Business Cycles
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, last week’s ECB meeting confirmed their long-held view that the most likely date for the first ECB rate cut would be June. The ECB continues to acknowledge that the European economy is soft…
We are pushing back the anticipated start date for a Eurozone recession and assessing how it affects our equity stance.
As we discussed in a recent Insight, the krone is the top pick for our Foreign Exchange Strategy team. The krone upgrade is one of the most significant changes in our colleagues’ attractiveness ranking model. Norway has the perfect storm of sticky inflation,…
2023 was a year of mystery for the copper market. On the one hand, China’s copper intake boomed last year despite the travails of the mainland economy and shrinking property construction. On the other hand, global copper supply mushroomed amidst persistent…
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, the Democrats are still favored for reelection due to the resilient economy, but President Biden’s victories on Super Tuesday had not positively affected his popular approval yet, which could be a…
S&P 500 EPS And Sales Growth Forecasts Are Too Optimistic
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This week, we review our currency positions, based on the latest data from G10 economies.
Presently, our four high-conviction themes are: (1) the US dollar will rally as US growth continues to outpace the rest of the world; (2) US equities will continue to outperform EM and European stocks until a major sell-off occurs; (3) a US profit margin squeeze is imminent; (4) EM domestic bonds and sovereign USD bonds are due for a setback.
In the past couple of years, Mexico has been among the favorite markets for investors within the EM space. As our Emerging Markets Strategy team argued in a recent report, the cyclical and structural outlook for Mexican risk assets remains brighter than ever.…
Our Emerging Market Strategy (EMS) colleagues recommended booking an 11.4% gain on their Egyptian T-bill trade initiated earlier in the year. Now that currency-devaluation risk has been removed from the picture for the foreseeable future, they are…