According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, the AI gold rush will struggle to find any gold. In a gold rush, very few people get rich finding gold. But the guys selling the picks and shovels make a fortune! In the…

  China’s CPI and PPI releases delivered a negative signal about the domestic economy. The rate of contraction in the CPI index accelerated to -0.5% y/y in November, the sharpest rate of decline in 3 years and disappointing…

  Results of the New York Fed’s November Survey of Consumer Expectations corroborate the signal from the University of Michigan’s preliminary results that inflation expectations are receding. The 0.2 percentage point…

  Multiple major DM central banks are scheduled to decide on monetary policy this week. The US Fed will meet on Wednesday, followed by the ECB, BoE, and Norges Bank on Thursday. It comes after the BoC and RBA both opted to keep…

  The US employment report delivered a positive surprise on Friday. Nonfarm payroll growth accelerated from 150 thousand to 199 thousand in November, beating expectations of 185 thousand. Importantly, the favorable result was…

  The latest Bank of England/Ipsos quarterly Inflation Attitudes Survey shows the public revised down its near-term inflation outlook. Respondents now believe inflation will fall to 3.3% in the year ahead – down from 3.6% in…

  The global investment community has become well aware of many problems facing the Chinese economy including real estate excesses, policymakers’ reluctance to stimulate, as well as elevated debt levels among local…

  On the surface, Chinese export data delivered a positive surprise on Thursday, painting a favorable picture of the global manufacturing cycle. Exports unexpectedly grew on a year-over-year basis in November for the first time…

  The ‘Joshi rule’ real-time recession indicator signals the start of a US recession when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate of ‘job losers not on temporary layoff’ rises by 0.20 percent…