Copper

Copper prices are surging again after a brief pullback in the first quarter. 
What is driving the renewed strength, and can it persist?

MacroQuant recommends a slight underweight position in equities, favors a below-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios, is very positive on the US dollar, downgrades gold to underweight, upgrades copper to overweight, and remains very bullish on oil.

MacroQuant recommends an underweight position in equities, favors a below-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios, is neutral-to-slightly positive on the US dollar, remains neutral on gold, upgrades copper to neutral, and is very bullish on oil.

MacroQuant recommends a strong underweight position in equities, favors a below-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios, has become neutral-to-slightly positive on the US dollar, has downgraded gold to neutral and copper to a strong underweight, and is bullish on oil.

The current macro environment is a toxic brew of many of the same vulnerabilities that haunted the global economy in the lead-up to past recessions: Rising oil prices, an unsustainable tech capex boom, elevated equity valuations, excessively high homes prices, and brewing stresses in private credit and other parts of the financial system. While global equities look increasingly oversold in the very near term, they will still finish the year below current levels.

MacroQuant recommends a modest overweight position in equities, favors an above-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios, remains bearish on the US dollar, has downgraded oil to neutral, and is bullish on copper and gold.

The metals mania is fueling extreme volatility. 

In particular, the price of copper has become detached from fundamentals and is vulnerable to the downside.

MacroQuant recommends a slight underweight in equities, favors a below-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios, remains bearish on the US dollar, has upgraded oil and copper to overweight, and is bullish on gold.