go much lower unless the U.S. economy falls…
Feature GAA DM Equity Country Allocation Model Update The GAA DM Equity Country Allocation model is updated as of March 29, 2019. The quant model has not made changes in the direction of underweights and overweights compared to last…
Highlights U.S. growth remains robust, despite some temporary softness in recent months. Ex U.S., growth continues to fall but, with China probably now ramping up monetary stimulus, should bottom in the second half. Central banks…
Highlights Global equities and other risk assets will trade sideways with elevated volatility over the coming weeks before grinding higher for the remainder of the year, as global growth finally accelerates after a series of false…
Highlights For the Eurostoxx50 to outperform the S&P500, the big euro area banks have to outperform the big U.S. tech stocks. Tactically overweight Eurostoxx50 versus S&P500 as well as other pro-cyclical positions such as…
Highlights Driven by its fear that deflation is a more intractable danger than inflation, the Federal Reserve has enshrined its pause for the remainder of 2019 in order to lift inflation expectations. Since the U.S. business cycle…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy As growth becomes scarce, investors flock to sectors that are slated to outgrow the broad market and shy away from the ones that are forecast to trail the SPX’s growth rate. This week we rank…
Highlights Analysis on South Africa is published below. The “EM” label does not guarantee a secular bull market. None of the individual EM bourses has outperformed DM on a consistent basis over the past 40 years. EM…
Highlights Dovish Central Banks & Duration: Bond markets have shifted rapidly in recent weeks, pricing out any and all rate hikes expected over the next year in the major developed economies. With global growth likely to rebound in…