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Corporate

What To Make Of 2023Q4 Earnings Discrepancies?
The 2023Q4 earnings season is drawing to a close with over 80% of S&P500 companies having reported results. However, the three main providers of aggregate earnings data are posting significant variations. Indeed, IBES Refinitiv reports a robust 9% y/y…
Daily Insights
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Recap Of Q4-2023 Earnings: What Are Companies Telling Us?

Reported earnings for Q4-2023 were rather underwhelming and prone to issues that we have identified over the past few months: Growth is concentrated in just a few sectors and companies, while the profitability of a broad swath of the equity market is under pressure from disinflation and sticky wages. Consumers are still spending, but less enthusiastically than before, while a switch from spending on services to spending on goods is in its very early innings. Downgrade Consumer Staples to neutral.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
Guiding Lower
According to the latest figures from FactSet, 59 of the 85 S&P 500 companies that have issued EPS guidance for Q1 2024 have guided lower. At 69%, the share of companies issuing negative EPS guidance is above both the 5-year and 10-year averages of 59% and…
Daily Insights
US Equities: A Breakout Or A Fakeout?
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, the diminishing pace of disinflation in the US could pose a threat to US share prices in the near term. In the medium term, the key risk to US share prices is shrinking corporate profits.  …
Daily Insights
Taking Stock Of The Q4 US Earnings Season
We are now more than midway through the Q4 2023 earnings season. Roughly two-thirds of the companies in the S&P 500 have released their earnings reports. It’s therefore worthwhile to stand back and observe some of the trends. According to FactSet, 75%…
Daily Insights
A Benign Quest For Efficiency?
Last Friday’s blockbuster US employment report is among the recent data releases that have focused investors’ attention on the possibility that resilient economic conditions will reduce the magnitude of Fed easing this year. Markets are now priced for roughly…
Daily Insights
A K-Shaped Market
The dominance of large tech companies in the S&P 500 has caused concern amongst investors. The Magnificent Seven now represent 30% of the index. These companies have more than doubled in value over the past year, in contrast to just over 10% for the rest…
Daily Insights
Are NYCB's Problems Symptomatic Of Broader Problems In The Banking System?
Banks were thrust back in the spotlight’s unflattering glare last week when mid-cap regional New York Community Bank shocked analysts and shareholders with an enormous credit loss. According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service, NYCB is sui…
Daily Insights
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Groundhog Day

We do not believe that NYCB is a canary in the coal mine for a new round of bank distress. The MidCap 400 Regional Bank Index’s subsequent 10% decline looks to us like a juicy opportunity for stockpickers who can separate the wheat from the chaff. Our Special Report is meant to assist them with their initial winnowing.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
US Cyclicals Versus Defensives Following The Fed’s First Rate Cut
Investors are likely to pay close attention to the Fed’s communication on Wednesday for clues about the likely timing of the first rate cut. For now, markets are assigning slightly higher odds to the central bank standing pat in March – a change from a month…
Daily Insights

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