We recently pointed to the UK Budget announcement as a pivotal event for UK assets. Following an initially positive reception, the market has turned and priced in further fiscal premia in UK assets, with both gilts and the pound…

  The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, core PCE, met expectations of a reacceleration to 0.3% month-on-month, and reached 2.7% year-over-year. The rest of the Personal Income and Outlays report showed solid…

  Speculators have supported copper prices as demand growth slowed below the pace of supply growth. Our Commodity and Energy Strategy colleagues believe this does not bode well for the metal. The copper market faces a situation…

  Advanced Q3 GDP for the US met expectations, showing 2.8% quarterly annualized growth and a small deceleration from 3.0% in Q2. Importantly, growth remains above trend. The report was strong across the board except for housing.…

  Flash Q3 GDP estimates for the Euro Area beat expectations, accelerating to 0.4% quarterly growth from 0.2% last quarter. The momentum was spread across major countries, except for Italy. Meanwhile, the European Commission’…

  As US consumers remain one of the few engines of global growth, our US Investment Strategy colleagues took a deep dive on consumer trends, augmented with comments from US banks’ earnings calls. Middle-aged consumers have…

  While moving in the right direction, China’s latest stimulus measures are falling short of the mark to reflate the economy. The latest rumors extend this trend. News agencies reported discussions of a CNY 10 trillion…

  Job openings missed expectations at 7.44 million in September, a mild slowdown from August. The details of the JOLTS report were also negative, except for hirings which continue their June rebound. Meanwhile, consumer confidence…

  Our US Political Strategy colleagues now see 55% odds of a Trump victory, with odds of a Republican sweep at 47%. As odds of a contested election are rising, they built on their 2020 work to provide answers for next week’s…