Investors should overweight US assets and de-risk their portfolios in anticipation of a major increase in policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk surrounding the US election and its global ramifications.
Two of Brazil’s ever-recurring demons have come back to haunt investors: public debt sustainability and persistent inflation. According to the latest report from our Emerging Markets Strategy (EMS) team, these troubles are…
According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service, shrinking dollar liquidity often coincides with financial market crises and also leads to an appreciation in the currency, as the premium foreigners are willing…
The real threat to European equities is growth, not political risk. How low will Eurozone earnings fall during the coming recession and how much will equities decline in response?
US dollar liquidity has been shrinking, which has important ramifications for global asset prices, including currencies. In this report, we delve into the process of dollar liquidity creation and the outlook for currencies over the…
Since early 2023, the Philippine peso has depreciated by 8% versus the US dollar despite the country’s central bank pushing up real policy rates by 500 basis points. BCA’s Emerging Markets Strategy argues that raising…
South African stocks, domestic bonds, and currency have all rallied since BCA’s Emerging Markets Strategy team upgraded South African assets last month following the formation of the new national unity government. The rally…
Japanese wage growth fell below expectations in May, expanding by 1.9% y/y versus consensus estimates calling for a 2.1% y/y increase. Although this marks an acceleration from April’s 1.6% y/y, that figure was revised down…
The Chinese currency has been under considerable depreciation pressure due to capital outflows. Additionally, the economy is grappling with debt deflation and a balance sheet recession, conditions that typically call for lower…
The Labour Party won the UK election, just as BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service predicted back in 2022. However, this win is unlikely to rock the proverbial geopolitical boat. Popular enthusiasm for Sir Keir…