The Fed’s tone has taken a decidedly dovish turn during the past week and, despite September’s hot CPI print, there is mounting evidence that a period of disinflation is coming. This makes the case for a pause in the Fed’s tightening…
Our preferred tactical global fixed income trades for the rest of 2022 into early 2023 are all expressions of our views on relative monetary policy shifts within the main developed market economies. These involve bets on a…
We continue to anticipate that the Fed won’t pause its tightening cycle until Q1 or Q2 of 2023, and current labor market trends certainly give no indication that a Fed pause (or “pivot”) is imminent.
In this report, we assess that sterling likely bottomed below 1.04. We expect volatility in the currency to remain in place but are buyers below current levels. On balance, there is a tug of war between irresponsible fiscal policy…
Russia’s conflict with the West will escalate and trigger more bad news for risky assets this fall. Beyond that, stalemate looms. Latin American equities present a potential opportunity once the macro and geopolitical backdrop…
This week, we present our quarterly review of the BCA Research Global Fixed Income Strategy (GFIS) model bond portfolio for Q3/2022. We also discuss the model portfolio’s expected performance over next 3-6 months after our recent…
Executive Summary Higher Brent Prices, Stronger Upside Bias The Fed is pacing a globally synchronized monetary-policy tightening cycle as the war in Ukraine escalates, following Russia’s mobilization of 300k reserve…
Executive Summary There’s Value In TIPS A survey of economic and financial market indicators suggests that we are not yet close to the end of the Fed’s tightening cycle. This argues for a continued flattening of the…
Highlights The odds of a Goldilocks outcome for the US economy increased somewhat in August, but the risks of a US recession over the coming year remain quite elevated. We continue to recommend that investors stay neutrally positioned…
Executive Summary Upgrade Euro Area ILBs To Overweight Inflation breakevens have stabilized in the US, where gasoline prices have fallen, but have reaccelerated in the UK and euro area, where natural gas prices have…