Continued deterioration in labor demand underpins our expectation for a US recession, as it will lead to slower compensation growth, hobbling consumption spending’s main driver. We also previously highlighted that the…

  According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, former President Trump still has a path to come back to power, despite his disastrous performance in the debate with Vice President Kamala Harris on September 10…

  US headline CPI eased from 2.9% y/y to 2.5% in August in line with consensus predictions. However, core CPI unexpectedly accelerated from 0.2% m/m to 0.3%. Aside from airfares -- a highly volatile series which is likely to…

  The decline in oil prices accelerated this month. Although Wednesday’s moves reversed Tuesday’s sharp daily declines, Brent and WTI have fallen 11% and 10% so far in September, and 30% and 33% from their April peaks…

  Chinese export growth in USD terms accelerated from 7.0% y/y to a larger-than-expected 8.7% in August. China’s exports to its major trading partners (US, EU and ASEAN) were all growing in August on a year-on-year basis,…

  Consumer credit rose by USD 25.5bn in July (to USD 5,093.7 bn outstanding), more than twice the expected growth. However, revisions suggest that June’s consumer credit growth was slower than initially reported (USD 8.9bn to…

  Eurozone GDP’s final estimate indicates that growth was slower than expected in Q2. Output grew 0.2% q/q in Q2, compared to 0.3% previously reported. A significant downward revision to capex (2.2% contraction against 1.8%…

  August nonfarm payrolls expanded by 142 thousand workers, from a downwardly revised 89 thousand and below expectations of 165 thousand. Payroll growth fell to a four-year-low of 116 thousand on a 3-month moving average basis.…

  The ISM services PMI remained mostly stable in August, extending a second consecutive month of modest expansion. The headline index ticked 0.1 point higher to 51.5. However, although new orders continued to expand, new export…