The DXY hit a 2024 low on Wednesday. The decline which totaled nearly 5% from its April highs, gathered pace this month (a 3% decline in August) when labor market worries spooked markets. The Fed had already telegraphed it was…
Investors should buy protection against further volatility. The shakeup in early August was a taste of things to come. The US election is a pivotal moment in modern history that will drive up uncertainty, while other countries take…
The current Fed easing cycle will likely be a “buy the rumor, sell the news” phenomenon. The basis is our expectation that the US economy is heading into a rough landing. The primary driver of EM currencies is not US interest rates…
Regular readers are familiar with our expectation that the stabilization in global growth this year will be fleeting. The US has been the main source of demand in this cycle. We view the latest string of US employment data as…
The unwind of yen carry trades caused violent tremors across the globe. Was this shock a one-off event or the prelude to more troubles?
In this monthly review, we give our take on where bond yields and the dollar are headed. This is within the lens of revisiting our fundamental indicators.
The prices of multiple financial assets have failed to break above their technical resistances. When this occurs, a breakdown ensues. In brief, global risk assets remain vulnerable. We are upgrading Chinese onshore stocks from…
No clear risk-on/risk-off pattern emerged from July’s market performance data. On the one hand, consistent with a risk-off environment, US bonds ranked highest in the monthly return distribution, while pro-cyclical…
The market is pricing in a soft landing, but we see growing signs that the global economy is faltering. Investors should be defensively positioned.