Business Cycles
US speculative-grade corporate bond (junk) spreads rose significantly last year in response to a sharp increase in US interest rates and widespread concerns about a US recession. Junk spreads have since come in from their mid-2022 peak, and now trade below…
BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service concludes that the failure of EM stocks, Asian currencies and commodities to stage a broad-based outperformance is consistent with their macro thesis that global trade/manufacturing – the main driver of EM –…
In this report, we dissect which markets have broken out and which ones have not, and reflect what this entails for our global macro view. Also, we analyze how the S&P 500 has been taking its cues from a change in the inflation trend. Yet, inflation dynamics are complex, and a falling inflation rate does not mean that the inflation menace has been eliminated.
US retail sales delivered a mixed signal on Tuesday. On the one hand, overall retail sales growth decelerated from 0.5% m/m to 0.2% m/m in June– disappointing expectations of 0.5% m/m. Spending on retail sales excluding the volatile auto and gas retailers…
Canada’s CPI release showed headline CPI inflation cooled from 3.4% y/y to 2.8% in June – below estimates calling for a less pronounced moderation to 3.0% y/y. This marks inflation’s first return to the Bank of Canada’s 1%-3% percent inflation target range…
Results of the NAHB survey shows US homebuilder sentiment inched further above 50 to a 13-month high of 56 in July. Its ongoing rise above 50 indicates that net sentiment is becoming increasingly favorable. That said, homebuilders pared back some optimism…
After US inflation slowed down markedly, EUR/USD broke out to 1.12, which constitutes a 16-month high. The euro is benefiting from the market expectation that the Fed will soon be done with its hikes while the ECB’s monetary tightening campaign remains more…
According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service the risk-reward from overweighting equities and underweighting fixed income is far less appealing than it was toward the end of last year. Now that the mood is brightening, growth expectations are…
On the surface, the latest batch of Chinese economic data released on Monday shows a deterioration in consumer spending with retail sales growth slowing sharply from 12.7% y/y to 3.1% y/y in June – slightly below consensus estimates of 3.3% y/y. In addition,…
Singapore’s trade data continue to send a pessimistic signal about global manufacturing conditions. The year-over-year contraction in non-oil domestic exports (NODX) deepened to -15.5% y/y in June from -14.8% y/y – marking the ninth consecutive month of…