Business Cycles
The JPM Global Manufacturing PMI improved from 50.0 to 50.3 in February, indicating that global manufacturing activity is growing again after having contracted for 18 months. Notably, new orders expanded from previously contracting levels (from 49.8 to…
The preliminary Eurozone inflation release suggests that price pressures eased by less than anticipated in February. Headline CPI inflation slowed from 2.8% y/y to 2.6% y/y (slightly above expectations of 2.5% y/y. Similarly, although the core inflation gauge…
As we highlighted in a previous Insight, the breadth of the US equity rally has been relatively narrow, led by extremely strong gains among Big Tech stocks. Tech is still the best performing sector, with the S&P IT price index up 12% year-to-date on top…
The global equity rally – which fizzled at the start of the year – picked up steam again in February with nearly all major regions posting above average returns. After having underperformed last year, Chinese stocks led their global counterparts in terms of…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy and The Bank Credit Analyst services, trade policy under a second Trump presidency represents the greatest cyclical risk to investors. In 2018, the Trump administration’s trade war with China and several…
In this insight, we provide an update on the Norwegian krone, with attractive trade ideas over a long-term horizon. Shorter-term, our neutral-to-positive view on the dollar keeps us on the sidelines for USD/NOK.
Aside from the 1.0% m/m jump in personal income – which beat expectations of a 0.4% m/m rise – the US January Personal Income and Outlays report was broadly in line with consensus estimates. Nominal personal spending growth decelerated from 0.7% m/m to 0.2%…
In a recent report, our US Bond strategists argued that while the year-to-date increase in yields has made Treasures more attractive, conditions are not yet in place to extend duration. Instead, they expect that there will be a better opportunity later this…
BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service’s US equity model, Stock Coach, has become more bullish on the near-term prospects for the S&P 500. The model’s short-term (1-to-3 month) equity score improved over the course of February, finishing the…
On the surface, the latest Taiwanese export orders release delivered a positive signal on the global trade cycle. The 1.9% y/y expansion in January marks a significant improvement from the 16.0% contraction in December. Moreover, a 28% surge in orders from…