Results of the NAHB survey shows US homebuilder sentiment inched further above 50 to a 13-month high of 56 in July. Its ongoing rise above 50 indicates that net sentiment is becoming increasingly favorable. That said,…
After US inflation slowed down markedly, EUR/USD broke out to 1.12, which constitutes a 16-month high. The euro is benefiting from the market expectation that the Fed will soon be done with its hikes while the ECB’s…
According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service the risk-reward from overweighting equities and underweighting fixed income is far less appealing than it was toward the end of last year. Now that the mood is…
On the surface, the latest batch of Chinese economic data released on Monday shows a deterioration in consumer spending with retail sales growth slowing sharply from 12.7% y/y to 3.1% y/y in June – slightly below consensus…
Singapore’s trade data continue to send a pessimistic signal about global manufacturing conditions. The year-over-year contraction in non-oil domestic exports (NODX) deepened to -15.5% y/y in June from -14.8% y/y –…
In the first five months of the year, optimism about GAI (generative AI) drove a narrow rally in US equities. The three sectors that contain companies that are most exposed to this dynamic were the only ones that experienced…
China’s slowdown confirms BCA’s Geopolitical Strategists’ view that persisting structural challenges would cause China’s economic reopening to disappoint (see The Numbers). In this context, Canada and…
Copper rallied to a two-month high by the end of last week. Importantly, this move did not occur in isolation. It coincides with greater optimism about the prospects of a soft landing. Indeed, the US economic surprise index is…
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, stocks fare best when there is plenty of slack in the economy and growth is strong and getting stronger. In classical physics, the trajectory of an object…
China’s June export data sent a negative signal about global manufacturing conditions. The -12.4% y/y drop in the dollar value of Chinese exports fell below expectations of a -10% y/y decline, registering the steepest…