The trade war complicates the Bank of Canada’s task to achieve stable inflation. But the bottom line is that rising uncertainty, which will dampen business sentiment, will cause the BoC to cut rates by at least what is priced in the…
In this report, we explore the Canadian provincial bond market by developing a model to analyze its main drivers and understand the impact of a potential trade war between Canada and the US.
Our GeoMacro and Global Investment strategists crunched the numbers to determine what the world owes the US for its security commitments. The US administration views trade deficits and defense commitments as interconnected…
January Canadian headline inflation was in line with estimates at 1.9% y/y. The Bank of Canada’s core measures were slightly hotter than expected, rising to 2.7%, near the top of the Bank of Canada’s 1%-to-3% target range. …
Our Geopolitical strategists published a Special Report discussing President Trump’s rhetoric on territorial expansion in North America, Greenland, and Panama. The biggest surprise of Trump’s first weeks in office has not been…
This Insight is a post mortem on Canadian assets, after the threat of tariff wars.
Trump’s Tariff ObsessionDonald Trump was elected on his promise to reduce inflation, curb illegal immigration, and expunge woke ideology. Tariffs were never very high on the agenda for most voters. Nevertheless, Trump has been…
Our colleagues from The Bank Credit Analyst revisited the outlook for Canadian stocks after they outperformed global ex-US stocks in late 2024. The outperformance was driven by financials and tech. While Canadian tech gains were…
In Section I, Doug highlights that recent trade developments and news from the AI space are both consistent with a conservative investment stance. US final demand was robust in Q4, but the economy is still walking a tightrope as…
