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Developed Countries

Stay Long Bond Duration
According to our Global Investment Strategy (GIS) service, so far this year, inflation in the US has declined sharply even though employment growth has remained strong. There are many factors that have contributed to this constructive situation, including…
Daily Insights
The Portuguese Bourse Is Defensive
According to BCA Research's European Investment Strategy service, given the defensive nature of Portuguese equities and the team's recession view, investors should favor the Portuguese bourse relative to Euro Area equities. The Portuguese equity market is…
Daily Insights
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OUTLOOK 2024: The End Of The Easy Money Era

Today, we are sending you the BCA annual outlook for 2024. The report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation with Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, who are long-time BCA clients with whom we discuss the economic and financial market outlook for the next twelve months toward the end of each year.

The Bank Credit Analyst
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Gaza, Taiwan, Holland

A series of notable events took place over the Thanksgiving holiday but none of them force us to change our fundamental assessments. The conflict in the Middle East is likely to escalate rather than de-escalate, while the Taiwan Strait has at least a 50/50 chance of seeing tensions escalate next year.

Geopolitical Strategy by Yushu Ma, Max Malakhveitchouk, Matt Gertken
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Portugal: A Journey To Higher Rates

The first stop of the EIS Special Series: PIGS Have Wings takes us to Portugal.

European Investment Strategy by Jeremie Peloso
Flash US Composite PMI Unchanged In November
The US flash PMI sent a mixed signal about economic activity in November. The Composite index was unchanged at 50.7 – beating expectations of a slight decline to 50.4. The stable reading comes on the back of a deterioration in manufacturing and a slight…
Daily Insights
Consumer Discretionary Boasts Strongest Q3 Earnings Surprise
The Q3 earnings season is coming to an end. By Friday, 481 companies in the S&P 500 index had reported earnings. In aggregate, the results are generally favorable. The share of companies whose earnings exceeded analyst expectations (81.9%) is above the…
Daily Insights
Caution: Preliminary Releases Are Subject To Revision
The US nonfarm payroll report is an important monthly data release that investors scrutinize for updates on the state of the US labor market and economy more broadly. In the current context, the updates help gauge whether the US economy is heading toward…
Daily Insights
Inventory Cycles And Markets
According to BCA Research's Emerging Markets Strategy service, investors should focus on fluctuations in final demand rather than inventories. A common narrative endorsed by many market participants is that inventory restocking worldwide will support the…
Daily Insights
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Riksbank Post-Mortem And The Lessons For Other Currencies

This report looks at the prospects for the Swedish krona, following the pause by the Riksbank.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor

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