Investors should focus on growth concerns rather than the “Trump trade.” Bond yields will fall in the short run due to cyclically disinflationary economic slowdown, rather than rise in anticipation of a Republican full sweep and…
As Trump’s victory odds rise, the underperformance of European equities deepens. How negative would a global trade war be for European assets?
It’s status quo for the SIFI banks, as they don’t see consumer credit performance materially worsening from now-normalized levels and they are not meaningfully exposed to commercial real estate losses.
We review some of the key data releases this week that we find have an impact on our currency strategy. Long yen positions make sense today. Long sterling and the euro bets are more of a judgment call, and we will fade any strength…
BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service remained tactically bullish on stocks for most of 2023, but shifted to neutral at the start of 2024, and downgraded stocks to underweight in late June. Its latest report…
Investors should overweight US assets and de-risk their portfolios in anticipation of a major increase in policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk surrounding the US election and its global ramifications.
BCA Research has been writing extensively on how consumption fueled by excess savings has been propping up the US economy and prevented a recession in 2023. Now, many estimates of pandemic-era excess savings show that they have…
Way back in the 1970s and 1980s, before investment returns were assessed in relation to benchmarks and return of capital had the upper hand over return on capital, BCA researchers were invited to consider the following thought…
US shelter inflation has been stubbornly high for the past few years, but we finally saw a notable drop in the June CPI release. Given that shelter accounts for more than 40% of the core CPI index, the outlook for shelter…
The latest iteration of the Fed’s Beige Book, a compilation of qualitative input sourced from business and other organizational contacts in each of its twelve Districts, was released Wednesday afternoon. The Beige Book…