Developed Countries
In this Insight, we continue our series of reports outlining investment frameworks for inflation-linked bonds in the developed markets, this time focusing on Japan. Our Japanese Inflation-Linked Golden Rule suggests that investors should overweight Japanese inflation-linked bonds versus nominal JGBs on a strategic (6-12 month) investment horizon. Our new Japanese inflation models suggest that there is a material risk that Japanese inflation exceeds the current level of market-based inflation expectations over the next year.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) – a summary statistic of US economic data releases – firmed to 0.05 in February from -0.54, and surpassed expectations it would remain in negative (below-average growth) territory. All four categories of…
The latest batch of economic data out of the UK suggests that economic conditions have recently stabilized. The flash Manufacturing PMI rose by a stronger-than-anticipated 2.4 points to a 20-month high of 49.9 in March – only a hair below the 50 boom-bust…
Both supply- and demand-side forces contributed to the inflation surge in 2021/2022. According to the San Francisco Fed’s estimates, the contribution of demand-side forces to annual core PCE inflation jumped from -0.09 percentage points (pp) in February 2021…
Early-Stage VC: Aerospace & Space Technology
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A risk/reward ranking of the 10 major US investment grade corporate bond sectors.
The 2.1-point increase in Germany’s Ifo Business Climate index in March brought it to a 9-month high of 87.8 and beat expectations of a more muted rise to 86.0. Both current economic conditions (+1.2 to 88.1) as well as expectations for the next six months…
The US Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) unexpectedly rose by 0.1% m/m in February, surprising anticipations that the pace of decline would ease from -0.4% m/m to -0.1% m/m. Equity gains and the resilience of the US labor market drove the…
Crude oil prices have been steadily rising since mid-December with Brent rising to its highest level since November 2023. Both demand and supply-side forces are behind this move. The catalyst for the month-to-date gain is a series of Ukrainian drone attacks…
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, Biden’s domestic political actions are limited and in combination with the overbought and overpriced US equity market, Biden’s desperation, and the need to demonstrate credibility towards inflation…