Trade data from small open economies act as a bellwether for global growth developments. In August, Korean exports expanded by 11.4% y/y in USD and 5.7% y/y in KRW terms, marking their eleventh and eighth consecutive month of…

  Investors are pricing in a soft landing in the US. Notably, we noted that pro-cyclical assets topped the performance ranking in August. At the same time, the S&P 500 is currently trading only 1% below its all-time highs.…

  Subdued demand for credit among Chinese private-sector businesses and households persisted through August. Outstanding loan growth decelerated from 8.7% y/y to 8.5%. Moreover, M1’s contraction deepened, from 6.6% to 7.…

  We noted earlier this month that the Fed would be unlikely to deliver a jumbo rate cut without telegraphing it first. President Williams' and Governor Waller’s September 6 speeches offered policymakers one last chance…

  Preliminary estimates suggest that consumer sentiment improved in September. The headline University of Michigan consumer sentiment index increased from 67.9 to a higher-than-projected 68.5. Both the current conditions and…

  According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, the imbalances in the US economy are sizeable enough to generate a mild recession. Unfortunately for equity investors, a mild recession would not preclude a…

 

  Continued deterioration in labor demand underpins our expectation for a US recession, as it will lead to slower compensation growth, hobbling consumption spending’s main driver. We also previously highlighted that the…

  ECB Governing Council members unanimously voted in favor of lowering the deposit facility rate by 25 bps to 3.50% in September, marking the second cut this year. Moreover, expectations for weaker domestic demand led the ECB to…

 As an industrial metal, copper acts as a barometer of economic activity. Silver and gold are safe-haven assets with inflation-hedging properties, though silver is relatively more sensitive to global growth developments given that…