The risk-on soft-landing narrative dominated investors’ psyche last month and pro-cyclical assets topped the August return ranking. Asian currencies led the pack by a wide margin, while the dollar was the largest laggard…
The ongoing rally in ASEAN currencies will fizzle sooner rather than later as they are not supported by fundamentals. The ringgit and the baht, however, will fare better than the peso and the rupiah during the coming global risk-off…
Even after the Fed cuts rates, policy will remain restrictive for some time. Moreover, in history, stocks have tended to fall around the first rate cut. We remain cautious on the outlook for the economy and risk assets.
Tokyo’s CPI is a timely leading indicator of nationwide price pressures. In August, the headline, core (ex-food) and the “core core” (ex-food and energy) measures all accelerated by larger-than-expected margins…
This Insight looks at potential dollar moves in the next six-to-twelve months.
The Asian currency index (ADXY index) rose nearly 3% from its late-July lows. While CNY/USD accounted for a large share of these gains, an equal-weighted basket of non-CNY Asian currencies surged by an even larger margin (5%)…
Brazilian equities have largely underperformed their EM peers in USD terms since the beginning of the year. Rising public debt and inflation are the two main forces weighing on the Brazilian bourse. Our Emerging Market…
Our negative stance on European growth and assets is not devoid of risks. To gauge whether these risks warrant upgrading our growth outlook, we monitor Sweden closely. So, what is the current message from this Nordic economy?
UK GDP growth accelerated to 0.6% in the second quarter, and the latest PMI data underscores contrasts with its DM counterparts (see The Numbers). Several tailwinds are supporting the UK economy. Two-year Gilt yields have…
According to Goldman Sachs’ Financial Conditions Index (FCI) financial conditions have become considerably more supportive since the fall of 2023. More recently, the index ticked noticeably lower from 99.4 earlier in August…