The real threat to European equities is growth, not political risk. How low will Eurozone earnings fall during the coming recession and how much will equities decline in response?
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, investors are overstating the degree to which bond yields will rise under a Trump presidency. For one thing, the team expects the US to fall into recession…
The NFIB Small Business Optimism (SBO) index climbed from 90.5 to 91.5 in June, the highest print this year, topping consensus expectations of a softening to 90.2. On the surface, this appears to be good news. Indeed, small…
Does the incipient slowdown in European data herald a soft landing and a goldilocks period for equities? We have our doubts.
US durable goods orders grew by 0.1% m/m in May, a tick below April’s pace, and upending preliminary expectations they would decline by 0.5%. Moreover, the contraction in core capital goods shipments (an input into the…
Several pieces of data were released for the US on Thursday. US durable goods orders growth slowed from 0.2% to 0.1% in May, beating expectations of a 0.5% contraction. However other components of the report disappointed…
The consensus soft-landing narrative is wrong. The US will fall into a recession in late 2024 or early 2025. We were tactically bullish on stocks most of last year, turned neutral earlier this year, and are going underweight today.…
