Developed Countries

Executive Summary Global inflation will peak sometime in the next few months, a process that has likely already begun in the US. This will give policymakers some breathing room to turn less hawkish, a more credible stance given softening global growth momentum and increased financial market volatility. Our Global Golden Rule of Bond Investing suggests that overall government bond returns should turn positive over the next year, but with widening divergences across countries for our base case scenarios. Projected government bond return expectations over the next 12 months look most attractive in Australia, Germany and the UK – where far too many rate hikes are priced in – compared to the US, where the Fed is more likely to follow through on most, but not all, discounted rate increases. Japan has the lowest expected returns, and the defensive properties of “low-beta” JGBs will be less necessary with global yield momentum set to peak in the latter half of 2022. Our Global Golden Rule Base Case Scenarios For The Next 12 Months Bottom Line: The return expectations over the next year stemming from our Global Golden Rule suggest the following country allocation recommendations in global government bond portfolios: maintain overweights in Australia, Germany and the UK, stay underweight the US and neutral Canada, but downgrade Japan to underweight. Feature Chart 1A Pause In The Global Bond Bear Market Global bond markets may finally be showing signs of settling down after a painful period of rising yields and high volatility. Government bond yields across the developed economies have fallen substantially over the past week as equity and credit markets have sold off, in a typical risk-off response to increased concerns over global growth momentum. For example, benchmark 10-year government yields have fallen by -32bps both the US and UK, -25bps in Germany and -22bps in Canada since the cyclical intraday high was reached on May 9. These moves are modest in the context of the cyclical bond bear market, with the Bloomberg Global Treasury index still down -12.1% year-to-date and -14.4% on a year-over-year basis (Chart 1). That painful selloff has been driven by expectations of intense monetary tightening in response to surging global inflation. However, last week’s release of US Consumer Price Index data for April confirmed that US goods inflation has peaked, a trend that we expect to follow suit in other countries (Chart 2). That will leave inflation momentum, and eventual interest rate hikes, to be driven more by domestic services inflation that will prove to be less correlated across countries over the next 6-12 months (Chart 3). Chart 2Inflation & Rate Hike Expectations Have Become Correlated. . .​​​​​​ Chart 3. . .Making Our Global Golden Rule All About Inflation​​​​​​ With that in mind, we revisit our framework for linking government bond returns to monetary policy outcomes versus expectations, the Global Golden Rule of Bond Investing. A Brief Overview Of The Global Golden Rule In September 2018, we published a Special Report introducing a government bond return forecasting methodology called the “Global Golden Rule.” This was an extension of a framework introduced by our sister service, US Bond Strategy, that links US Treasury returns (versus cash) to changes in the fed funds rate that were not already discounted in the US Overnight Index Swap (OIS) curve.1 The historical results convincingly showed that investors who "get the Fed right" by making correct bets on changes in the funds rate versus expectations were very likely to make the right call on the direction of Treasury yields and Treasury returns. Related Report  Global Fixed Income StrategyRevisiting Our Global Golden Rule Of Bond Investing We discovered that relationship also held in other developed market countries. This gave us a framework to help project expected global bond returns simply based on a view for future central bank interest rate moves versus market expectations.2 Specific details on the calculation of the Global Golden Rule can be found in those original 2018 papers. In the following pages, we present the latest results of the Global Golden Rule for the US, Canada, Australia, the UK, the euro area and Japan. The set-up for the chart shown for each country is the same. We show the 12-month policy rate “surprise”, defined as the actual change in the central bank policy rate over the preceding 12-months versus the expected 12-month change in the policy rate from a year earlier extracted from OIS curves (a.k.a. our 12-month discounters). We then compare the 12-month policy rate surprise to the annual excess return over cash (treasury bills) of the Bloomberg government bond index for each country. We also show the 12-month policy rate surprise versus the 12-month change in the government bond index yield. The very strong historical correlation between those latter two series is the backbone of the Global Golden Rule framework. After that, we present tables showing expected yield changes and excess returns for various maturity points, as well as the overall government bond index, derived from the Global Golden Rule regressions. The expected change in yield is derived from regressions on the policy rate surprises, with different estimations done for each maturity point. In the tables, we show the results for different scenarios for changes in policy rates. For example, the row in the return tables labeled “+25bps” would show the expected yield changes and excess returns if the central bank for that particular country lifts the policy interest rate by +25bps over the next 12 months. Showing these scenarios allows us to pick the one that most closely correlates to our own expectation for central bank actions, translating that into government bond return expectations. Global Golden Rule: US Chart 4Risk/Reward Favors Less UST-Bearish Fed'Surprises' US Treasuries have delivered a painful loss of -7.8% versus cash over 12 months. Bearish outcomes of such magnitude were last seen during 1994 and 1999 when the Fed was aggressively lifting the funds rate. The Fed delivered a smaller hawkish surprise over the past year than those 1990s episodes, with a trailing 12-month policy rate surprise of -72bps. Thus, the Golden Rule underestimated losses realized by US Treasuries, as US bond yields moved to price in far more Fed tightening than what was expected one year ago. The US OIS curve now discounts +229bps of rate hikes over the next 12 months, taking the fed funds rate to 3.3% (Chart 4). That is a more aggressive profile than was laid out in the March 2022 Fed “dots”, where the median FOMC member projection called for the funds rate to climb to 2.8% in 2023. That means there is less scope for Fed rate hikes to surprise versus market expectations that are already very hawkish, at a time when US growth and inflation momentum is rolling over. Our base case calls for the Fed to deliver +200bps of rate increases over the next year, +50bps at the next two policy meetings followed by +25bps at the subsequent four meetings. That outcome produces a Golden Rule forecast of the overall US Treasury index yield falling -13bps, generating a total return of +3.73% (Tables 1 & 2). Table 1US: Government Bond Index Total Return Forecasts Over The Next 12 Months Table 2US: Expected Changes In Treasury Yields Over The Next 12 Months Global Golden Rule: Canada Chart 5Canadian Bonds Selloff After A Hawkish BoC Canadian government bonds have sold off hard over the past 12 months, delivering an excess return over cash of -7.5% (Chart 5). That loss reflects the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) hawkish turn, but is a less severe outcome compared to other developed economy government bond markets that saw a major repricing of rate hike expectations like the US and Australia. Losses in the Canadian government bond market were consistent with the +34bps of hawkish surprises delivered by the BoC, which tightened by +75bps on a 12-month basis versus the +41bps expected by markets in May 2021. Rate expectations are highly aggressive on a forward basis. The Canadian OIS curve now discounts 210bps of interest rate increases over the next 12 months. However, high household debt in Canada, fueled by a relentlessly expanding housing bubble, will limit the ability of the BoC to match the Fed’s rate hikes over the next 6-12 months. Higher debt levels also imply a lower nominal neutral rate of interest, as the BoC has less room to hike before debt servicing costs become overly burdensome for overleveraged Canadian consumers. Our base case is that the BoC will deliver +150bps of tightening over the next 12 months. This produces a Golden Rule forecast of a decline in the overall Canadian government bond index yield of -17bps, delivering a projected total return of 4.52% (Tables 3 & 4). Table 3Canada: Government Bond Index Total Return Forecasts Over The Next 12 Months Table 4Canada: Expected Changes In Government Bond Yields Over The Next 12 Months Global Golden Rule: Australia Chart 6Aggressive Rate Hike Expectations On A Forward Basis For Australia Australian government bonds have delivered a negative excess return over cash of -9.6% over the past year (Chart 6). This is the biggest sell-off among all the countries covered in our Global Golden Rule framework. The magnitude of those realized losses far exceeded what would have been predicted by the Golden Rule a year ago, with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivering only a modest hawkish surprise. An unexpectedly high Australian headline inflation print of 5.1% in Q1 of this year led the RBA to deliver a surprise +25bps rate hike in April. This created a mild hawkish policy rate surprise of -17bps over the past 12 months, as only +8bps of tightening had been discounted in the Australian OIS curve in May 2021. The Australian OIS curve is now discounting 292bps of rate hikes over the next year, taking the cash rate to just over 3% - a level last seen in 2013 when the neutral rate in Australia was much higher by the RBA’s own reckoning. The RBA appears confident in the Australian economy, forecasting the unemployment rate to reach a 50-year low around 3.5% in 2023. However, we believe the RBA will be more measured in its pace of rate increases over the next year than markets expect, as global traded goods inflation cools and Australian wages are still not overheating. According to the Golden Rule projections, our base case of +150bps of tightening will produce a decline in Australian government bond index yield of -92bps, delivering a projected total return of 9.29% (Tables 5 & 6). Table 5Australia: Government Bond Index Total Return Forecasts Over The Next 12 Months Table 6Australia: Expected Changes In Government Bond Yields Over The Next 12 Months Global Golden Rule: UK Chart 7The BoE Will Hike Less Than Markets Expect UK government bonds have gotten hit hard over the past year, delivering a negative excess return over cash of -7.9% - one of the worst performances seen over the past quarter century (Chart 7). The size of that loss was in line with the Global Golden Rule forecasts, given the magnitude of the rate shock seen in the UK. The Bank of England (BoE) hiked rates by 90bps over the past 12 months, which was a hawkish surprise of -79bps compared to what was discounted one year earlier. The UK OIS curve is now priced for another +139bps of rate hikes over the next year. This would take the BoE’s Bank Rate to 2.4%, a level that would push the UK unemployment rate up by two percentage points and lower UK inflation to below 2% within the next 2-3 years, according to the BoE’s own forecasting models. As we discussed in our report last week, where we upgraded our stance on UK Gilts to overweight, the neutral level of UK policy rates is between 1.5-2%, at best, with UK potential growth barely above 1%. Thus, markets are already pricing in a very restrictive monetary policy stance from the BoE that is unlikely to be fully delivered before UK growth and inflation decline sharply. Our base case calls for the BoE to deliver only another +75bps of hikes over the next year, which will produce a fall in the UK government bond index yield of -21bps and a total return of 4.12% (Tables 7 & 8). Table 7UK: Government Bond Index Total Return Forecasts Over The Next 12 Months Table 8UK: Expected Changes In Gilt Yields Over The Next 12 Months Global Golden Rule: Germany Chart 8German Bunds Stand To Gain From An ECB Dovish Surprise German government bonds suffered major losses over the past year, underperforming cash by -8.5% over the past year. We saw no policy surprise from the European Central Bank (ECB) over that time relative to market expectations (Chart 8). The dramatic sell-off instead reflected surging expectations of future tightening as the euro area faces an energy-driven inflation spike. The trailing 12-month policy rate surprise for Germany (and the overall euro area) remains stuck near zero. However, markets now expect a very aggressive move by the ECB, discounting a full +156bps of tightening over the next 12 months. This would push the ECB’s main refinancing rate to levels last seen in the disastrous tightening cycle during the 2011 European debt crisis. As argued by our colleagues at BCA Research European Investment Strategy, the euro area is heading into a growth slowdown and energy inflation looks set to peak. Even if the hawks are able to sway the ECB Governing Council to begin hiking rates this summer, the slowing trajectory of growth and inflation make it highly unlikely that the ECB will deliver the full amount of tightening currently discounted. Our base case is that the ECB will deliver only +50bps of tightening over the next 12 months, enough to push the deposit rate out of negative territory to 0%. As shown in Tables 9 & 10, this is consistent with the Germany government bond index yield falling -55bps, delivering an index return of 5.07% over a 12-month horizon. Table 9Germany: Government Bond Index Total Return Forecasts Over The Next 12 Months Table 10Germany: Expected Changes In Bund Yields Over The Next 12 Months Global Golden Rule: Japan Chart 9The Upside On A BoJ Dovish Surprise Is Limited Japanese government bonds (JGBs) have delivered an excess return versus cash of -1.8% over the past twelve months (Chart 9). The policy rate surprise was flat as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept the policy rate unchanged at -0.1%. Admittedly, the Golden Rule framework is poorly suited to project Japanese bond returns. The BoJ has been unable to lift policy rates for many years, while instituting yield curve control on 10-year JGBs since 2016 to anchor yields near zero. With no variability on policy rates or bond yields, a methodology that links bond returns to unexpected policy interest rate changes will have poor predictive power. However, rates traders are making some attempt to challenge the BoJ’s ultra-dovish posture. The Japan OIS curve now discounts +9bps of tightening, approximately enough to push the policy rate to zero, over the next 12 months. With the yen weakening rapidly and the cost of imported energy elevated, consumer price inflation in Tokyo (excluding fresh food) hit the BoJ’s 2% target in April. However, as evidenced in the minutes of the March BoJ meeting, policymakers see a sustainable inflation overshoot as unlikely. Our base case is the “Flat” scenarios shown in Tables 11 & 12, with the BoJ keeping policy rates unchanged for the next twelve months and delivering a slight dovish surprise. That generates a Golden Rule forecast of a -6bps fall in the Japanese government bond index yield, with a total return projection of 0.87%. Table 11Japan: Government Bond Index Total Return Forecasts Over The Next 12 Months Table 12Japan: Expected Changes In JGB Yields Over The Next 12 Months Investment Implications Of The Global Golden Rule Projections For all the countries discussed above, our base case calls for the respective central banks to deliver less tightening than markets are discounting over the next year. This suggests that government bonds should be expected to deliver positive returns versus cash, even as we expect multiple rate increases from all central banks except the BoJ. While this could argue for an above-benchmark duration stance at the overall global level, we prefer to translate the Global Golden Rule results via country allocations – as we have greater conviction on relative central bank moves in the current high inflation environment – while keeping overall global duration exposure at neutral. The return outcomes for our base case scenarios for the six countries in our Global Golden Rule framework are presented in Table 13. We show the expected returns both in local currency and hedged into US dollars, the latter allowing a comparison in common currency terms. In our base case scenarios, we expect Australian and German government bonds to deliver the strongest performance over the next year, followed by the UK, Canada, the US and Japan. Table 13Our Global Golden Rule Base Case Scenarios For The Next 12 Months Chart 10Downgrade 'Defensive' Low-Yield-Beta JGBs To Underweight Our UK upgrade to overweight last week was a change to our strategic call on Gilts. Based on the results from our Global Golden Rule update, increased exposure to UK Gilts should be “funded” in a global bond portfolio by reducing exposure to Japan, with JGBs expected to deliver the weakest returns. Cutting JGB exposure also fits with the signal from our Global Duration Indicator, which is heralding a peak in global bond yield momentum in the latter half of 2022 (Chart 10). JGBs are typically a good “defensive” overweight country allocation in an environment of rising global bond yields. Persistently low Japanese inflation prevents the BoJ from credibly signaling rate hikes when other central banks like the Fed are lifting rates in response to stronger growth or overshooting inflation as is currently the case. The relative performance of Japan versus the Bloomberg Global Treasury benchmark index (in USD-hedged terms) is highly correlated to the year-over-year momentum of the overall level of global bond yields. With our Duration Indicator signaling a peak in yield momentum, we expect JGBs, which continue to exhibit a very low “beta” to changes in global bond yields, to underperform. Thus, this week we are downgrading our strategic allocation to Japan from overweight (4 out of 5) to underweight (2 out of 5). We view this as an offsetting recommendation to our UK upgrade from last week, while leaving our other country allocations unchanged. The result is that our country recommendations now line up with the expected returns from our Global Golden Rule, as can be seen in Table 13. That includes leaving the recommended US Treasury exposure at underweight, as we expect the Fed to deliver the smallest dovish surprise out of the central banks discussed in this report. We are adding both of the view changes made over the past two weeks, upgrading the UK and downgrading Japan, to our model bond portfolio as seen on pages 20-21. Bottom Line: Our Global Golden Rule suggests that developed market government bonds are expected to deliver positive returns over the next year as softening inflation momentum leads central banks to not fully deliver discounted rate hikes. Return expectations look most attractive in Australia, Germany and the UK, especially compared to the US and Japan.     Robert Robis, CFA Chief Fixed Income Strategist rrobis@bcaresearch.com Shakti Sharma Senior Analyst ShaktiS@bcaresearch.com Deborah Acri Research Associate deborah.acri@bcaresearch.com Footnotes 1      Please see BCA Research US Bond Strategy Special Report, "The Golden Rule Of Bond Investing", dated July 24, 2018, available at usbs.bcarearch.com. 2     Please see BCA Research Global Fixed Income Strategy Special Report, "The Global Golden Rule Of Bond Investing", dated September 25, 2018, available at gfis.bcaresearch.com. GFIS Model Bond Portfolio Recommended Positioning     Active Duration Contribution: GFIS Recommended Portfolio Vs. Custom Performance Benchmark The GFIS Recommended Portfolio Vs. The Custom Benchmark Index Global Fixed Income - Strategic Recommendations* Cyclical Recommendations (6-18 Months) Tactical Overlay Trades

Special Report

Executive Summary UK Stocks Are Close To A Bottom The UK economic outlook has greatly deteriorated. Weak global growth and punishing energy inflation will cause activity to contract over the next 12 months. Cost-push pressures will drag inflation above 10% in 2022. Moreover, demand-pull inflation highlights problems with the supply-side of the economy. UK yields have downside relative to those in the Euro Area. GBP/USD will bottom once global stock prices find a floor. EUR/GBP possesses more upside. UK stocks will enjoy a structural tailwind relative to their Eurozone counterparts as a result of a secular bull market in commodity prices. Nonetheless, UK equities are likely to underperform in the second half of 2022. UK small-cap stocks are massively oversold compared to large-cap shares; however, a peak in energy inflation must take place for small-cap equities to stage a rebound. TACTICAL INCEPTION DATE RETURN SINCE INCEPTION (%) COMMENT Overweight UK Gilts Within European Fixed-Income Portfolios 05/16/2022   Cyclical Buy European Healthcare Equities / Sell UK Healthcare Equities 05/16/2022   Tactical Buy European Financials Equities / Sell UK Financials Equities 05/16/2022   Tactical Bottom Line: British Gilts will outperform because of the weakness in UK economic activity, but the trade-weighted pound will remain under pressure. The performance of UK large-cap names is mostly independent from the state of the British economy. The commodity secular bull market will create a potent tailwind for this market. However, a better entry point lies ahead.       The Bank of England’s (BoE) latest policy meeting was a cold shower for market participants and their aggressive interest rate pricing in the SONIA curve. Money markets expected a peak in the Bank Rate of 2.7% in 2023, but the BoE’s new Market Participants Survey is calling for it to peak at 1.75% before easing off to 1.5% in 2024. The UK economy is in trouble. Inflation is high and broad-based, which explains why investors are pricing in such an aggressive path for the Bank Rate. Yet, economic activity is weakening and could even contract in early 2023. The BoE clearly puts more weight on growth than investors do. What are the implications of the inflation, growth, and policy outlook for British assets? BCA has upgraded its view on UK bonds to overweight within global fixed income portfolios. We expect more softness in the pound versus the euro. UK large-cap stocks will continue to trade in line with energy dynamics, which means it is still too early to buy British small-cap equities. In the meantime, UK financial and healthcare names will underperform their Euro Area counterparts. Growth To Weaken Further The -0.1% month-over-month GDP contraction in March underscores that UK economic activity has already decelerated sharply. However, the deterioration is only starting. Most sectors of the economy show ominous signs for the quarters ahead. Consumer Sector The biggest hurdle facing UK consumers, like most of their European neighbors, is the surge in inflation, particularly energy and food prices. Safety nets are looser than on the continent, and UK households’ real disposable income are contracting sharply. The impact of this weakening of activity is already visible. UK consumer confidence is falling in line with the knock to real disposable income (Chart 1, top panel). Moreover, real retail sales have already slowed sharply, and the BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales measure is contracting on an annual basis (Chart 1, bottom panel). As a result, the outlook for consumption is worsening. Ofgem, the UK gas and electricity market regulator, lifted its energy price cap by 54% on April 1st and plans to increase it again by an expected 40% in October. Consequently, the BoE anticipates the share of households’ disposable income spent on energy to hit 7.7% by the end of the year — its highest level since the early 1980s (Chart 2). Chart 1Falling Real Incomes Hurt Chart 2Intensifying Energy Drag The savings cushion developed during the pandemic will not be enough to prevent weaker retail sales. More than 40% of households plan to dip into their existing savings and curtail their savings rate; however, UK excess savings skew heavily toward the richer households. Poorer households with low savings are the ones who spend the largest share of their income on energy (Chart 3), and they are also the ones with a higher marginal propensity to consume. Thus, the knock to these households portends further weakness in consumption volumes. Chart 3The Poor Are Hit Harder Chart 4No Salvation From Housing Housing is unlikely to save the day. While house prices and housing transactions are robust (Chart 4, top panel), mortgage approvals are declining rapidly and average sales per chartered surveyors are also softening (Chart 4, bottom panels), which suggests housing activity will slow. Rising mortgage rates are a problem. Since January, the quoted rates on mortgages with 90% LTV and 75% LTV are up 65bps and 70bps, respectively, which is hurting housing marginal demand. Moreover, 20% of the UK’s mortgage stock carries variable rates, which further hurts aggregate demand. Business Sector The business sector is also feeling the crunch from rapidly rising energy and input costs. It also dreads the deterioration in consumer sentiment and its implication for future final demand. Chart 5Dwindling Capex Outlook Business confidence is falling abruptly. The CBI Inquiry Business Optimism measure has fallen to its lowest level since the beginning of the pandemic in 2020, when the UK GDP was contracting at a 21% annualized rate (Chart 5). Unsurprisingly, the collapse in business confidence prompted a rapid slowdown in CAPEX. The BoE’s Agents Survey reports that 40% of UK firms have unsustainably low profit margins because of rising input prices and partial pass-through. As a result of financial stress, further capex weakness is likely in the coming quarters. The impact on overall activity of these expanding worries is evident. UK industrial production has slowed very sharply and is now a meager 0.7% on an annual basis. The situation will degrade. Export growth remains strong, which is helping the business sector; however, the rapid slowdown in global industrial production indicates that UK exports will follow suit (Chart 5, second panel). This will have a knock-on effect on corporate profits (Chart 5, bottom panel), which will depress capex further. Other Considerations Chart 6No Offset From The Government The problems of the private sector may be encapsulated in one indicator. After a surge that boosted GDP, the UK’s nonfinancial private sector’s credit impulse is rapidly contracting (Chart 6), which confirms that risks to activity are building. The public sector will not provide an offset. According to the IMF Fiscal Monitor’s projections, the UK’s fiscal thrust will equal -3.3% of GDP in 2022 and -1.4% in 2023, even after the small giveaways from Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s Spring Statement (Chart 6, bottom panel). Together, these developments confirm our view that UK GDP may also flirt with a recession in the coming 12 months. Bottom Line: The UK economy is facing potent headwinds and activity is set to contract over the coming quarters. Surging energy costs are hurting household consumption and businesses are cutting investment. This time around, government spending is unlikely to come to the rescue, at least not until further pain is inflicted on the UK’s private sector. The BoE expects output to contract in early 2023, with which we agree. Inflation: The Worst Of Both Worlds UK headline inflation is likely to move into double digits territory before year-end. Worrisomely, it will also be more stubborn than that of the Eurozone, because it goes beyond higher food and energy input costs. Essentially, the UK suffers from both the cost-push inflation plaguing the rest of Europe and the demand-pull inflation witnessed in the US. Chart 7Continued Pass-Through The UK’s cost-push inflation will worsen in the second half of the year and could lift headline CPI above 10% by Q4 2022. Its main driver will be the Ofgem’s second energy cap increase scheduled for October, which is expected to increase household energy costs by 40%. Companies will also try to pass through a greater proportion of their rising costs to their consumers to protect their depleted margins. So far, the BoE’s Agents Survey reveals that on average, UK firms have passed through 80% of their non-labor input cost increases (Chart 7, top panel). In all the sectors surveyed, expected price increases are set to accelerate compared to the past 12 month and may even reach 14% in the manufacturing sector and 8% in the consumer goods sector (Chart 7, bottom panel). Demand-pull inflation is also present in the UK, unlike the rest of Europe, with core CPI at 5.7%, high service inflation, and rapidly rising wage growth. The key problem is an overheating labor market exacerbated by labor supply problems. By the end of 2021, the UK recorded 600 thousand inactive people more than before the pandemic, or individuals who are of working age but outside of the labor force and not seeking a job. This has compressed the labor participation rate to 63%, or the lowest level since the 2011-2012 period (Chart 8). So far, not even rapid wage gains have incentivized these persons to seek employment. The impact of Brexit further curtails the supply of labor. Since the pandemic began, the size of the working age population has decreased by 100 thousand as EU citizens have moved back home (Chart 8, second panel). Labor demand, however, is not weak. Job vacancies have surged to an all-time high of 1.3 million, or a ratio of one job vacancy per unemployed worker. Moreover, according to the BoE’s Agents Survey, the proportion of firms reporting recruitment difficulties is extremely elevated (Chart 8, third panel). As a result of weak labor supply but strong labor demand, wages are rising rapidly (Chart 8, bottom panel), with the KPMG/REC Indicator of pay higher than 6%. Chart 8Labor Market Tightness Chart 9Poor Productivity Weighs On Trend GDP Rapidly increasing wages and underlying inflation are indicative of a greater malaise. UK GDP is still 3.6% below its pre-COVID trend, while US GDP has already moved past its previous peak. Yet, wages and underlying inflation are just as strong in both economies. This suggests that the UK trend GDP has slowed more than in the US and that aggregate demand is colliding more rapidly with the constraint created by a weaker potential GDP. Labor supply is not the only culprit behind the slowdown in UK’s trend GDP. Since Brexit, UK capex has been particularly weak, which has depressed productivity growth and suppressed trend GDP further (Chart 9). Bottom Line: The BoE expects UK headline CPI inflation to move above 10% before the end of the year. We agree with this assessment. Cost-push inflation will remain strong in response to additional increases in regulated energy prices this fall and greater pass-through from businesses. Meanwhile, the labor market is overheated because of weak labor supply and surging job vacancies. The UK core inflation is likely to be sticky as Brexit weighs on the country’s trend GDP, which causes aggregate demand to surpass aggregate supply easily. Investment Implications The investment implications of the UK’s weak growth and strong inflation outlook are far reaching. Fixed Income Implications BCA’s Global Fixed Income Strategy service upgraded UK government bonds to overweight from underweight in their global fixed income portfolios. We heed this message and move to overweight UK Gilts relative to German Bunds within European fixed income portfolios. Chart 10The BoE's Dovish Justification The BoE’s forecast calls for a deeply negative output gap as well as a rising rate of unemployment in 2023 and 2024. According to the BoE’s model, these dynamics will weigh on headline CPI next year (Chart 10). We take the BoE at its word when it communicated a gentler pace of rate hikes than was anticipated by the SONIA curve. The BoE believes that the weakness in the UK’s trend GDP growth weighs on the country’s neutral rate of interest. Thus, there is a limited scope before higher interest rates hurt economic activity. Since the BoE already foresees a poor growth outcome and weaker inflation next year, this view of the neutral rate logically results in a shallow path of interest rate increases. In other words, the BoE is not the Fed. This view prompts our fixed income colleagues to expect the SONIA curve to move toward the gentler rhythm of interest rate hikes proposed by the BoE. As a corollary, it implies that Gilt yields have more downside. More specifically, BCA sees room for UK-German yields spreads to narrow. Investors have expected the BoE to be significantly more hawkish than the European Central Bank (ECB), and a partial convergence in expected interest rate paths is likely. Moreover, UK yields have a higher beta than German ones. As a result, the current wave of risk aversion driven by global growth fears should cause an outperformance of UK government bonds compared to German ones. Currency Market Implications The outlook for GBP/USD depends on the evolution of overall market conditions. If risk assets remain under pressure, so will Cable. Chart 11Cable And EM Stocks A durable bottom in GBP/USD will coincide with a rebound in EM equities (Chart 11). The correlation between these two assets most likely reflects the UK’s current account deficit of 2.8% of GDP in 2021. Large external financing needs render the currency very sensitive to global liquidity conditions and thus, to the dollar’s trend and global risk aversion, as is the case with EM assets. Peter Berezin, BCA Chief Global Strategist, expects global stocks to rebound in the near future, which will lift EM equities in the process. Interestingly, GBP/USD does not correlate with the relative performance of EM shares. Thus, a rebound in Cable does not contradict BCA’s Emerging Market Strategy service’s view that EM stocks are likely to underperform further in the coming months. Chart 12A Big Handicap For the GBP vs the EUR BCA’s Foreign Exchange strategy team sees further upside in EUR/GBP, toward the 0.9 level. 2-year yield differentials between the UK and Germany are likely to narrow in response to the downgrade of the SONIA curve. Importantly, the wide UK current account deficit necessitates higher real interest rates to prop the pound against the euro because the Eurozone current account surplus stands at 2.3% of GDP. However, neither the 2-year nor 10-year real rates are higher in the UK than they are in the Euro Area (Chart 12). Additionally, even the nominal yield premium of UK bonds vanishes once they are hedged into euros. UK hedged 2-year bonds yield 50bps less than their German counterparts, and 10-year Gilts offer 80bps less than Bunds, which limits continental inflows into the UK. Equity Market Implications UK stocks are pro-cyclical, and their absolute performance will bottom in tandem with global equities. The near-term outlook for global equities remains clouded by the confluence of global growth fears, a weaker CNY, and tighter monetary policy around the world. Meanwhile, UK stocks are very cheap, trading at a forward P/E ratio of 11. They are tactically oversold and are lagging forward earnings (Chart 13). Relative to global equities, the performance of UK stocks will continue to track that of global energy firms compared to the broad market. The heavy exposure of UK large-cap indices to oil and gas stocks has been a major asset since energy shares have become market darlings (Chart 14). Chart 13UK Stocks Are Close To A Bottom Chart 14UK Large-Caps Are About Oil At the time of writing, Sweden and Finland have yet to officialize their membership application to NATO, but BCA’s Geopolitical Strategy team assigns a high probability to this outcome. Russia will not stand idly by, especially as the EU threatens to cut their oil imports. Consequently, a deeper energy embargo is increasingly likely, which should prompt a temporary but violent rally in oil and natural gas prices. This process should sustain a few more weeks of outperformance from UK large-cap shares relative to the rest of the world. Chart 15The UK vs The Eurozone: Cheap But Overbought Structurally, UK equities are likely to remain well supported. A pullback in relative performance later this year is possible once oil prices ease off as BCA’s Commodity and Energy team expects. However, the oil market will stay tight for years to come because of the investment dearth observed since 2014-2015, when OPEC 2.0 started its market-share war. According to Bob Ryan, BCA’s Chief Commodity Strategist, it will take years of high returns in the sector to attract the capital needed to lift energy capex enough to line up supply with demand. Thus, energy remains a structurally favored sector, which will boost the cheap UK market’s appeal. UK stocks enjoy a structural tailwind relative to Euro Area shares. They remain cheap, because they still trade at a significant historical discount (Chart 15). Moreover, relative earnings are moving decisively in favor of UK stocks, something that is unlikely to change, even if the UK economy contracts. Ultimately, UK large-cap names derive the bulk of their profits from overseas and the structural tailwind of a secular commodity bull market will continue to assert itself on relative profits. Nevertheless, UK shares have also become extremely overbought, which raises the risk of a pullback in the second half of the 2022 (Chart 15, third and fourth panel). The recent outperformance of UK stocks relative to those of the Eurozone has been larger than what sectoral biases explain. An equal-sector weights version of the UK MSCI has outperformed a similarly constructed Euro Area index by 9.6% year-to-date. Chart 16Waiting For Catalysts To A Eurozone Rebound A tactical rectification of the overbought conditions in the performance of UK equities relative to those of the Euro Area will require an ebbing of stagflation fears in the Euro Area (Chart 16, top panel). This implies that investors looking to buy Eurozone equities are waiting for a stabilization in the energy market (that is, waiting for clarity about Sweden’s and Finland’s NATO decision as well as Russia’s response). It also means that the Chinese economy must stabilize, since Eurozone equities are more sensitive to the evolution of the Chinese credit impulse than UK ones (Chart 16, second panel). Nonetheless, BCA’s Global Fixed Income Strategy team’s view on UK-German spreads is consistent with an eventual tactical pull back in the relative performance of UK stocks vis-à-vis Euro Area ones (Chart 16, bottom panel). Two pair trades make attractive vehicles to bet on an underperformance of UK stocks relative to those of the Euro Area in the second half of 2022. The first one is to sell UK financials at the expense of Euro Area financials. Historically, a decline in UK Gilt yields relative to their German equivalent strongly correlates with an underperformance of UK financials (Chart 17). The second one is to sell UK healthcare names relative to those in the Eurozone. The relative performance of healthcare shares has greatly outpaced relative earnings and is now hitting a critical resistance level (Chart 18). Moreover, UK healthcare firms are exceptionally overbought relative to their Euro Area competitors. Importantly, those two trades display little correlation to the broad market trend. Chart 17Challenges To UK Financials Chart 18UK Healthcare: Running Ahead Of Itself Finally, UK small-cap stocks are becoming attractive relative to their large-cap counterparts, although the timing remains risky. Unlike the internationally focused large-cap indices, small-cap shares are a direct bet on the health of the UK domestic economy. Hence, small- and mid-cap names have massively underperformed the FTSE-100 as market participants sniffed out the poor outlook for UK economic activity (Chart 19). They are now extremely oversold relative to large-cap names and their overvaluation has been corrected. The main problem with small-cap shares is the lack of a catalyst to rectify their oversold conditions. The most likely candidate for such a reversal would be a peak in energy inflation, considering it stands at the crux of the headwinds that UK consumption and growth face. However, energy CPI will not peak until later this fall and thus, the pain on UK households will build until then. As a result, wait for a clear sign that energy inflation recedes before entering a long UK small-cap / short UK large-cap contrarian trade (Chart 20). Chart 19Bombed Out Small-Caps... Chart 20…Need A Peak In Energy Inflation Bottom Line: In line with our expectations that UK growth will worsen significantly in the quarters ahead, we follow the BCA Global Fixed Income team and move to overweight UK government bonds within European fixed income portfolios. While we expect GBP/USD will bottom once global risk assets find a floor, BCA’s Foreign Exchange Strategy team also anticipates Sterling to depreciate further relative to the euro. Because of their large energy and materials exposure, UK large-cap equities will enjoy a structural outperformance relative to Euro Area large-cap indices on the back of a secular bull market in commodities. However, a temporary pullback in the UK’s relative performance is likely in the second half of 2022. Selling UK financials and UK healthcare stocks relative to their Eurozone counterparts offers a compelling approach to implement this view. Finally, UK small-caps are oversold relative to large-caps, but we recommend investors wait until energy CPI peaks when a relative rebound may emerge.   Mathieu Savary, Chief European Strategist Mathieu@bcaresearch.com Tactical Recommendations Cyclical Recommendations Structural Recommendations