According to BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy service, a hard landing is the only way to solve the UK inflation problem. Sticky inflation and lingering inflation pressures have made the BoE’s job much…
The advanced estimates for US real GDP suggest that economic growth slowed meaningfully from 3.4% in Q4 2023 to 1.6% in Q1 2024 on an annualized basis, significantly below expectations of 2.5%. That said, the details of the…
Equity markets reacted negatively to the preliminary Q1 US GDP on Thursday, with the S&P 500 shedding 0.5%. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield rose 6 bps in response to the stronger-than-expected core PCE inflation print…
Results of Germany’s IFO business climate survey for April sent a positive message on Tuesday. The overall Business Climate Index increased from 87.9 to 89.4, beating expectations of 88.9. Assessments of both the current…
The resilience of the US economy has led economists to consistently revise up their consensus real GDP growth forecast for 2024, which now stands at 2.4%, up from 0.6% in July 2023. Conversely, the 2024 consensus Eurozone growth…
BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service concludes that among the CE3 currencies, the zloty and the koruna will be the relative winners, while the forint will likely be the worst performer of the three. That said,…
Q1 earnings results of the largest US banks have demonstrated that the engine of recent growth in profitability, NII, has faltered as funding costs are rising fast. However, the resurgence in non-NII thanks to a revival in corporate…
Export dynamics of small open economies are a bellwether for global growth. The latest Taiwanese and Korean export numbers are consistent with a revival in global trade. Taiwanese export orders grew by 1.2% y/y in March…
By the end of 2023, the “soft landing” scenario became the dominant narrative in financial markets. Following the regional banking scare in March of last year, market participants slowly came around to the view that…
According to BCA Research's European Investment Strategy service, European profit margins have downside because they are both elevated and procyclical. European net margins stand at 7.7% above their long-term average…