In a recent Special Report, BCA’s Foreign Exchange Strategists update their long-term fair-value models for the real effective exchange rate. The model aims to capture deviations from the long-term drivers of a currency,…
According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service, investors should take care not to read too much into the recent easing in financial conditions. According to Goldman Sachs’ Financial Conditions Index (…
Preliminary PMI estimates suggest that service sector activity is expanding across DM economies in February. Most notably, services PMIs are back at or above 50 in Australia and the Eurozone from previously contracting levels.…
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, gold purchases by central banks will continue apace, as they diversify away from USD foreign reserves. Amid elevated geopolitical risk, arising from…
Japanese exports in JPY increased by 11.9% y/y in January, up from a 9.7% y/y increase in December and surpassing expectations of 9.5% y/y. A 29.2% y/y jump in exports to China led the overall surge. Trade data from Asian…
Canada’s January CPI release shows price pressures cooling last month. Headline CPI eased to 2.9%y/y from 3.4%y/y in December, below expectations of 3.3%y/y. Furthermore, month-over-month inflation fell for the first time…
The minutes of the January FOMC meeting underscore that policymakers are adopting a cautious approach in timing the pivot to policy easing. Although Fed officials acknowledged that inflation and employment risks are “…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, European political risk is turning up again. Increased European political risk is not because of the European parliamentary elections, which will see right-wing…
The US Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell by 0.4% m/m in January, following a 0.1% m/m drop in December – disappointing expectations of a milder decline. This marks the 23rd consecutive monthly…
Chinese policymakers surprised on Tuesday with greater-than-anticipated easing for the troubled property market. Although the 1-year loan prime rate (LPR) – the benchmark for most household and corporate loans – was…