Business Cycles
Tokyo’s CPI is a timely leading indicator of nationwide price pressures. In August, the headline, core (ex-food) and the “core core” (ex-food and energy) measures all accelerated by larger-than-expected margins, reaching 2.6%, 2.4% and 1.6% y/y, respectively.…
This Insight looks at potential dollar moves in the next six-to-twelve months.
US GDP was unexpectedly revised higher to 3.0% q/q annualized in Q2, from 2.8% previously estimated. A significant upward revision to consumer spending (2.9% from 2.3% against expectations of a downward revision) largely offset weaker growth in other…
China has notably diversified its export markets over the past two decades, reducing its dependence on the US and other DM economies and strengthening trade ties with EM nations. Since 2000, shipments to the US have halved (from 30% to 16% of total…
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint Strategy service, the post-pandemic US economy has inverted from its usual ‘demand-constrained’ state to a highly unusual ‘supply-constrained’ state. This inversion is still a ways from normalizing, with labor demand…
Australia’s CPI inflation eased from 3.8% y/y to a higher-than-expected 3.5% in July. The trimmed-mean measure eased from 4.1% to 3.8%. However, the Commonwealth Energy Bill Relief Fund rebates contributed to July’s easing in price pressures. The…
US housing market data have been mixed. In June, the FHFA House Price index unexpectedly declined 0.1% m/m and the NAHB housing market index unexpectedly eased to 39 from a 41 reading. In July, starts and permits both disappointed, contracting 6.8% and 4.0%…
Last week, economists polled by Bloomberg revised their consensus 2024 US GDP forecasts upwards, from 2.3% to 2.5%. Government spending and private investment were both revised 0.3 ppts higher to 3.0% and 3.9%, respectively, while consumption growth forecasts…
The market is currently expecting the Fed to cut rates by 100 bps over the course of 2024 and by another 120 bps throughout the first eight months of 2025. However, our Global Investment strategists expect the extent of 2024 rate cuts to undershoot…
During his Jackson Hole speech, Chair Powell dispelled any remaining doubts about a September rate cut. Still, easing monetary policy is unlikely to result in a soft landing. First, recessions have historically started shortly after the Fed began cutting…