According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint Strategy service, the post-pandemic US economy has inverted from its usual ‘demand-constrained’ state to a highly unusual ‘supply-constrained’ state. This…

  Australia’s CPI inflation eased from 3.8% y/y to a higher-than-expected 3.5% in July. The trimmed-mean measure eased from 4.1% to 3.8%. However, the Commonwealth Energy Bill Relief Fund rebates contributed to July’…

  US housing market data have been mixed. In June, the FHFA House Price index unexpectedly declined 0.1% m/m and the NAHB housing market index unexpectedly eased to 39 from a 41 reading. In July, starts and permits both…

  Last week, economists polled by Bloomberg revised their consensus 2024 US GDP forecasts upwards, from 2.3% to 2.5%. Government spending and private investment were both revised 0.3 ppts higher to 3.0% and 3.9%, respectively,…

  The market is currently expecting the Fed to cut rates by 100 bps over the course of 2024 and by another 120 bps throughout the first eight months of 2025. However, our Global Investment strategists expect the extent of 2024…

  During his Jackson Hole speech, Chair Powell dispelled any remaining doubts about a September rate cut. Still, easing monetary policy is unlikely to result in a soft landing. First, recessions have historically started shortly…

  The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence measure surprised to the upside in August, rising from 100.3 to 103.3, above expectations of 100.7. Consumers’ assessment of present economic conditions climbed 0.8 points to…

  According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, Sweden, which acts as a bellwether for the global economy, will offer early insight into whether our base-case late 2024/early 2025 recession scenario will…

  Preliminary estimates suggest that US durable goods orders growth rebounded sharply from a 6.9% m/m contraction to 9.9% growth in July, upending expectations of a more muted 5.0% monthly increase. However, a 34.8% m/m rise in…

  European regulatory carbon credits (EUAs) are becoming increasingly investable as an asset class. In a Special Report published last September, our Global Investment strategists agreed to the strategic bull case for EUAs, but…