Our US economic sentiment indicator – which is based on the difference between our equity valuation index and our bond valuation index – remains on an uptrend since its pandemic trough. Investors are pushing US stocks…
On the surface, the US durable goods report delivered a negative surprise on Tuesday. The 6.1% m/m drop in new orders in January fell below expectations and the December figure was revised down to 0.3% m/m from 0.0% m/m.…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, the odds of a “Minsky Moment” are low for the Chinese banking sector. Chinese banks, however, will continue facing cyclical and structural headwinds…
Monday’s release of the Dallas Fed’s manufacturing index corroborates the signal from other regional Fed surveys that manufacturing conditions are picking up in the US. The headline Current General Business Activity…
The FTSE 250 has been outperforming the FTSE 100 since late October 2023, with the former gaining 13.7% versus 3.9% in the case of the latter over this period. To the extent that UK small cap stocks are more exposed to…
At the headline level, US equity indices are on a tear with the S&P 500 forging a fresh all-time high last week and the NASDAQ on the verge of overtaking its November 2021 record close. However, the rally remains quite narrow…
The 2023Q4 earnings season is drawing to a close with over 80% of S&P500 companies having reported results. However, the three main providers of aggregate earnings data are posting significant variations. Indeed, IBES…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, Germany will likely drag the overall Euro Area into contraction, even if, individually, other countries manage to avoid a recession. This slightly better…
Germany’s IFO Business Climate index ticked up 0.3 points to 85.5 in February, in line with consensus estimates. Expectations for the next 6 months explain the improvement in sentiment among German companies (up 0.6 points…
While efforts by policymakers to stabilize the stock market are buoying Chinese equities, domestic economic data remains soggy. Home prices declined further on both a monthly and annual basis in January, reinforcing the…