The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) – a summary statistic of US economic data releases – firmed to 0.05 in February from -0.54, and surpassed expectations it would remain in negative (below-average growth…
The latest batch of economic data out of the UK suggests that economic conditions have recently stabilized. The flash Manufacturing PMI rose by a stronger-than-anticipated 2.4 points to a 20-month high of 49.9 in March –…
Both supply- and demand-side forces contributed to the inflation surge in 2021/2022. According to the San Francisco Fed’s estimates, the contribution of demand-side forces to annual core PCE inflation jumped from -0.09…
Swedish economic data is usually good at sniffing out the outlook for global growth. Looking at a broad swath of indicators, from domestic conditions to barometers of external demand, our colleagues from BCA’s Foreign…
The 2.1-point increase in Germany’s Ifo Business Climate index in March brought it to a 9-month high of 87.8 and beat expectations of a more muted rise to 86.0. Both current economic conditions (+1.2 to 88.1) as well as…
The US Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) unexpectedly rose by 0.1% m/m in February, surprising anticipations that the pace of decline would ease from -0.4% m/m to -0.1% m/m. Equity gains and the…
The flash PMI estimates for March produced a mixed update on manufacturing and service sector activity in the US and Eurozone. In the US, the results suggest that growth is more resilient in the manufacturing…
The steepening of the yield-curve powered the outperformance of the S&P 500 Financials relative to the overall market since the spring of 2023 banking crisis. This sector returned 30.1% over this period, against 27.3% for the…
Despite a couple of rate cuts in H2 2024, borrowing costs will remain elevated in real terms amid lower inflation in the US and Europe. This and tightening fiscal policy will hinder domestic demand in advanced economies. Domestic…