Highlights Investors are too complacent about the risks of a trade war. Standard economic models understate the potential economic damage that a trade war could cause. Global equities would suffer mightily from a trade war. Deep…
Dear Client, Geopolitical analysis is a fundamental part of the investment process. My colleague, and BCA's Chief Geopolitical Strategist, Marko Papic will introduce a one-day specialized course - Geopolitics & Investing - to…
Highlights Domino dynamics continue escalating within the EM universe confirming that a major bear market is underway. Several global cyclical market segments have recently experienced technical breakdowns. This confirms that global…
The GAA DM Equity Country Allocation model is updated as of June 29, 2018. The model has reduced weights in Italy, the U.S., the Netherlands and France to beef up weights in Spain, Australia, Canada, Switzerland and Germany. After these…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Five key drivers - late cycle dynamics, likelihood of pricing power regulatory relief, the rising U.S. dollar, firming operating metrics and investor and analyst capitulation- all suggest that it no…
Recommended Allocation Risks to equities and credit are now evenly balanced. We downgrade both to neutral. We are worried that desynchronized growth will further push up the dollar, damaging emerging markets, especially since U.…
Highlights May's soft durable goods orders report is probably not a precursor of weaker capex. Despite shortages of inventory and rising rates, housing should add to GDP growth this year and next, and keep economic growth well…
Highlights Growing trade tensions are exacerbating risks created by a decline in global liquidity. A weaker CNY will only increase pressures on the dollar. China is in fact likely to try to push the CNY lower, as it is a useful tool…
Highlights Macro Outlook: Global growth is decelerating and the composition of that growth is shifting back towards the United States. Policy backdrop: The specter of trade wars represents a real and immediate threat to risk assets.…