BCA Research's US Bond Strategy service continues to recommend a neutral allocation to TIPS for now, but with a bias to turn underweight. The team calculates a forecasted range for headline CPI inflation of 0.9% to 2.9%…
Global market sentiment has improved notably since late-October. In the equity space, DM and EM stocks have gained 8.5% and 7.8% respectively since October 26. Regarding currencies, the counter-cyclical DXY index has lost 2.2% so…
Recent data releases have painted a mixed picture of US housing market dynamics. On the one hand, housing starts and building permits unexpectedly increased on a month-on-month basis in October. After falling in 2022, housing…
In this report, we evaluate the risk to carry trades in the coming months.
US jobless claims have been trending higher in recent weeks, confirming that labor market conditions are deteriorating. Initial claims came in slightly above consensus estimates on Thursday, increasing by 231 thousand versus…
US and Chinese oil-demand strength will offset EU weakness next year. Incremental supply growth from non-OPEC 2.0 producers, coupled with a lower risk of the US enforcing its sanctions on Iranian oil exports, reduces our 2024 Brent…
The New York Fed's Empire Manufacturing Index unexpectedly returned to positive territory in November, climbing 14 points to its highest level since April. The headline index suggests that manufacturing activity is…
The US retail sales release delivered a mixed signal about US consumption. Although the headline figure contracted by 0.1% m/m in October, it was better than expectations of a 0.3% m/m decline. Moreover, the September increase…
