Rising stock prices and improving economic data have us re-examining our bearish thesis, but we still see deterioration in leading labor market indicators and expect it will eventually culminate in a recession. We reiterate our…
The Bank of Japan’s Economy Watchers Survey – a gauge of sentiment among business owners – disappointed in September. The Current Conditions and the Outlook indices deteriorated from 49.0 to 47.8 and from…
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) – a summary statistic of US economic data releases – increased to 0.12 from -0.42, suggesting that the US economy improved in August. Details, however, do not point to a…
The Sentix Investor Confidence index unexpectedly improved in October from -15.4 to -13.8. A notable improvement in Expectations (from -8.0 to -3.8) drove the overall index higher, while the Current Situation subcomponent…
The NFIB Small Business Optimism index was mostly flat in September, ticking a mere 0.3 points higher to 91.5 in September, below expectations of a more meaningful improvement to 92.0. The NFIB Small Business Optimism has…
The US election underscores three long-term trends of Generational Change, Peak Polarization, and Limited Big Government. Investors should expect more volatility around the election and should assess the results before adding more…
Indian equities reached new highs in late September. Our Emerging Market strategists recommend dedicated EM investors use these gains as an opportunity to reduce Indian equity allocations from neutral to underweight. They expect both…
The Swiss KOF Barometer is a composite leading indicator of the Swiss economy. It surprised to the upside in September coming in at 105.5 against expectations of 101.0. The August reading was also significantly revised higher,…
TIPS outperformed duration-equivalent nominal Treasuries by 86 bps so far in 2024 and our US bond strategists downgraded their allocation from neutral to underweight this week. The 10-year TIPS breakeven inflation rate remains…
The JPM Global manufacturing PMI declined at an accelerating pace in September (49.6 to 48.8). Moreover, international trade flows deteriorated notably with the new export orders component falling from 48.4 to 47.5. A sector…