Developed Countries
The Fed’s Beige Book suggests that the slight increase in US economic activity earlier this year is fading. The number of districts reporting modest growth fell to three from six in the February release. Moreover, two of the 12 districts expect a…
The Q1-2023 US earnings season started last Friday. As companies report, we will gauge the effects of the Fed’s monetary campaign on corporate profitability. With inflation declining, and demand faltering, sales growth is key. According to Factset,…
According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service investors and regulators would be foolishly complacent if they didn’t consider the possibility that the banking turmoil could reduce credit availability and slow economic activity, but the most recent…
The ZEW Survey of German investor sentiment unexpectedly deteriorated in April. The sentiment index fell 8.9 points to 4.1, disappointing consensus estimates of an uptick to 15.6 and recording its second consecutive monthly decline. This move reveals that…
Typically, emerging market equities outperform when the US dollar is soft. But that has not been the case in the past month. Although the broad trade weighted US dollar has relapsed, EM stocks have continued underperforming their developed market peers. Will…
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service concludes that in the near-term (3-months), investors should favor bond sectors with low exposure to both rate risk and credit risk such as T-bills and agency bonds. One of the traditional relationships that fixed…
The New York Fed’s Empire State Survey delivered a positive signal about US manufacturing activity in April. The headline general business conditions index jumped 35.4 points to 10.8, unexpectedly crossing into positive territory for the first time since…
The top diplomats of the G7 countries – US, Japan, UK, Canada, Germany, France, Italy – plus the European Union are meeting in Karuizawa, Japan on April 16-18. The summits are going forward despite Japan’s recent domestic security concerns stemming from a…
The reason why the EU will try to balance economic ties with China along with defense ties with the US for as long as possible is not strictly economic. Europe and the US are much more reliant on China than Taiwan for trade, but that has not prevented the US…
Our US Bond Strategists expect the Fed to deliver one last 25 basis point rate hike at its next FOMC meeting on May 2-3 before an extended pause. Given that rate cuts are currently priced in for 2023, the implication for US bond investors is that they should…