The ZEW survey of both German business expectations and current situation largely disappointed in September, decreasing by 15.6 points to 3.6 and by 7.2 points to -84.5, respectively. The ZEW survey of expectations for…
Industrial metals returned a whopping 6% over the past week. Bullish investor sentiment is likely driving these gains. The soft-landing narrative has been gaining traction in recent days with markets pricing in increased odds…
Stocks are a forward discounting mechanism and routinely top before recessions begin, even if they typically do not swoon until the recession has taken hold. According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service, if…
Investors should de-risk tactically in expectation of shocks and surprises ahead of the US election and an uncertain aftermath. Democratic victory with a gridlocked Congress is our base case but would bring minor tax hikes and…
The timeliest of the regional Fed manufacturing surveys sent a positive signal about the state of US manufacturing activity in September. The Empire State manufacturing general business conditions index surprised positively.…
Investors are pricing in a soft landing in the US. Notably, we noted that pro-cyclical assets topped the performance ranking in August. At the same time, the S&P 500 is currently trading only 1% below its all-time highs.…
According to BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation Strategy service, a common objection to buying Bitcoin raised by traditional investors is that it is too volatile. In the past it has been argued that this is irrelevant,…
We noted earlier this month that the Fed would be unlikely to deliver a jumbo rate cut without telegraphing it first. President Williams' and Governor Waller’s September 6 speeches offered policymakers one last chance…
Preliminary estimates suggest that consumer sentiment improved in September. The headline University of Michigan consumer sentiment index increased from 67.9 to a higher-than-projected 68.5. Both the current conditions and…