Business Cycles
Brent prices have fallen 6% so far in July, reversing their June gains. Interestingly, these losses are occurring despite escalating Middle East tensions and quickening Chinese industrial profit growth in June (see The Numbers), both of which are…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, a foreign shock is likely to tip the Eurozone economy into a recession because important vulnerabilities have emerged domestically. Policy is restrictive. Real interest rates stand 370bps…
Preliminary estimates suggest that US durable goods orders plummeted in June. They contracted 6.6% m/m, largely disappointing expectations of a faster pace of growth. However, a whopping 127% monthly decrease in highly volatile commercial aircrafts orders…
The US economy has clearly cooled from its above-trend pace of growth in 2023. The consensus view among BCA Research’s strategists project that this deceleration will eventually culminate in a recession by year-end or early 2025. Our US Investment…
The S&P 600 and Russell 2000 have outperformed the S&P 500 by close to 10% since July 9. Small caps typically outperform in the early stages of economic expansions when growth is accelerating, demand-driven inflation is rising and lending standards…
BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service remained tactically bullish on stocks for most of 2023, but shifted to neutral at the start of 2024, and downgraded stocks to underweight in late June. Its latest report fleshes out the team’s thinking in…
Investors should overweight US assets and de-risk their portfolios in anticipation of a major increase in policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk surrounding the US election and its global ramifications.
Way back in the 1970s and 1980s, before investment returns were assessed in relation to benchmarks and return of capital had the upper hand over return on capital, BCA researchers were invited to consider the following thought experiment: Imagine you live…
US shelter inflation has been stubbornly high for the past few years, but we finally saw a notable drop in the June CPI release. Given that shelter accounts for more than 40% of the core CPI index, the outlook for shelter inflation is critical for the overall…
According to BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service, the market is overestimating the odds of a soft landing. Our colleagues’ client polls have shown that 59% of respondents expect the US economy to achieve a soft landing; this number has been bolstered…