Business Cycles
Optimism about the future continues to boost investor confidence in the Euro Area. The ZEW Expectations series for the Eurozone (+10.4 to 43.9) and Germany (+11.2 to 42.9) surged and are now both at their highest in 26 months. Although investors’…
In the near term, favor oil and oil producers outside the Gulf Arab states. Over a 12-month horizon, favor US and North American equities, defensive sectors over cyclicals, and safe-assets. Within cyclicals, stick to energy and defense.
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, a tactical buying opportunity for EUR/USD is approaching. However, this will not lead to a renewed bull market, only to a bounce toward 1.10-1.12. Sentiment toward the euro is becoming…
In the short run, global risk assets are vulnerable due to rising oil prices and bond yields. Cyclically, a global economic downturn will weigh on global risk assets.
Chinese trade and credit data delivered a negative surprise for March. On the trade front, the 7.5% y/y drop in exports came in below expectations of a 1.9% y/y decline following four consecutive months of growth. While the jump in the New Export Orders…
US Initial jobless claims declined from 222 thousand to 211 thousand in the week ending April 5, below expectations of a less pronounced decrease to 215 thousand. On a seasonally unadjusted basis, the number increased to 214 thousand. This initial claims…
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, a comprehensive review of leading US labor market indicators reveals that most are now flashing red. This includes the “Mel rule,” a refinement of the better known but less timely Sahm rule. …
In this insight, we calibrate our investment views based on the latest Bank of Canada decision.
The NFIB’s small business optimism index decreased by 0.9 points to 88.5 in March, missing expectations of 89.9, and reaching its lowest level since 2012. A few things stood out from the report: Labor market dynamics continue to slow. The net percent…
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, peaking property prices will remove the sole tailwind behind the Emirati Stock Market. Over the past couple of years, the Emirati stock market has been running on a single engine: surging…