The latest update of the Atlanta Fed’s Home Ownership Affordability Monitor (HOAM) – which gauges a median-income households’ ability to absorb annual costs related to owning a median-priced home – is now…
The jubilant summer rally came to a halt in August, with the S&P 500 down 4.4% MTD. A confluence of factors has weighed on the performance of US equities ranging from economic malaise in China to too-hot economic data…
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, the Democratic Party is favored to win the 2024 election as long as it is not discredited by a major shock. But recession odds are not low. The US economy has…
German producer prices indicate that inflationary pressures continue to moderate. The producer price index’s 6.0% y/y drop in July is more pronounced than the anticipated 5.1% y/y decline and marks the first annual decrease…
Chinese banks surprised markets with a more modest-than-anticipated rate cut on Monday. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was reduced by 10 basis points to 3.45% – slightly above expectations of a bigger cut to 3.40%.…
To the extent that Taiwanese export orders are a bellwether for global trade dynamics, the latest update for July provides a less pessimistic signal about the manufacturing cycle. It shows the pace of decline slowed sharply from…
In an Insight last month, we noted that the Global Investment Strategy service increased its subjective odds for the resurgence of US inflation later this year or early next year from 20% to 30%. Here are some of the data points…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, German yields are unlikely to experience a decisive break out that would carry them to 3%. Five economic forces suggest that German yields are unlikely to…
The chief question of the 2024 election is whether US anti-establishment or populist politics is a viable electoral strategy, according to BCA’s US Political Strategy. That will have domestic and global effects not only in…
Before doctors prescribe treatments to a patient, they first make a diagnosis. The success of the treatment is contingent upon the accuracy of the diagnosis. The same is true for a country’s economy. Many commentators…