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BCA Indicators/Model

EUR/USD: Potential For Some Near-Term Upside
The Eurozone's October inflation release confirmed the signal from the German and Spanish reports that price pressures are moderating. CPI inflation softened from 4.3% y/y to 2.9% y/y (below expectations of 3.1% y/y) while the monthly rate of change eased to…
Daily Insights
New Data From The Survey Of Consumer Finances
The Fed’s latest triennial Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF), spanning the period from 2019 to 2022, was released on October 18th. It augments the Distributional Financial Accounts' (DFA) depiction of the distribution of household wealth and income. According…
Daily Insights
Consumer Discretionary Underperforms Despite Resilient Consumption
Recent US data reveals that consumer spending has been extremely robust in the US (see The Numbers). Personal consumption expanded by 4.0% q/q annualized in Q3, helping lift aggregate economic growth. Nevertheless, Consumer Discretionary is the second worst…
Daily Insights
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BCA Global Central Bank Monitors: Applications To Fixed Income & FX Investing

In this Special Report, we introduce two strategies that use our Central Bank Monitors for global fixed income country allocations and currency trades. We find that using the Monitors in country selection helps improve the performance of a developed markets government bond portfolio. The CBMs can also help substantially minimize the drawdowns on a standard FX carry strategy.

Global Fixed Income Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Robert Timper, Deborah Acri, Artem Sakhbiev
Using Equity Analyzer To Navigate The Middle East Conflict
In a recent report, BCA Research’s Equity Analyzer service proposes two strategies to help investors navigate the conflict in the Middle East. The  first strategy uses the “Macro Sensitivities” filter on the platform to create a market diversified…
Daily Insights
A Bottom-Up Approach To Country Selection
A powerful feature of the Equity Analyzer platform is its breadth of coverage: roughly 13 thousand stocks trading on MSCI Developed Market exchanges. Since we have a cross-section of the same stock level data across multiple regions, we can aggregate this…
Daily Insights
Recession Indicators Are Still Sending A Warning
The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index's 0.7% m/m decline in September sent a weaker-than-anticipated signal about the outlook for the US economy. It fell below anticipations that the pace of decline would remain unchanged at -0.4% m/m and marks the…
Daily Insights
US Beige Book: Stable Or Slightly Weaker Growth Outlook
Stronger-than-anticipated retail sales and nonfarm payroll employment in September indicate that conditions are still favorable for US consumers. Similarly, the latest reading from the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model stands at 5.4% for Q3 – well above estimates of…
Daily Insights
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GFIS Model Bond Portfolio Q3/2023 Review & Q4 Outlook: How To Win During "Higher For Longer"

In this report, we present the quarterly review of the Global Fixed Income Strategy Model Bond Portfolio. The portfolio remains positioned for slower global growth momentum over the next 6-12 months, favoring government bonds over corporate debt. The portfolio also favors government bonds in countries flirting with recession where policy rates are too high (core Europe & the UK).

Global Fixed Income Strategy
Singapore NODX: The Contraction Eases
Singapore is a small open economy that is highly sensitive to fluctuations in global and Asian economic activity. This characteristic makes its exports a good bellwether for global growth. On this front, the upside surprise in Singapore's non-oil domestic…
Daily Insights

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