US shelter inflation has been stubbornly high for the past few years, but we finally saw a notable drop in the June CPI release. Given that shelter accounts for more than 40% of the core CPI index, the outlook for shelter…
According to BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service, the market is overestimating the odds of a soft landing. Our colleagues’ client polls have shown that 59% of respondents expect the US economy to achieve a…
GeoMacro’s monthly Beta Report will typically perform deep dives into the most pressing macro topics of the moment. For its debut, however, it turns the microscope on its own process, explaining the team’s framework…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the threat to European equities stems from growth, not French politics. After the dissolution of the French parliament on June 9th, investors sold…
The real threat to European equities is growth, not political risk. How low will Eurozone earnings fall during the coming recession and how much will equities decline in response?
Since early 2023, the Philippine peso has depreciated by 8% versus the US dollar despite the country’s central bank pushing up real policy rates by 500 basis points. BCA’s Emerging Markets Strategy argues that raising…
After having peaked in mid-April, Citigroup’s global economic surprise index has been in negative territory for the past few weeks. The sub-zero reading indicates that economic data have been surprising to the downside and…
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, investors are overstating the degree to which bond yields will rise under a Trump presidency. For one thing, the team expects the US to fall into recession…
A global economic downturn will be a headwind for natgas prices over the cyclical horizon. Thereafter, LNG capacity additions will help keep the market in balance into the end of the decade. That said, Europe’s increased dependence…
The disinflationary trend in US CPI continued in June as headline CPI dipped to 3% year-over-year, down from 3.3% in May, and core CPI declined by a tick to 3.3%. On a month-over-month basis, headline prices fell by 0.1% and core…